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<p>The Gothenburg Trophy presented by Volvo Cars is one of the most prestigious classes of the Gothenburg Horse Show, bringing together elite riders and horses for a high-stakes battle over CSI5 1.55m* fences.</p>
<h1><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/0ea40e4b-5512-484d-beaf-cd572c1b8d3a.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="Saturday"></h1>
<h1><br>The Favourites</h1>
<h3>Maikel van der Vleuten &amp; Beauville Z N.O.P.</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Elo Rating</strong>: 794 (5th highest Elo ever recorded)</li>
<li><strong>Predicted Clear Chance</strong>: 65%</li>
</ul>
<p>Van der Vleuten and Beauville Z N.O.P. enter this class as the favorites and boast one of the highest Elo ratings in history. Over the past 12 months, they have maintained an exceptional 65% clear rate at this level, a statistic that only a handful of horses worldwide can match. Their consistency and proven ability to jump clear make them the top contenders for the title.</p>
<h3>Max K&uuml;hner &amp; Elektric Blue P</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Elo Rating</strong>: 772</li>
<li><strong>Predicted Clear Chance</strong>: 57%</li>
</ul>
<p>K&uuml;hner and Elektric Blue P return to five-star competition for the first time in 2025, but their record speaks for itself. In 2024, they maintained one of the strongest 160cm clear rates, heading into the Paris Olympic Games on a flawless 12/12 record. Their experience at this level makes them a serious threat, even in such a competitive field.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h1>The Hometown Heroes</h1>
<h3>Henrik von Eckermann &amp; Iliana</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Elo Rating</strong>: 718</li>
<li><strong>Predicted Clear Chance</strong>: 48%</li>
</ul>
<p>As Sweden&rsquo;s World No. 1 rider, Henrik von Eckermann carries the hopes of the home crowd aboard Iliana. They come into this class in strong form, having won the Grand Prix of Basel last month, and back in October, they claimed two CSI5 155 class wins in Rabat*. Their ability to deliver under pressure makes them one of the home nation&rsquo;s best chances for victory.</p>
<h3>Peder Fredricson &amp; Alcapone des Carmille</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Elo Rating</strong>: 714</li>
<li><strong>Predicted Clear Chance</strong>: 47%</li>
</ul>
<p>Peder Fredricson is no stranger to success in this class, having won the Gothenburg Trophy in 2015 with H&amp;M All In when the horse was just nine years old. He now rides Alcapone des Carmille, a horse that finished second behind Willem Greve &amp; Highway in this very class last year. Having come so close in 2024, they will be highly motivated to go one better this time.</p>
<h3>Petronella Andersson &amp; Olympke van &lsquo;t Merelsnest</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Elo Rating</strong>: 627</li>
<li><strong>Predicted Clear Chance</strong>: 26%</li>
</ul>
<p>Andersson and Olympke van &lsquo;t Merelsnest enter this class riding the momentum of a win in Friday&rsquo;s CSI5 150 Prize of Mips*. While this will be Olympke&rsquo;s first competition at 155cm, her strong form from the previous day suggests she is up to the challenge. The Swedish crowd will be behind her as she aims to make her mark at this level.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h1>The Challengers</h1>
<h3>Harrie Smolders &amp; Mr. Tac</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Elo Rating</strong>: 680</li>
<li><strong>Predicted Clear Chance</strong>: 40%</li>
</ul>
<p>Mr. Tac is no stranger to success in Gothenburg, having won this class in 2023 with Victor Bettendorf in the saddle. Now partnered with Harrie Smolders, the horse has continued to thrive, with a CSI4 155 Grand Prix win in Maastricht last November* and a runner-up finish in the CSI5 155 Grand Prix of Mechelen*. Smolders is a master tactician, and with a horse that knows how to win here, they are a combination to watch.</p>
<h3>Mario Stevens &amp; Carrie 22</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Elo Rating</strong>: 707</li>
<li><strong>Predicted Clear Chance</strong>: 38%</li>
</ul>
<p>Mario Stevens and Carrie 22 bring one of the highest clear rates in the field, having jumped 9 rounds at 155+ level in the last year, with 5 of those being clear rounds (56%). In October, they claimed victory in the CSI5 155 Grand Prix of Oslo*, and they have already shown good form this week, having jumped clear in Thursday&rsquo;s 150 jump-off class here in Gothenburg. They could be a serious podium threat.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h1>What to Expect</h1>
<p>With past winners like Highway Tn N.O.P., Calisto Blue, and H&amp;M All In, the Gothenburg Trophy demands top-class performances from both horse and rider. The likely winning Elo rating will be 690+, putting the top-ranked combinations in a strong position.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Sweden has claimed four Gothenburg Trophy wins since 2015, and with von Eckermann, Fredricson, and Andersson leading the charge, there is a strong chance that a home rider could take the title once again. However, with Van der Vleuten, K&uuml;hner, and Smolders bringing elite horses and top form, it will be a battle to the very last fence.</p>
<p>With an electric crowd, world-class talent, and a prestigious title on the line, the 2025 Gothenburg Trophy is set to be an unforgettable night of show jumping.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>

Saturday in Gothenburg: Who Will Take the Crown in the 2025 Gothenburg Trophy?

<h2 dir="ltr"><strong>The Addiction of Prediction</strong></h2>
<p dir="ltr">At EquiRatings, prediction is more than a tool &mdash; it&rsquo;s an obsession. Our mission is to make equestrian sports more engaging, more insightful, and ultimately, more understandable. But prediction is often misunderstood. The real power of data isn&rsquo;t just in saying who will win; it&rsquo;s in explaining why a result happens &mdash; or why it doesn&rsquo;t.</p>
<p dir="ltr">This brings us to the most misinterpreted metric in our arsenal: <strong>Win Chance.</strong></p>
<p dir="ltr"><strong><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/e3d80c63-67a3-47c3-926a-fe7dcdb31292.jpg?width=4641&amp;height=4695" alt="Photo of the chestnut horse King Edward, ridden by Henrik von Eckermann clearing a show jumping obstacle at the Paris 2024 Olympics. King Edward get major air over the jump in an impressive fashion."></strong></p>
<p dir="ltr"><em style="font-size: 90%; color: #737373;">King Edward &amp; Henrik von Eckermann (SWE) at the Paris 2024 Olympics. You can see why King Edward was widely considered a favorite, but our predictions only gave him a 7% win chance, just 1% higher than next best (see below). King Edward did not win.</em></p>
<p dir="ltr"><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/588108a9-ac84-4c4f-a169-48c3d3253010.png?width=777&amp;height=947" alt="Table showing EquiRatings' top 10 win chances for individual jumping gold ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympics"></p>
<p dir="ltr"><em style="font-size: 90%; color: #737373;">Our pre-competition predictions for the individual Olympic jumping champion. You can see the full predictions, frozen in time, on our&nbsp;<strong><a href="https://jumping-prediction-centre.equiratings.com/competitions/41" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prediction centre</a></strong> (where we publish predictions for most major classes throughout the year).</em></p>
<h2 dir="ltr"><strong>Why Win Chance Isn&rsquo;t What You Think It Is</strong></h2>
<p dir="ltr">When people see our win chance percentages, they naturally focus on the favorite. That&rsquo;s human nature &mdash; we look for certainty. But here&rsquo;s the reality: in show jumping, a favorite might have a <strong>10% chance to win</strong>, and in eventing, that number might rise to <strong>20%</strong>. That means <strong>even the top horse is statistically more likely to lose than to win.</strong></p>
<p dir="ltr"><strong><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/acdaa09c-93e6-4373-ac90-b37e40ec4891.png?width=816&amp;height=1344" alt="Table showing the EquiRatings pre-competition win chances (top 10) for the Burghley 2024 Horse Trials"></strong></p>
<p dir="ltr"><em style="font-size: 90%; color: #737373;">Our top 10 win chances for Burghley 2024 as published in our&nbsp;<a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/1045408090/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fan guide</a> for the event. <strong>Lordships Graffalo</strong> did indeed win.</em></p>
<p dir="ltr">That&rsquo;s what makes equestrian sport so uniquely unpredictable. Unlike football, where a dominant team often has a <strong>50%+ chance of victory</strong>, horse sports operate in a world where the <strong>best in the world still have the odds stacked against them.</strong></p>
<p dir="ltr">Think about that from a competitor&rsquo;s perspective. Imagine riding <strong>King Edward</strong> (jumping) or <strong>Lordships Graffalo</strong> (eventing) &mdash; clearly the best in the world &mdash; yet knowing it&rsquo;s <strong>highly probable you won&rsquo;t even medal, let alone win</strong>. That&rsquo;s pressure. That&rsquo;s the brutal reality of horse sport.</p>
<p dir="ltr"><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/7964b876-3a34-4427-bef0-bacbcc1d740f.png?width=816&amp;height=1344" alt="Table showing EquiRatings' top 10 win chances for the Grand Prix of Ireland at the 2024 Dublin Horse Show"></p>
<p dir="ltr"><em style="font-size: 90%; color: #737373;">Our top 10 win chances for the 2024 Rolex Grand Prix of Ireland, as published in our <a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/225256138/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fan guide</a> for the class. <strong>Callas</strong> did </em><em><span style="font-size: 90%; color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">not end up </span></em><em style="font-size: 90%; color: #737373;">winning but <strong>Martin Fuchs</strong> &amp;<strong> Conner Jei</strong> did.</em></p>
<h2 dir="ltr"><strong>So, Why Bother with Metrics?</strong></h2>
<p dir="ltr">Because numbers tell the <strong>story behind the sport.</strong></p>
<h3 dir="ltr">For fans:</h3>
<p dir="ltr">For&nbsp;<strong>fans</strong>, win chances help set the stage. They introduce the <strong>underdogs, the favorites, and the history-makers</strong> before a competition begins. They help us understand when an outsider has defied the odds or when a big name has lived up to expectations.</p>
<h3 dir="ltr">For management:</h3>
<p dir="ltr">For&nbsp;<strong>management</strong>, EquiRatings provides <strong>an independent, objective voice </strong>&mdash; not replacing instinct or experience, but complementing it. We validate what people already feel, highlight names that deserve more attention, and sometimes, challenge conventional wisdom.</p>
<h3 dir="ltr">For competitors:</h3>
<p dir="ltr">For <strong>competitors</strong>, win chances aren&rsquo;t about one-off results. A single outcome can be misleading in either direction. What truly matters is <strong>moving the needle over time</strong>. Metrics give feedback on the process and that feedback fuels focus and motivation.</p>
<h3 dir="ltr">For purchasers &amp; vendors:</h3>
<p dir="ltr">For <strong>purchasers and vendors</strong>, decision-making is greatly aided by insight and context. How much is a horse worth? How many suitable horses are available? How does this horse compare to others based on what it has achieved and how much it costs? Finding horses is tough-going when you can&rsquo;t start by evaluating every horse in the world based on performance. Making decisions is tough-going when you can't list, rank and compare horses based on their performance and their price. We now have a full team dedicated to solving these problems and the traction is growing rapidly <strong><a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/987655522/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">(see our product guide here)</a>.&nbsp;</strong></p>
<h2 dir="ltr">Founders Final Thought</h2>
<p dir="ltr">Being first with equestrian analytics has been a journey. Creating solutions to challenges within the sport is fun, stimulating and rewarding. The ideas are often the easy bit &mdash; the real challenge, and satisfaction, is how we communicate the purpose, learn from the feedback and refine the execution so these new innovations and approaches truly take-off.&nbsp;</p>
<h2 dir="ltr">Final Thoughts</h2>
<p dir="ltr">Thanks for reading! For fresh insights, follow us at&nbsp;<a href="news.equiratings.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">news.equiratings.com</a>. To learn more about our services, visit <a href="equiratings.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">equiratings.com.</a></p>

Images of Ros canter with the bay horse Lordships Graffalo during a horse inspection and of a happy Henrik von Eckermann riding the chestnut King Edward after an Olympic round.

The Most Misunderstood Metric in Equestrian Sport: Why Win Chance Matters

<p>Sweden has a strong tradition of success in this class, with two of the last three winners coming from the host nation. This year, the local crowd will have plenty of reasons to cheer.</p>
<h1><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/2b2a3e36-f318-4ead-ad61-22ebb734610d.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="Thursday (4)"></h1>
<h1>&nbsp;</h1>
<h1>The Hometown Heroes</h1>
<h3>Peder Fredricson &amp; Catch Me Not S</h3>
<p>A Swedish legend, Peder Fredricson enters with the highest-rated Swedish horse of the weekend, Catch Me Not S, boasting an Elo of 742. While his main focus may be Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup qualifier&mdash;where he needs a strong podium finish to secure a World Cup Final spot&mdash;he will no doubt be looking for a confidence-boosting result in front of the home fans.</p>
<h3>Henrik von Eckermann &amp; Toveks Azaria Dinero</h3>
<p>Henrik von Eckermann, the reigning World No.1, will also take center stage. Toveks Azaria Dinero is a relatively new horse for Henrik, having only taken over the ride from his student Evelina Tovek in November. However, they have already shown their competitiveness, securing two Top 8 finishes in 150 and 155 classes in La Coru&ntilde;a, as well as a strong 4th place in a 160 class in Geneva. The home crowd will be behind them as they look to continue their upward trajectory.</p>
<h3>Jens Fredricson &amp; Diarado&rsquo;s Rose Elith</h3>
<p>Another Swedish favorite, Jens Fredricson, enters with a 5% win chance, keeping him in the conversation among the top contenders. They showed solid form in Thursday&rsquo;s 150 jump-off class, incurring just 4 faults, and will be aiming to build on that performance.</p>
<h1><br>The International Challengers</h1>
<p><em>A handful of international stars will be looking to spoil the Swedish party.</em></p>
<h3>Maikel van der Vleuten &amp; Elwikke</h3>
<p>Coming in as one of the top favorites with a 9% win chance, Maikel van der Vleuten and Elwikke have already made their mark in Gothenburg. They finished third in the 145 speed class on Thursday and have proven themselves highly competitive at this level, with podium finishes in both 145 and 150 classes in Madrid last year. A serious contender for victory.</p>
<h3>Max K&uuml;hner &amp; EIC Up Too Jacco Blue</h3>
<p>Also entering with a 9% win chance, Max K&uuml;hner brings a consistent and highly competitive mount in EIC Up Too Jacco Blue. Expect them to be near the top of the leaderboard if they find their rhythm.</p>
<h3>Martin Fuchs &amp; L&amp;L Lorde</h3>
<p>The Swiss superstar Martin Fuchs brings an exciting up-and-coming horse in L&amp;L Lorde. In the past 12 months, this pair has a perfect record in 5* 150 classes, with 5 clears from 5 rounds. They also finished 7th in yesterday&rsquo;s 145 speed class, showing they are in strong form heading into Friday&rsquo;s showdown.</p>
<h1><br>Building on Yesterday&rsquo;s Success</h1>
<p><em>A handful of riders will be carrying momentum into this class after strong performances in Thursday&rsquo;s 150 jump-off.</em></p>
<p><strong>Wilma Hellstr&ouml;m and Mr Vain</strong> delivered a solid performance in Thursday&rsquo;s 150 jump-off, finishing seventh with a confident double-clear round. Though still gaining experience at this level, their form suggests they are steadily improving.&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Marco Kutscher and Catelly</strong> also impressed yesterday, securing eighth place with another double-clear effort. This result reinforces their already strong record, having now jumped clear in all three of their 150-level starts at CSI4* and CSI5* over the past year.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Meanwhile,<strong> Mario Stevens and Carrie 22</strong> continued their streak of consistency, adding yet another first-round 5* 150 clear to their name. With an outstanding 82% clear rate at this level, they head into tonight&rsquo;s class as one of the most reliable combinations in the field.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h1>Tuning Up for Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup</h1>
<p><em>Some of the biggest names in the sport will be using this class as a key preparation round ahead of Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup qualifier.</em></p>
<h3>Harrie Smolders &amp; Monaco</h3>
<p>With a 9% win chance, Harrie Smolders enters as one of the favorites, but he may take this as an opportunity to fine-tune Monaco for Sunday&rsquo;s major test.</p>
<h3>Denis Lynch &amp; Vistogrand</h3>
<p>A proven performer at 5* 150 level, Vistogrand has jumped clear in 10 of 13 rounds at this height over the past year. Denis is looking for valuable World Cup points in Gothenburg, needing a Top 9 finish on Sunday to stay in contention for a Finals spot in Basel.</p>
<h1><br>Who Will Reign in Gothenburg?</h1>
<p>With past winners of this class showcasing a mix of international stars and home favorites, history suggests a tightly contested battle. Can Sweden claim another victory in front of their home crowd, or will one of the traveling challengers steal the show? One thing is certain&mdash;Friday night will be fast, furious, and full of drama.</p>
<p><strong>Let the race for the Agria Prize begin!</strong></p>

Friday in Gothenburg: A Night of Thrills in the Agria Prize

<p>The excitement is building at the Gothenburg Horse Show as the International 1.50m class with jump-off, presented by AJ Produkte, promises a thrilling battle between seasoned champions and rising stars. With top contenders vying for victory and a prediction center crunching the numbers, all eyes are on tonight&rsquo;s showdown. Will the hometown heroes rise to the occasion, or will challengers steal the spotlight?</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/5a532b7e-4c56-4308-9122-ef9da2f86309.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="Thursday (8)"></p>
<h2>Hometown Heroes: Can Sweden Shine Again?</h2>
<p>Sweden's finest are ready to put on a show in front of an electric home crowd. <strong>Henrik von Eckermann&rsquo;s Iliana</strong> enters as the clear favorite, backed by a recent Grand Prix win in Basel and a history of success in this very class, having claimed victory in 2023.</p>
<p><strong>Peder Fredricson &amp; Alcapone des Carmille </strong>are strong contenders as well, boasting a 6% win chance and an impressive career-high Elo rating of 723. They started the year on a high note with a podium finish in a 150 jump-off class in Amsterdam.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Meanwhile,<strong> Jens Fredricson &amp; Diarado&rsquo;s Rose Elith</strong> return to five-star competition after a four-month hiatus, with a 5% win probability. Their national success, including a victory in the 150 Grand Prix of Gothenburg last August, adds an extra layer of intrigue to their performance tonight.</p>
<h2>Challengers on the Rise: Who Can Upset the Favorites?</h2>
<p>While the Swedish stars have home advantage, several challengers are entering the arena with equally strong credentials. <strong>Maikel van der Vleuten &amp; O&rsquo;Bailey vh Brouwershof NOP</strong> enter with a 6% win chance, maintaining a stellar record of never incurring more than four penalties in their last eight CSI4*/CSI5* 150+ rounds. <strong>Max K&uuml;hner&rsquo;s EIC Up Too Jacco Blue</strong> is another major player, coming off a clear round in Bordeaux&rsquo;s World Cup and a strong return to five-star level after a strategic break from competition.</p>
<p><strong>Steve Guerdat &amp; Looping Luna</strong> bring plenty of experience and momentum after winning a 155 class in Leipzig last month. They stand on a 6% win probability&mdash;enough to make them a serious threat.</p>
<p>Dutch rider <strong>Kim Emmen &amp; Imagine</strong> also carry a 6% win chance and could use this class as a stepping stone toward her ultimate goal&mdash;earning crucial World Cup points here in Gothenburg.</p>
<h2>The Dark Horses: Who Could Spring a Surprise?</h2>
<p>Among the outsiders looking to shake up the leaderboard, Mario Stevens &amp; Carrie 22 have maintained an outstanding 80% clear rate (8/10) in CSI5* 150 competitions over the last year, making them a formidable duo. Their win probability stands at 6%, and with their past triumph in Oslo&rsquo;s 155 Grand Prix, they are well-positioned to fight for the top spot.</p>
<p>Another name to watch is <strong>Donald Whitaker &amp; Ulania 3</strong>, who have demonstrated remarkable consistency, boasting eight clear rounds out of 14 at the CSI5 150 level* in the past year. With two Top 4 finishes in London&rsquo;s World Cup show, they have proven they can handle the pressure on the big stage.</p>
<h2><br>The Stage is Set&mdash;Who Will Emerge Victorious?</h2>
<p>With Iliana and von Eckermann leading the charge, Fredricson brothers adding firepower, and an elite international lineup ready to pounce, tonight&rsquo;s 150 jump-off class is shaping up to be an exciting battle at the Gothenburg Horse Show. Will statistics and form hold true, or will we witness an unexpected triumph?</p>
<p><strong>Stay tuned as the action unfolds!</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>

Thursday in Gothenburg: Who Will Conquer Tonight's Jump-Off Class?

<p dir="ltr">With just one qualifier remaining before the Longines FEI Jumping World Cup&trade; Final in Basel, the Western European League has delivered an unforgettable season of thrilling victories, breakout performances, and dramatic battles.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Instead of just recapping the season, we&rsquo;ve gone straight to the riders who made the headlines&mdash;in their own words.</p>
<p dir="ltr">From Oslo to Bordeaux, here&rsquo;s the story of the season as told straight from the saddle.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/ff5d29d1-5b0c-4dce-9c7d-3a910350f3ff.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="1"></p>
<p>The season opener saw 40 athletes battle through a tight, technical course at the Telenor Arena, where only four made the jump-off&mdash;a clear sign of the challenge posed. Wathelet and Bond Jamesbond de Hay proved uncatchable in his first indoor appearance of the season, setting the pace for what would be a sensational campaign.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/e90ef445-830a-41fb-9832-f17291c5d9de.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="2"></p>
<p>The technical Helsinki track saw 13 athletes make the jump-off, testing riders' ability to balance speed and control. Robert Whitaker and Vermento delivered a flawless, well-timed round, earning their first World Cup win of the season.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/6f4496e8-a137-4f49-ac28-a8be06b52538.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="3"></p>
<p>A tightly contested event, Lyon featured one of the fastest jump-offs of the season. Richard Vogel and United Touch S executed a bold shortcut to the oxer, making the difference in an incredibly competitive field.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/6076ecb7-03a1-48fc-bf57-495730ca4e55.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="4"></p>
<p>One of the season&rsquo;s biggest breakout moments, Sophie Hinners and Iron Dames My Prins took their first-ever World Cup win. The five-horse jump-off saw Hinners outpace her seasoned rivals, including Olympic Champion Ben Maher and three-time World Cup Final winner Marcus Ehning.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/e3e2a2b8-461d-43a0-91b0-a615b7f87cdc.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="5"></p>
<p>Vogel made it two wins in three weeks, delivering a textbook round on United Touch S to take the Stuttgart title, further strengthening his World Cup campaign.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/af9ab69c-c284-4e6b-8067-264b7c2f755d.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="6"></p>
<p>The sixth leg of the season saw 10 riders qualify for the jump-off, with Bucci and Hantano delivering a flawless performance to become the first Italian pair to win the Madrid leg in history.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/0b9469c9-4f83-49e5-b470-d3aacd6919c6.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="7"></p>
<p>A 14-horse jump-off saw Weishaupt and Coby 8 edge out the competition by less than half a second, marking his second career World Cup win.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/e9a3c150-aaec-4eac-9a96-112291f521b5.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="8"></p>
<p>A five-rider jump-off saw Darragh Kenny and Eddy Blue dethrone defending champion Ben Maher, securing a dream victory in front of a roaring British crowd.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/3652e4db-97f0-4c1e-b333-75f00e7d86ac.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="9"></p>
<p>Dreher secured his first-ever World Cup win after an intense battle against Belgian favorite Gilles Thomas, shaving just 0.08 seconds off the lead.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/d025b1e5-c9a5-4bf7-bc4c-63036fceb53e.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="10"></p>
<p>Epaillard put on a speed masterclass, storming to victory with Donatello d&rsquo;Auge, securing his spot in the World Cup Final.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/7d7318c4-85b8-4c71-896c-375ea09ef1d5.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="11"></p>
<p>A 13-horse jump-off provided one of the closest battles of the season. Hans-Dieter Dreher set the early pace with a 41.55-second round, but Greve and Highway TN N.O.P. shaved a full second off, clocking 40.52 seconds. French star Simon Delestre finished second, with Dreher third in a high-class showdown.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/176f60de-15a4-425d-b01e-d16d86dce0ac.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="12"></p>
<p>Riding the 17-year-old Sterrehof&rsquo;s Dante, Marc Houtzager became a two-time Amsterdam champion, repeating his 2020 victory. Against a six-horse jump-off, his flawless execution and tight turns secured an emotional home win.</p>
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<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/6c93b986-21c8-4662-accf-4a22950a10b7.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="13"></p>
<p>A must-win event for Martin Fuchs, Bordeaux saw him and Conner Jei rise to the occasion. After struggling early in the season, Fuchs delivered two clear rounds, securing victory over Pieter Devos and Willem Greve. His faultless performance ensured qualification for Basel.</p>

What the Winners Said: The Western European League in the Words of Its Champions

<h2>A Stellar Season, But Not a Guarantee</h2>
<p>Richard Vogel has had an exceptional campaign in the 2024-2025 Longines FEI Jumping World Cup&trade; Western European League, securing two major victories in Stuttgart and Lyon aboard his outstanding stallion, United Touch S. With 42 points, he sits in 14th place in the standings&mdash;historically a safe position for Basel qualification.</p>
<p>Yet, in the unpredictable world of show jumping, no position is truly secure until the final points are counted. And while the odds are in Vogel&rsquo;s favor, there remains a slim chance he could be pushed out of the Top 18.</p>
<p>According to EquiRatings' predictive analysis, the probability of Vogel missing out on Basel sits at around 7%&mdash;low, but not impossible.</p>
<h2>What Would Need to Happen for Vogel to Miss Out?</h2>
<p>For Richard Vogel <span style="text-decoration: underline;">not</span> to qualify, <em>at least five of the following eight scenarios</em> would need to occur in Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup in Gothenburg:</p>
<ul>
<li>Peder Fredricson wins</li>
<li>Mario Stevens finishes on the podium</li>
<li>Harrie Smolders finishes 5th or higher</li>
<li>Edouard Schmitz finishes 7th or higher</li>
<li>Kim Emmen finishes 8th or higher</li>
<li>Denis Lynch finishes 9th or higher</li>
<li>Steve Guerdat finishes 14th or higher</li>
<li>Maikel van der Vleuten finishes 14th or higher</li>
</ul>
<p>Each of these riders would need a high finish to collect enough points to push Vogel down the standings. The challenge? Many of these scenarios are unlikely to happen all at once.</p>
<h2><br>Final Verdict: A Safe Bet, But Not a Lock</h2>
<p>While five out of these eight scenarios happening simultaneously is a long shot, it&rsquo;s not impossible. Vogel will not be competing in Gothenburg, meaning his fate rests entirely on the performances of others.</p>
<p>With a 93% chance of qualifying, Vogel and his team can be cautiously optimistic. But as the final leg in Gothenburg approaches, every rail, stride, and time fault could play a role in deciding the final list of competitors heading to Basel 2025.</p>
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Against the Odds: Could Richard Vogel Miss the World Cup Final Qualification?

<p>After 13 intense qualifiers, the battle for the last remaining tickets to the FEI Jumping World Cup&trade; Final is coming to a dramatic close at the Gothenburg Horse Show in the legendary Scandinavium Arena. Only the top 18 riders in the Western European League standings will qualify for Basel, but with just one event left, the leaderboard is still in flux.</p>
<h2>The Final Countdown: What&rsquo;s at Stake in Gothenburg?</h2>
<p>A handful of riders can relax, their qualification guaranteed. Others are walking a tightrope, knowing that a single rail down could be the difference between competing in Basel or staying home. And then there are those who need nothing short of a spectacular performance to make a last-minute leap into the Top 18.</p>
<p>Here&rsquo;s how the standings look heading into Gothenburg and what each rider needs to secure their place.</p>
<h2>Safe for Basel: Already Qualified and Ready for the Final</h2>
<p>A number of athletes need not to worry about their qualification for the World Cup Finals in Basel and are sure of their spot. League leader, <strong>Kevin Staut</strong>, while present at the Gothenburg Horse Show, does not need to worry about chasing points, as he is already sure of his place in the Finals after having collected 70 points throughout the &lsquo;24-&rsquo;25 Western European League. As a matter of fact, the current Top 14 ranked riders in the FEI Western European World Cup standings can be relatively sure of their qualification for Basel.</p>
<p>The current #14 ranked rider in that list is the German phenomenon, <strong>Richard Vogel</strong>, who in the saddle of his incredible stallion, United Touch S, won two World Cup qualifiers in Stuttgart and Lyon. As he won&rsquo;t be competing in Gothenburg this weekend, he will complete his &lsquo;24-&rsquo;25 World Cup campaign on 42 points. While he can be almost sure of his spot in the Finals in Basel, there is a very small chance those 42 points would not suffice.</p>
<h3>What Would Need to Happen for Richard Vogel Not to Qualify for Basel?</h3>
<p>For <strong>Richard Vogel</strong> not to qualify for the World Cup Finals in Basel, at least five of the following eight scenarios would need to occur in Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup in Gothenburg:</p>
<ul>
<li>Peder Fredricson wins</li>
<li>Mario Stevens finishes on the podium</li>
<li>Harrie Smolders finishes 5th or higher</li>
<li>Edouard Schmitz finishes 7th or higher</li>
<li>Kim Emmen finishes 8th or higher</li>
<li>Denis Lynch finishes 9th or higher</li>
<li>Steve Guerdat finishes 14th or higher</li>
<li>Maikel van der Vleuten finishes 14th or higher</li>
</ul>
<p>According to the brains behind the EquiRatings Predictive Analysis, the chances of Richard Vogel not qualifying for the 2025 World Cup Finals in Basel lies between 5%-10%.</p>
<h2><br>On the Edge: Riders Fighting to Hold Their Spot</h2>
<p><em>A total of 6 riders are competing in Gothenburg with a goal to secure their ticket to the 2025 Basel World Cup Finals.</em></p>
<h3>Holding Steady: Staying in the Top 18</h3>
<p>While both <strong>Maikel van der Vleuten</strong> (#15) and <strong>Steve Guerdat</strong> (#17) are currently in the safe zone on 40 points, they could do with a couple more points to ensure their spot in Basel. Both riders come in with strong irons in the fire.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Maikel&rsquo;s <strong><em>Beauville Z N.O.P.</em></strong> is currently the second-highest rated horse in the world and in the form of his life, reaching a career-high Elo rating of 794, one of the Top 5 highest Elo ratings ever recorded. He is also the reigning Olympic Individual Bronze medalist.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Steve comes in on another individual Olympic medalist. On <em><strong>Dynamix de Belheme</strong></em>, he claimed Silver in Paris and will try to score some additional World Cup points to be able to compete in World Cup Finals on home soil.</p>
<h3>Last Call for Basel: Who Can Break into the Top 18?</h3>
<p>No rider has had quite the start to 2025 as <strong>Denis Lynch</strong>. Fresh off a double clear to help Team Ireland secure victory in the first Longines League of Nations in Abu Dhabi on <em><strong>Vistogrand</strong></em>, the pair comes to Gothenburg to try and claim a spot in the Finals. Currently ranked just outside the qualification zone in 19th place on 35 points. The current cut-off for the Finals lies at 37 points and will likely end up around the 42 point-mark. To get to that threshold, Denis would need 7 additional World Cup points, which translates to finishing in 10th place or higher in Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup.</p>
<p>Currently in 20th place on 34 points, <strong>Kim Emmen</strong> comes to Gothenburg with a real fighting chance at qualification for Basel. To get to the projected 42-point qualification threshold, Kim would need to finish 9th or higher in the Gothenburg World Cup. She has entered her Olympic partner, <strong><em>Imagine</em></strong>, with whom she had finished 6th in last year&rsquo;s Gothenburg World Cup.</p>
<p>Just like Steve Guerdat, <strong>Edouard Schmitz</strong> is also still vying for a place to compete in World Cup Finals in his home country. He is in need of 9 World Cup points to reach the projected 40-point threshold, which translates to a 8th place finish or higher on Sunday.</p>
<p>To get to his eighth World Cup Finals, <strong>Harrie Smolders</strong> will likely need at least 11 more points. He currently sits in 22nd place on the World Cup standings and would likely need an 6th place or higher in Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup. He brings an exciting string of horses to the table including his Geneva Grand Prix winner, <em><strong>Monaco</strong></em>.</p>
<h2><br>Do or Die: Riders Who Must Deliver in Gothenburg</h2>
<p><em>Four additional riders are currently well outside the qualification zone, but with a podium performance in Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup of Gothenburg could claim a spot in the World Cup Finals in Basel.</em></p>
<p><strong>Mario Stevens</strong> has already collected 29 World Cup points and stands in 26th position in the standings. A podium position would give the German at least 15 more points, he could boost himself up the standings and qualify for the Finals.</p>
<p>As <strong>Yuri Mansur</strong> represents Brazil, he will not take a spot of the 18 qualified riders from the Western European League, but if he matches the amount of points of the lowest qualified rider in this league, he could enter the Finals as an extra. To get to the projected 42 point threshold, he would need to finish second or higher in Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup.</p>
<p>The chances for Gothenburg home crowd are in the very capable hands of <strong>Peder Fredricson</strong>. He currently stands in 30th place in the World Cup standings on 24 points. To qualify for the Finals, the Swedish star would need to put in a huge performance in Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup and take the win to add 20 World Cup points to his tally. In <em><strong>Catch Me Not S</strong></em>, he has a very experienced partner on his hands who knows how to perform in the Scandinavium Arena. The pair finished third in the World Cup here last year and also claimed bronze in the 2019 World Cup Finals held in Gothenburg.&nbsp;</p>
<p>A win on Sunday could also bring <strong>Geraldine Straumann </strong>to her first World Cup Finals. So far, she has collected 22 World Cup points and the 20 points for the victory could give her enough points to qualify for Basel.</p>
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<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/ff71ec7e-0cde-4b8d-9b61-a91bb957ac4b.png?width=1316&amp;height=3100" alt="2 Cb04 the Road to Basel the Western European World Cup Standings Ahead of the Final Leg in Gothenburg "></p>
<hr>
<p>With the final qualification spots on the line, Gothenburg promises to be a heart-pounding battle. Some riders will secure their dream of competing at World Cup Finals, while others will leave Sweden devastated, knowing they came up just short.</p>
<p>As we head into one of the most critical events of the FEI World Cup season, one thing is certain:</p>
<h3><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>It&rsquo;s all or nothing in Gothenburg.</strong></span></h3>

The Road to Basel: The Riders on the Brink as Gothenburg Decides the Final 18

<p>The stage is set for an electrifying weekend of show jumping in Abu Dhabi, with Sweden's Rolf-G&ouml;ran Bengtsson and Zuccero HV headlining an impressive roster of elite combinations. The Swedish partnership enters the competition as the highest-rated pair, boasting an impressive Elo rating of 754 that places them among the world's top 30 combinations.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/9d4c43a2-7e0d-44e9-bb31-43acd986df96.png?width=1520&amp;height=1726" alt="Tt F Wp Stars of the Show for the Longines League of Nations of Abu Dhabi 2025 (2)"></p>
<h2>French Dominance on Paper</h2>
<p>Team France arrives in Abu Dhabi with formidable firepower, fielding three combinations ranked within the top 10 of this weekend's competitive field. The French squad's strength in depth is evident through Simon Delestre's <strong>Cayman Jolly Jumper</strong> (753), Jeanne Sadran's <strong>Dexter de Kerglenn</strong> (748), and Kevin Staut's <strong>Visconti du Telman</strong> (735), representing three of France's current top five rated horses.</p>
<h2>Strong Form, Early in 2025</h2>
<p>Despite being just six weeks into the new year, several combinations have already demonstrated exceptional form at the highest level.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Ireland's Denis Lynch and <strong>Vistogrand</strong> have made a remarkable start to 2025, securing three five-star podium finishes at prestigious World Cup shows in Basel and Amsterdam. Their outstanding form bodes well for Ireland's defense of their 2024 League of Nations title.</p>
<p>Great Britain's Tim Gredley and <strong>Imperial HBF</strong> have also hit the ground running, claiming three top-10 finishes at major competitions this year. As the highest-rated British combination in Abu Dhabi, they'll be looking to convert their early-season momentum into team success.</p>
<h2>New Partnerships Making Their Mark</h2>
<p>The competition will showcase several exciting new combinations making their five-star debuts. Germany's Katrin Eckermann will partner with <strong>Iron Dames Dialou Blue PS</strong>, a horse that comes with impressive credentials having built its 753 Elo rating under previous rider Kevin Staut.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Another noteworthy debut will feature Sophie Hinners aboard<strong> Iron Dames Combella</strong>, a partnership formed just a month ago following the horse's transition from Shane Sweetnam's string.</p>
<h2>Historic Italian Debut</h2>
<p>Adding extra intrigue to this year's competition, Italy makes its historic Longines League of Nations debut with a surprisingly strong hand. The Italian team features two combinations ranked among the top 10 in Abu Dhabi: Emanuele Camilli with the promising <strong>Odense Odeveld</strong>, a horse that has drawn attention over the past two years, and Giulia Martinengo Marquet with <strong>Delta del'Isle</strong>, who brings solid Grand Prix form from 2024 into this team competition.</p>

High Stakes in the Emirates: French Powerhouse Squad Headlines 2025 Longines League of Nations

<p>In a sport where consistency is king, only four riders have managed to maintain a clear round rate above 50% at five-star 160 level over the past year. Let's dive into the numbers that set these partnerships apart.</p>
<p><br>The reliability of <strong>Malin Baryard-Johnsson</strong> &amp; <em>H&amp;M Indiana</em> at the highest level has been nothing short of extraordinary. The Swedish combination has produced an impressive 54% clear rate, delivering 13 clears from 24 rounds. Their record gains even more weight considering only four rounds resulted in more than 5 penalties, showcasing remarkable consistency when the fences stand at their highest.</p>
<p>Speaking of Swedish excellence, <strong>Henrik von Eckermann</strong> has been one of the busiest athletes at this level. Across 68 rounds with six different horses, he's maintained a 53% clear rate - translating to 36 fault-free performances. <em>King Edward</em> leads his string with a phenomenal 76% clear rate, while <em>Iliana </em>adds depth with 52%. The statistics reveal one complexity in this impressive record: 18% of rounds ended with more than 8 penalties, showing that even the sport's very best aren't immune to occasional difficulties.</p>
<p>Belgium's <strong>Gregory Wathelet</strong> has found his formula for success, achieving a 51% clear rate from 37 rounds spread across five horses. <em>Bond Jamesbond de Hay</em> stands out as his most prolific partner, converting 11 of 18 rounds into clears at the highest level.</p>
<p>Rounding out this elite group is Germany's <strong>Janne Friederike Meyer-Zimmermann</strong>, whose 50% clear rate tells only half the story. The true highlight lies in her consistency, with only three rounds incurring 5 or more penalties across all her five-star 160 starts. This reliability proved crucial in the Cannes Stars powered by Iron Dames' victory in the 2024 GCL season, particularly valuable in competitions without drop scores.</p>
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<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/b7621b6a-317d-4f78-91eb-aaaed459c18d.png?width=2180&amp;height=1350" alt="K2 I8 C the Most Consistent Five Star 160 Riders Over the Past 12 Months (1)"></p>

The 50% Club: Elite Consistency at Five-Star Level 

<p>In the high-stakes world of five-star show jumping, consistency is everything. The 2024 season has showcased some remarkable partnerships between horse and rider, with several combinations achieving extraordinary clear rates at the sport's highest level. Let's dive into the statistics and stories behind these performances.</p>
<p><br>Among combinations that contested at least ten 5* 160cm classes in 2024, the clear rates tell a compelling story of excellence. The numbers reveal outstanding performances from both established partnerships and rising stars in the sport.</p>
<h2>Leone Jei &amp; Martin Fuchs: Defining Dominance</h2>
<p>Swiss maestro Martin Fuchs and Leone Jei have achieved something truly remarkable - maintaining an 82% clear rate across 17 rounds at the five-star 160cm level. This feat hasn't been seen since 2016, when Peder Fredricson's H&amp;M All In (87% from 15 rounds) and Rolf-Goran Bengtsson's Casall ASK (82% from 22 rounds) set the bar. Their consistency translated into major victories throughout the season, with the pair securing wins in the LLN Grand Prix of Ocala, the Rolex Grand Prix of Windsor, the Rolex Grand Slam Grand Prix of Calgary, and the Rolex Top 10 Final in Geneva.</p>
<h2>King Edward &amp; Henrik von Eckermann: Breaking Records</h2>
<p>Early in the season, this remarkable partnership reached new heights by breaking their own Elo rating record, pushing it to an unprecedented 822 points. Their successful defense of the World Cup title in Riyadh highlighted their exceptional talent. While they faced some challenges later in the season, including a disappointing Olympic Games and some jump-off difficulties, their clear rate of 73% across 26 rounds at the highest level remains more than &nbsp;impressive.</p>
<h2>Messi van 't Ruytershof &amp; Janne F. Meyer-Zimmerman: Rising Stars</h2>
<p>The German combination proved themselves as serious contenders throughout the season, maintaining a 67% clear rate across 18 rounds. Their year was marked by triumph in the LGCT Grand Prix of Cannes, followed by impressive podium finishes in the LGCT Grands Prix of Rome and Rabat. As key contributors to the Cannes Stars powered by Iron Dames' GCL victory, they demonstrated their ability to perform consistently at the highest level.</p>
<h2>The Complete Rankings</h2>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/6b69d0fb-db84-4605-9fc2-ca7a690f4dbb.png?width=1280&amp;height=1550" alt="Sk4hz Top Clear Rates at Five Star 160 Level in 2024 (1)"></p>
<p><br>The 2024 season has showcased extraordinary performances at the highest level of show jumping. Leone Jei and Martin Fuchs' achievement of maintaining an over 80% clear rate stands out as particularly remarkable, matching a standard not seen in eight years. These statistics not only highlight the exceptional quality of these horses and riders but also demonstrate the increasing competitiveness of modern show jumping at the five-star level.</p>
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Show jumping