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Who is the best horse in the world? The world champion? The relentlessly consistent performer? The new and exciting wonderkid? Or maybe we shouldn&rsquo;t rule out the returning former champ? This question is the fundamental heartbeat of fan engagement in the sport. It isn&rsquo;t a particularly difficult task to create the shortlist and differing opinions are both essential (for engagement) and valid. While it is both a fun and interesting conversation, it isn&rsquo;t the real why behind measuring performance in equestrian sport.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h3>Objective insights</h3>
Part of the why is about the ability to rate and order the top 4,000 horses in the sport rather than just the top 4 horses. What the experienced and intuitive expert minds can manage is vital knowledge with nuances that no machine will compete with. But what the machine can process is a volume of information that no mind can keep up with. It can be worked around the clock to find trends and patterns in the data that experts can then build upon. The machine becomes the base of the pyramid that supports the knowledge layers on top.
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The practical crunch-point for any team is around the 3rd, 4th and 5th best combinations in the squad depending on whether it is an Olympic (three) or normal (four) team selection. If there is an obvious gap between the final team position and the first reserve, then it&rsquo;s not such a big problem. It&rsquo;s highly unlikely that the decision will compromise the chance of success and it is probable that the person left off the team will understand why that decision was made.
When the call is close is when the objective and intelligent metrics really matter. The objectivity removes the emotion. In reality, there&rsquo;s probably very little difference between the two choices and so it&rsquo;s not about making the &lsquo;right&rsquo; or &lsquo;wrong&rsquo; choice. None of us have a crystal ball and no machine can predict the future with certainty. There might be more of a difference than you think, so of course there is the possibility of a marginal gain and an increase in the chance of success if your decision is backed by evidence and science. But often we are just trying to make the best decision and ensure that the sufferer can, in time, accept this decision and be motivated to improve rather than become disillusioned or negative towards management.
This is why the metrics used must matter. They must be intelligent and meaningful. This is not the time to quote a statistic that is meaningless. &lsquo;They finished 4th last time and you were only 6th in your last result&rsquo;. Firstly, one result is not a good predictor of future performance in this sport. Secondly, what was the context of that result? Even a five-star can vary from excruciatingly competitive to lacklustre at best in terms of quality. The course difficulty also varies and these factors matter. That&rsquo;s why EquiRatings designs the metrics that matter most. It&rsquo;s about more than predictive performance. It&rsquo;s about confidence from our clients.
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<h3>Raising the bar</h3>
It&rsquo;s hard to get people to look beyond selection when it comes to our data analytics services. But this next sentence is a game-changer for any athlete or professional in the area of performance management. HOW we run faster is through training, nutrition and recovery, but WHY we run faster is the stopwatch. The objective, measurable and accountable truth of our performance output is what drives the human athlete to reach new heights. Opinions and feelings will vary and fluctuate from day to day. But a true measurement of performance is a constant that will truly inspire progress.
Know where your performance is now. Know how you compare to others and know whether or not you are improving. This knowledge is not just vital feedback and validation for your training system, it is the fuel that will inspire you to the next level.

Images of McLain Ward, Laura Collett, Michael Jung and Daniel Deusser against a grid-paper background with ruler markings. By EquiRatings.

Why measure?

Since 2010, a total of 38 horses aged either eight or nine recorded wins in their 160 debuts at four or five-star level with 20 of those going on to achieve an Elo rating of at least 680 in their further career. While the majority were nine years old when taking on the huge milestone of jumping and winning a 160 track, eight of those winning debuts were produced by eight-year-old horses.
An impressive list of horses that features four of the current top ten highest-rated horses. Explosion W made his 160 debut back in April 2018 under the saddle of Ben Maher at the age of nine with a win at the LGCT of Shanghai. A win that has had a domino effect on this horse&rsquo;s career. The next day, this combination took the win in the LGCT Grand Prix of Shanghai, followed by a win in the LGCT Grand Prix in Madrid two weeks later. That same year, the chestnut gelding collected victories in the LGCT Grand Prix in Rome and Doha. A list of performances that were rewarded with an Elo of 772. To this day, no other horse has managed to score a higher Elo in their nine-year-old year. The following year, at the age of 10, Explosion W scored a new record. After yet another LGCT Grand Prix win, this time in New York, he achieved an Elo of 804, which to this day is the highest Elo-rating ever accomplished.
Daniel Deusser and Scuderia 1918 Tobago Z is a combination we know as one of the main pairs to beat in any top-level Grand Prix. A fact they have proven since their first attempt. The chestnut stallion made his 160 debut back in October 2017 at the age of nine, in the CSI5*-W Grand Prix of Oslo and immediately jumped into the spotlight by taking the win. Right now, Scuderia 1918 Tobago Z is the highest-rated horse on our Elo-rating as the only horse scoring over 800.
Way back in 2015, McLain Ward rode a little, bay, nine-year-old mare to victory in her first 160 five-star Grand Prix in Calgary. Eight years later and we still HH Azur winning Grand Prix at the highest level. At 17 years old, HH Azur is still the sixth highest-rated horse on our Elo-rating and is fresh off an outstanding win in the Rolex Major Grand Prix of &lsquo;s Hertogenbosch. As this is her second consecutive win in the Rolex Grand Slam series, McLain will receive a &euro;500,000 bonus with the chance of doubling that amount at a third win.
More recently, in 2021, Simon Delestre introduced nine-year-old Cayman Jolly Jumper to the 160 level of showjumping in the Grand Prix of La Coruna. At just their second show as a pair, this combination took the win by producing the only double clear in the field. Today, Cayman Jolly Jumper is the highest-rated 11-year-old in the sport with his eyes set on competing at his home Olympics in Paris next year.
Other names on the list include Solid Gold Z, Orient Express HDC, Mumbai, Kiana van het Herdershof among others that are or have been considered household names in the sport. One could therefore argue that an eight or a nine-year-old winning its 160 debut is a great predictor of future career success. An observation that bodes well for the future of Empoli de Champloue, newly named Tipperary, who made a winning 160 debut last year in the Grand Prix of Riyadh at the age of eight.

These horses won their 160 debut & now are rated among the best in the world

Shane Sweetnam&rsquo;s James Kann Cruz finished the 2022 season as the fourth-rated nine-year-old of all time with an Elo-rating of 758. His first upper-level outings as a ten-year-old shows great promise and a rise in his Elo.
Only three horses had better nine-year-old seasons since 2010 than James Kann Cruz. Explosion W was nine years of age in 2018 and has since gone on to become the Olympic Champion in Tokyo under Great Britain&rsquo;s Ben Maher, as well as carrying the title of highest-rated horse of all time on our Elo ranking.&nbsp;
Another name that needs no introduction is Big Star. At nine years of age, the bay stallion and Nick Skelton represented Great Britain at their home Olympics in 2012 with a team gold medal as a result. The pair came back fighting four years later to add an individual gold to their record at the Rio Olympic Games.
Just like Explosion W, Eddie Blue was nine years old in 2018. He was the youngest equine member of the US team that won gold at the World Equestrian Games in Tryon on home soil under Devin Ryan.
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Based on these observations, one could say a successful nine-year-old season serves as a great predictor of future career accomplishment. A statement that James Kann Cruz is fiercely trying to prove, with success so far. His first outing at the upper-level was more than promising with a double clear in the 1.60m five-star Grand Prix in Wellington, just finishing third behind two of the USA&rsquo;s leading horses, Baloutinue and Contagious. Two weeks later, the Irish-bred added another podium place to his record in a different 160 five-star Grand Prix in Wellington; finishing second only to Ladriano Z, who is five years his senior.
It's early days into the 2023 season, yet the promising Irish grey already ranks among the leading 10-year-olds of all time. Ranking 11th currently with an Elo-rating of 763, he already equals the successful 10-year-old seasons produced by Leone Jei and Caracole de la Roque in 2022 and Eddie Blue in 2019. &nbsp;
Could James Kann Cruz climb up into the top three of highest-rated ten-year-olds of all time currently occupied by Explosion W (2019), Big Star (2013) and HH Azur (2016)?

A stylized image of a birthday cake with lit candles on top of it displaying the number 10. Against a grid paper background.

The 10-year-old to watch in 2023

The High Performance Rating (HPR) is an objective measurement of a single performance. It introduces the valuable concept of a &lsquo;personal best&rsquo; (PB) that is so often the force that elevates performance in sport.
To test this metric, Sam and Nicole casually rattle through the top 40 performances of 2022! &lsquo;The list&rsquo; evokes plenty of memories from the jaw-dropping moments as the Geneva Grand Prix reached its climax to the slight surprise victors at some of the season highlights.
The dominance of Deusser features heavily, particularly as this &lsquo;top 40&rsquo; focuses solely on individual Grand Prixs and excludes the team competitions of Nations Cups and the World Championships.&nbsp;
So, without further delay and cutting straight to the top 10, here are the highlights:
Marlon Modolo Zanotelli (10) hits the top ten with a win in the Trophe de Geneve which was essentially the undercard. It shows the quality that turned up in Geneva this year and the venue features heavily in the top 40. VDL EDGAR M&rsquo;s Elo hit a 4-year low prior to Geneva (654) but he&rsquo;s back up to 695 after a very successful week in Geneva.
Nicola Philippaerts (9) just made the podium in the Aachen Grand Prix but that&rsquo;s enough to make our top 10. KATANGA VAN HET DINGESHOF is a regular on our &lsquo;top 10 rated horses&rsquo; (Elo) when he turns up at major shows. He may not feature in the headlines, but he features right at the business end of several performance metrics.
Shane Sweetnam (8) also claims a spot with a podium finish (3rd) in the Geneva Grand Prix. If you haven&rsquo;t heard of JAMES KANN CRUZ then you&rsquo;re living under a rock and you&rsquo;ve not been following EquiRatings. This is the best 9-year-old in the world in 2022 and one of the best youngsters we&rsquo;ve ever seen on ratings. This performance was a career PB and the icing on a very fruitful cake.
Steve Guerdat (7) takes us to another Rolex Grand Slam event, this time in Spruce Meadows and now for a runner-up position. VENARD DE CERISY claimed the title here in 2021 but the level of performance achieved on ratings are worlds apart. 2021 was significantly impacted in terms of field quality, but the rating for his 2022 performance shows that this horse is capable of holding his own amongst the world&rsquo;s best.&nbsp;
Michael Pender (6) might be the surprise for many on this list for his win in Riyadh with HHS CALAIS. This performance didn&rsquo;t just a PB performance but it also triggered a career peak Elo of 729 for this upwardly mobile combination.
Scott Brash (5) is the first of two runner-up finishers in Rolex Grand Slam events. His 2nd place at Aachen might have felt like an agonizing near miss at the time, but it sits in the top 5 performances of 2022 on figures.
Martin Fuchs (4) had emotions running high before a fence was even jumped in the Geneva Grand Prix. Clooney&rsquo;s retirement was one of the moments of 2022, but within a couple of hours we were taken to a completely different spectrum of emotion by the Swiss maestro. He took the lead as 12th to go in the jump-off aboard LEONE JEI who was looking for back-to-back wins in the class. There was only one competitor left to jump&hellip;
Daniel Deusser (3) was responsible for an incredible five of the top 25 individual performances of 2022. His win at Spruce Meadows with KILLER QUEEN VDM takes the third spot on our ratings.
Gerrit Nieberg (2) might not have been the first name on the shortlist for performance of the year at the beginning of 2022, but I&rsquo;m sure many would nominate his Aachen win aboard BEN 431 as a massive moment of the year. The performance to win the German feature is always going to challenge the top of the ratings, but this was a home favourite landing the decisive blow as the last to go. Quality, drama and the arrival of a new star to the top table.
McLain Ward (1) and HH AZUR might have all the experience, class and proven ability to win the highest quality of the year, but by the time they had to follow 12 of the best in the Geneva jump-off, the comfort zone must have been a distant spec in the rear-view mirror. They started with a level of pace that signified nothing was going to be left behind. They finished with a breathtaking round that delivered absolutely everything. The algorithm

Photo of rider Steve Guerdat against a grid paper background

Show jumping

Why measure?

These horses won their 160 debut & now are rated among the best in the world

These horses won their 160 debut & now are rated among the best in the world

The 10-year-old to watch in 2023

Top 40 performances of 2022

Stay Ahead with EquiRatings Insights