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<h2 dir="ltr">The Addiction of Prediction</h2>
At EquiRatings, prediction is more than a tool &mdash; it&rsquo;s an obsession. Our mission is to make equestrian sports more engaging, more insightful, and ultimately, more understandable. But prediction is often misunderstood. The real power of data isn&rsquo;t just in saying who will win; it&rsquo;s in explaining why a result happens &mdash; or why it doesn&rsquo;t.
This brings us to the most misinterpreted metric in our arsenal: Win Chance.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/e3d80c63-67a3-47c3-926a-fe7dcdb31292.jpg?width=4641&amp;height=4695" alt="Photo of the chestnut horse King Edward, ridden by Henrik von Eckermann clearing a show jumping obstacle at the Paris 2024 Olympics. King Edward get major air over the jump in an impressive fashion.">
King Edward &amp; Henrik von Eckermann (SWE) at the Paris 2024 Olympics. You can see why King Edward was widely considered a favorite, but our predictions only gave him a 7% win chance, just 1% higher than next best (see below). King Edward did not win.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/588108a9-ac84-4c4f-a169-48c3d3253010.png?width=777&amp;height=947" alt="Table showing EquiRatings' top 10 win chances for individual jumping gold ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympics">
Our pre-competition predictions for the individual Olympic jumping champion. You can see the full predictions, frozen in time, on our&nbsp;<a href="https://jumping-prediction-centre.equiratings.com/competitions/41" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prediction centre</a> (where we publish predictions for most major classes throughout the year).
<h2 dir="ltr">Why Win Chance Isn&rsquo;t What You Think It Is</h2>
When people see our win chance percentages, they naturally focus on the favorite. That&rsquo;s human nature &mdash; we look for certainty. But here&rsquo;s the reality: in show jumping, a favorite might have a 10% chance to win, and in eventing, that number might rise to 20%. That means even the top horse is statistically more likely to lose than to win.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/acdaa09c-93e6-4373-ac90-b37e40ec4891.png?width=816&amp;height=1344" alt="Table showing the EquiRatings pre-competition win chances (top 10) for the Burghley 2024 Horse Trials">
Our top 10 win chances for Burghley 2024 as published in our&nbsp;<a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/1045408090/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fan guide</a> for the event. Lordships Graffalo did indeed win.
That&rsquo;s what makes equestrian sport so uniquely unpredictable. Unlike football, where a dominant team often has a 50%+ chance of victory, horse sports operate in a world where the best in the world still have the odds stacked against them.
Think about that from a competitor&rsquo;s perspective. Imagine riding King Edward (jumping) or Lordships Graffalo (eventing) &mdash; clearly the best in the world &mdash; yet knowing it&rsquo;s highly probable you won&rsquo;t even medal, let alone win. That&rsquo;s pressure. That&rsquo;s the brutal reality of horse sport.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/7964b876-3a34-4427-bef0-bacbcc1d740f.png?width=816&amp;height=1344" alt="Table showing EquiRatings' top 10 win chances for the Grand Prix of Ireland at the 2024 Dublin Horse Show">
Our top 10 win chances for the 2024 Rolex Grand Prix of Ireland, as published in our <a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/225256138/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fan guide</a> for the class. Callas did not end up winning but Martin Fuchs &amp; Conner Jei did.
<h2 dir="ltr">So, Why Bother with Metrics?</h2>
Because numbers tell the story behind the sport.
<h3 dir="ltr">For fans:</h3>
For&nbsp;fans, win chances help set the stage. They introduce the underdogs, the favorites, and the history-makers before a competition begins. They help us understand when an outsider has defied the odds or when a big name has lived up to expectations.
<h3 dir="ltr">For management:</h3>
For&nbsp;management, EquiRatings provides an independent, objective voice &mdash; not replacing instinct or experience, but complementing it. We validate what people already feel, highlight names that deserve more attention, and sometimes, challenge conventional wisdom.
<h3 dir="ltr">For competitors:</h3>
For competitors, win chances aren&rsquo;t about one-off results. A single outcome can be misleading in either direction. What truly matters is moving the needle over time. Metrics give feedback on the process and that feedback fuels focus and motivation.
<h3 dir="ltr">For purchasers &amp; vendors:</h3>
For purchasers and vendors, decision-making is greatly aided by insight and context. How much is a horse worth? How many suitable horses are available? How does this horse compare to others based on what it has achieved and how much it costs? Finding horses is tough-going when you can&rsquo;t start by evaluating every horse in the world based on performance. Making decisions is tough-going when you can't list, rank and compare horses based on their performance and their price. We now have a full team dedicated to solving these problems and the traction is growing rapidly <a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/987655522/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">(see our product guide here)</a>.&nbsp;
<h2 dir="ltr">Founders Final Thought</h2>
Being first with equestrian analytics has been a journey. Creating solutions to challenges within the sport is fun, stimulating and rewarding. The ideas are often the easy bit &mdash; the real challenge, and satisfaction, is how we communicate the purpose, learn from the feedback and refine the execution so these new innovations and approaches truly take-off.&nbsp;
<h2 dir="ltr">Final Thoughts</h2>
Thanks for reading! For fresh insights, follow us at&nbsp;<a href="news.equiratings.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">news.equiratings.com</a>. To learn more about our services, visit <a href="equiratings.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">equiratings.com.</a>

Images of Ros canter with the bay horse Lordships Graffalo during a horse inspection and of a happy Henrik von Eckermann riding the chestnut King Edward after an Olympic round.

The Most Misunderstood Metric in Equestrian Sport: Why Win Chance Matters

Ten years is a pivotal horse age marking the transition from promising prospects to established contenders. Performances in this age bracket often foreshadow future success at the sport&rsquo;s highest levels.
We&rsquo;ve compiled a list of the top ten ten-year-old horses heading into the new season, based on their EquiRatings Elo rankings. These horses, paired with top riders and owners, represent the brightest hopes for the future.
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h2 dir="ltr">Blake's Big Year: The Leading Contender</h2>
1. HSH Blake | Caroline Pamukcu (USA) Owners: Sherrie Martin, Molly Hoff, Caroline Pamukcu
<blockquote>
"Blake is absolutely a unicorn &mdash; hence why I named our daughter after him too!&rdquo;
</blockquote>
HSH Blake has already achieved remarkable milestones in his career. An individual gold medal at the 2023 Pan American Games led to an Olympic call-up last year, making him the only horse on this list to have already represented his country at a major championship. He holds the record as the highest-rated U.S. nine-year-old on the EquiRatings database, having reached an Elo high of 704 last season. Despite dropping some points in Paris, he remains the highest-rated ten-year-old in the world coming into this season.
The record for the highest-rated ten-year-old from the U.S. (Elo 706) belongs to Phillip Dutton&rsquo;s Z, but with a full season ahead, HSH Blake is poised to challenge that mark and further cement his place in history.
Caroline Pamukcu commented:
&ldquo;He obviously had a big year last year, and in 2023 with the Pan American Games, so my goal this year is to have a quiet spring and really target Aachen, with a view to getting our feet wet ahead of the World Championships there in 2026. We&rsquo;ll then focus on making sure we&rsquo;ve got all the qualifications we need later in the season. There are some really good horses out there, but Blake is absolutely a unicorn&mdash;hence why I named our daughter after him too!&rdquo;
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/3a35b5e9-9ae1-45ed-bc86-90c5441972bd.jpg?width=5728&amp;height=5345" alt="Caroline Pamukcu &amp; HSH Blake as they leave the dressage arena after their test at the 2024 Land Rover Kentucky Three Day Event">
Caroline Pamukcu &amp; HSH Blake. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h2 dir="ltr">British Strength: The Rising Stars</h2>
2. SBH Big Wall | Izzy Taylor (GBR) Owner: Jane Timmis
Izzy Taylor&rsquo;s SBH Big Wall is the highest-rated British horse on the list with an Elo of 646. Already a winner at the CCI4*S level (Lisgarven 2024), he is one of only three horses in the world (alongside HSH Blake and Keep It Cooley) to have finished in the sub-30 category at 4* level in their nine-year-old year.
3. Brookfield Future News | Piggy March (GBR) Owners: Alison Swinburn, John &amp; Chloe Perry
Brookfield Future News was lightly campaigned in 2024 with Piggy March, but his runner-up position to last year&rsquo;s Badminton winners, Caroline Powell and Greenacres Special Cavalier, at Blair Castle in the CCI4*S was certainly a highlight.
4. Dassett Arthalent | Piggy March (GBR) Owner: Olivia Davidson
Piggy also has Dassett Arthalent on the list, a horse that only had two international runs in 2024 but finished 4th in the CCI4*S 8-9 year-old class at Blenheim.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/9c43083c-170d-4553-a706-43bc2d45305e.jpg?width=4256&amp;height=2832" alt="A photo of Piggy March in her competition attire on the ground. She is smiling broadly while talking to colleagues.">
Piggy March. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h2 dir="ltr">The Cooley Empire: A Dominant Force</h2>
The Cooley Farm team of Richard and Georgina Sheane will be delighted to see three Cooley horses on this prestigious list:
5. Shanroe Cooley | Liz Halliday (USA)&nbsp;Owners: Ocala Horse Properties LLC
6. Keep It Cooley | Wills Oakden (GBR)&nbsp;Owners: Geoff &amp; Elspeth Adam
7. It's Cooley Time | Bubby Upton (GBR)&nbsp;Owners: Bubby Upton, Five Time Syndicate
Shanroe Cooley (Liz Halliday), Keep It Cooley (Wills Oakden), and It&rsquo;s Cooley Time (Bubby Upton) have all delivered strong four-star performances in 2024 and continue to improve.
It&rsquo;s Cooley Time and Bubby Upton successfully stepped up to CCI4*S, securing a top-10 finish at Bramham before placing second at Hartpury to round out the season.
Notably, Keep It Cooley is the only other horse in this top ten, besides HSH Blake, to have already secured a CCI4*-L victory (Blair Castle 2024). He also holds the best finishing score from a nine-year-old at 4* level in 2024 (26.9, Burgham CCI4*S). With momentum on his side, he is definitely one to watch closely in 2025.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/f5ca7897-b66c-4ce3-8933-c83b5493364f.jpg?width=null&amp;height=null" alt="Wills Oakden fist pumping aboard the horse Keep It Cooley after their winning show jumping round in the 2024 Blair Castle CCI4*-L">
Wills Oakden &amp; Keep It Cooley winning the 2024 Blair Castle CCI4*-L. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h2 dir="ltr">The Rising Contenders</h2>
8. Perseverance Madame d'Engelbourg Z | Louise Romeike (SWE) Owners: Madeleine Brugman, Perseverance Estate B.V., Louise Romeike
The only horse inside the top ten listed here that has not yet completed a 4* is Louise Romeike&rsquo;s Perseverance Madame d'Engelbourg Z. The mare has had exceptional form at the 3* level, including wins at Baborowko and Kristianstad with sub-30 finishing scores. One to watch as she makes the step up to 4* in 2025.
9. Denim | Phillip Dutton (USA) Owner: Caroline Moran
Denim is the ultimate professional with Phillip Dutton, finishing inside the&nbsp;top eight in all five international starts and jumping double clear on each occasion.
10. Figaro Fonroy | Benjamin Massie (FRA) Owner: V&eacute;ronique Real
Flying the flag for France, Benjamin Massie&rsquo;s Figaro Fonroy rounds out the top ten. The duo recorded five of the six best finishing scores from French nine-year-olds at the 4* level in 2024.
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h2 dir="ltr">The Significance of Being in the Top Ten</h2>
History has shown that maintaining a place in the top ten at this age is a strong predictor of future success. A quick scan of horses who have achieved peak Elo ratings as ten-year-olds reveals a list of eventing superstars.
From multiple five-star wins to European, World, and Olympic medals &mdash; not to mention record finishing scores at the CCI5* level &mdash; the correlation between early Elo rankings and long-term success is undeniable.
Being in the top ten is about more than just raw talent. It reflects well-planned training, expert management, and the ability to perform under pressure. For owners and fans, these horses represent the future stars of the sport.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/badab08c-df2a-4545-a1e7-0d0e7203d85f.png?width=1286&amp;height=1800" alt="Table showing the number 1 Ten Year Olds in the World in Each of the Last Ten Years">
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h2 dir="ltr">USA vs. GBR: A Power Shift?</h2>
With eight of the top ten on this list flying the American or British flag, the future looks bright for both nations. With a home Olympics fast approaching, Team USA will be particularly pleased with their representation.
But where is Germany? Historically dominant in eventing, Germany boasts six of the ten top-rated ten-year-olds of all time, yet they don&rsquo;t feature at all in 2025. In fact, they only have one horse inside the top 25 this year. It&rsquo;s an indicator of how eventing&rsquo;s landscape is evolving&mdash;and a question of whether a new golden era is on the horizon.
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h2 dir="ltr">What to Watch for in 2025</h2>
This year&rsquo;s top ten ten-year-olds will not only shape the 2025 season but could also define the next decade of equestrian sport (and perhaps even LA 2028 &mdash; <a href="https://news.equiratings.com/stories/how-paris-proved-the-power-of-data-in-eventing-lessons-for-la-2028" target="_blank" rel="noopener">click here</a> to see who from this list could be on the next Olympic podium and why).
From rising stars to established partnerships, this season is their opportunity to shine &mdash; and for us to witness the beginning of their legacies.
With a full season ahead, who will step up, grow their Elo, and cement themselves in eventing history? Watch this space.
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h2 dir="ltr">Find Your Next Champion</h2>
From hidden gems to medal contenders, EquiRatings can help you navigate the world of horse sales. <a href="sales@equiratings.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reach out to our sales team at sales@equiratings.com</a> or explore our product guide <a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/987655522/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.
&nbsp;
<hr>
Thanks for reading! If you love eventing and want fresh insights, share this article and follow us at <a href="news.equiratings.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">news.equiratings.com</a>.

Caroline Pamukcu riding the dark bay horse HSH Blake out of the arena after their dressage test at the 2024 Olympics. Caroline leans forward toward HSH Blake's head, smiles broadly at him & pats him on the neck. HSH Blake looks relaxed & content.

The Top Ten 10-Year-Old Eventers Ahead of the 2025 Season: A Glimpse into the Future

As they work their way up the levels, young horses often fly under the radar, playing second fiddle to the sport's big five-star names. But it's our job to keep tabs on the young ones too, and here are six that stand out to us.
<h2 class="MsoNormal">1. MGH Zabaione</h2>
Rider: Padraig McCarthy (IRL)
Owners: Di Brunsden, Peter Cattell &amp; Padraig McCarthy
MGH Zabaione, ridden by Padraig McCarthy, enters the 2025 season as the highest rated nine-year-old in the world (Elo 638) and he finished last season as the highest rated eight-year-old horse in Irish history. Across all ages, only two Irish horses have higher Elo ratings at the start of this year: Colorado Blue (762) with Austin O'Connor and Calmaro (678) with Joseph Murphy.
Plus, MGH Zabaione became the first Irish horse in history to win the prolific CCI4*-S 8/9 YO class at Blenheim and was the first eight-year-old winner since 2016.
Zabaione had five international runs last season and, in all five, he jumped clear across the country and in the show jumping ring, twice bringing home the win (Ballindenisk 3*-S, Blenheim 4*-S 8/9 YO). We can&rsquo;t wait to see what 2025 might have in store for this young superstar.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/65746bc2-03cf-4be4-ba09-69761a1cbbd3.jpg?width=4256&amp;height=2832" alt="Padraig McCarthy in a black &amp; white image in his dressage competition attire. He smiles and points.">
Padraig McCarthy. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
<h2 class="MsoNormal">2. Cooley Mosstown</h2>
Rider: Caroline Harris (GBR)
Owners: Gail Sinclair, Karen Dunford, Dinah Posford
With Caroline Harris, Cooley Mosstown has an immaculate international cross country jumping record; he&rsquo;s never had a cross country jumping fault in any of his 13 international XC runs. And&nbsp;he enters 2025 as the fastest nine-year-old in the sport right now, having outpaced 95% of his cross country competitors on his fastest days.
In June 2024, Cooley Mosstown made the step up to CCI4* level in style with a win at Kilguilkey CCI4*-S and he then placed third in the Blenheim CCI4*-S 8/9 YO class to wrap up his year.
Cooley Mosstown enters the 2025 season as the #2 nine-year-old in the world based on his EquiRatings Elo rating (614). Big things are on the horizon for this young horse.
<h2 class="MsoNormal">3. Corimiro</h2>
Rider: Sarah Bullimore (GBR)
Owners: Brett Bullimore, Bruce Saint, Christopher &amp; Susan Gillespie
Just one Elo point behind Cooley Mosstown, Corimiro enters the 2025 season as the #3 nine-year-old in the world (Elo 613). With Sarah Bullimore, he is already a winner at the CCI3* level (Montelibretti 3*-L 2023) and he made a successful step up to CCI4* last year, including his top-10 finish in the Blenheim 4*-S 8/9 YOs.
Corimiro is the only horse on this list to have already completed (and delivered) at the CCI4*-L level when he finished 5th at Boekelo to wrap up his 2024 season. Without his rail on the final day, it would have been a win for this talented young horse &ndash; we can always say &ldquo;what if&rdquo; in eventing but watch this space for 2025.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/3af8ce5c-ed6e-48c8-a17f-d5bf24adfd2f.png?width=1406&amp;height=1454" alt="Table Showing the Highest Rated 9-Year-Olds Entering 2025 (and an Honourable Mention)">
<h2 class="MsoNormal">4. Kiarado d&rsquo;Arville</h2>
Rider: Lara de Leidekerke-Meier (BEL)
Owners: FIVE STAR EVENTERS sprl &amp; LARGA sprl
With Lara de Leidekerke-Meier, Kiarado d&rsquo;Arville earned three international wins in 2024 (Jardy 2*-S, Strzegom 4*-S, Kronenberg 3*-L). For his Kronenberg win, the young star also produced the best dressage score from an eight-year-old across all international events last season (20.8).
Kiarado d&rsquo;Arville begins his 2025 season as the #4 nine-year-old in the world based on his EquiRatings Elo rating (604). &nbsp;
<blockquote>
&ldquo;He&rsquo;s the most incredible little horse that I have ever sat on, he is the full package and I am really looking forward to seeing what is in store for him in the next couple of years. I really believe he&rsquo;s a contender for me for Aachen 2026 World Championships&rdquo;. - Lara
</blockquote>
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/1ba43a03-9705-472c-88df-3fa4c7406810.jpg?width=3985&amp;height=2758" alt="A black &amp; white close-up image of Lara De Liedekerke Meier as she faces her horse during a horse inspection">
Lara de Liedekerke-Meier. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
<h2 class="MsoNormal">5. Jaguars Duende&nbsp;</h2>
Rider: Sharon White (USA)
Owners: Sharon White
Sharon White&rsquo;s Jaguars Duende starts 2025 as the&nbsp;highest rated nine-year-old in the USA&nbsp;according to the EquiRatings Elo rating and the #5 nine-year-old in the world (Elo 603). Of the mare&rsquo;s nine career completions at international level, she has been on the podium every time, including four wins (Virginia 2*-S 2022, Carolina 3*-S 2024, Tryon 3*-L 2024, Maryland 3*-L 2024). With those three 2024 victories at the CCI3* level, her transition to CCI4*&nbsp;is one of the most highly anticipated developments of the year, with 2025 shaping up to be a breakthrough season for this talented mare.
<h2 class="MsoNormal">6. C-Let&rsquo;s Dance van de Beemd</h2>
Rider: Laura Collett (GBR)
Owner: Sheena Pilkington
Our honourable mention hasn't yet made a mark on the Elo rankings but he did deliver the best CCI3* finishing score in the world last season, across all ages and all countries. That score came courtesy of&nbsp;C-Let&rsquo;s Dance van de Beemd and Laura Collett when they finished on their dressage score of 22.8 to win the Lisgarven CCI3*-L in August.
<blockquote>
&ldquo;Ned is one of the most talented horses I&rsquo;ve ridden. I&rsquo;ll take my time with him because I think if I get it right then he&rsquo;ll be a serious one for the future. He&rsquo;ll do another CCI3*-L before hopefully stepping up later in the season.&rdquo; - Laura
</blockquote>
<h2 dir="ltr">Find Your Next Champion</h2>
From hidden gems to medal contenders, EquiRatings can help you navigate the world of horse sales. <a href="sales@equiratings.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reach out to our sales team at sales@equiratings.com</a> or explore our product guide <a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/987655522/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.
<h2 dir="ltr">Final Thoughts</h2>
Thanks for reading! If you love eventing and want fresh insights, share this article and follow us at <a href="news.equiratings.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">news.equiratings.com</a>.

Close-up black & white image of Laura Collett seen behind her horse's neck as she smiles and pats him from the ground.

Six 9-Year-Old Eventers to Watch This Season

Looking back, where were the Paris individual medallists three-and-a-half years before their podium moment?
What did we learn from the Paris podium? Never write off Michael Jung. The horse that had led and lost every major championship he had contested (5!) didn&rsquo;t lead but did win in Paris. Never doubt Laura Collett. Her partnership endured falls, flags, and run-outs before bringing home a second team Olympic gold and an individual bronze medal. And never forget Chris Burton. The man who walked away from the sport, returned, and claimed the individual silver.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/69188ee2-ab1d-4ffe-9bb4-eb1bcc57fb17.jpg?width=3576&amp;height=3506" alt="Rider Michael Jung cantering the bay horse fischerChipmunk FRH around the Paris Olympics arena after their victory-clinching show jumping round. Chipmunk's ears are pricked forward and Michael is smiling.">
Michael Jung &amp; fischerChipmunk FRH in Paris. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
Those are the stories (and we love those at EquiRatings!) but let&rsquo;s dig into the cold hard facts. Forget the riders and medals for a moment. How were their horses performing at the start of 2021? And how many future champions might be lurking out there right now, waiting for their moment on the LA stage?
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/a076d23c-b664-400d-af79-5f2da611b821.png?width=1390&amp;height=1168" alt="Line Graph showing the Paris 2024 Podium Their Ratings Over the Last Olympic Cycle">
<h3 dir="ltr">Why Use a Metric Rather Than a Statistic?</h3>
When it comes to performance, some stats flatter, but metrics matter.&nbsp;For example, how fast someone can run 100m is useful&mdash;it&rsquo;s a good proxy for performance. But equestrian sports are full of misleading &lsquo;stats&rsquo; that tell us little about the future. That&rsquo;s where EquiRatings came in 10 years ago. We combined domain knowledge and data science to create metrics that matter.
This approach changes how we think. Data insights aren&rsquo;t magic, but they challenge gut feelings and save countless hours of manual research. For years, I spent hours every day scrolling websites and building spreadsheets. Modern data science does that work in minutes&mdash;and with far better results.
&nbsp;
<hr>
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/81c7f78f-8466-473f-bc32-91a278c81301.png?width=1626&amp;height=926" alt="Table showing then versus now: best in class Jan 2021 and Jan 2025">
<h3 dir="ltr">The Metric That Predicted the Paris Podium</h3>
The EquiRatings Elo is our most powerful metric for predicting consistency and quality.&nbsp;Every international horse has an Elo rating. Horses lose points when beaten by lower-rated competitors and gain points when defeating higher-rated ones. The best horses consistently beat top competition.
Here&rsquo;s what the data revealed about Paris medallists at the start of 2021:
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li dir="ltr">Chipmunk (Elo 839): The highest-rated 13-year-old globally.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li dir="ltr">Shadow Man (Elo 671): The highest-rated 11-year-old.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li dir="ltr">London 52 (Elo 726): The second highest-rated 12-year-old, behind Tokyo medallist Vassily de Lassos.</li>
</ul>
Interestingly,&nbsp;all three were already into double figures in age. While many look at 7-year-olds as the next big thing, these horses proved that established performers shine brightest.
&nbsp;
<hr>
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/3a0351de-536c-4ec0-9922-f79439d637c3.jpg?width=null&amp;height=null" alt="The three British horse and rider combinations from Paris 2024 going around the Olympic arena during their victory lap after winning team gold. Tom McEwen, Ros Canter &amp; Laura Collett. All riders are smiling broadly. Ros &amp; Laura are fist pumping. The photograph is taken from in front of them.">
The gold-medal-winning Team GB at Paris 2024. From left to right: Tom McEwen &amp; JL Dublin, Ros Canter &amp; Lordships Graffalo, Laura Collett &amp; London 52. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
<h3 dir="ltr">So, Who Wins LA?</h3>
We can&rsquo;t predict the future, but we can maximize our chances by making smart decisions.&nbsp;Here are four horses to watch who each start the 2025 season as the highest-rated horse in their age group:
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li dir="ltr">The 13-Year-Olds:&nbsp;Lordships Graffalo (855). Higher rated now than Chipmunk was before Paris. Can Graffalo avenge the flag?</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li dir="ltr" role="presentation">The 12-Year-Olds:&nbsp;Zaragoza (729). A rising star with medals on the horizon.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li dir="ltr" role="presentation">The 11-Year-Olds: Nickel 21 (750). Already an Olympian and Aachen winner, this horse has championship potential.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li dir="ltr" role="presentation">The 10-Year-Olds:&nbsp;HSH Blake (684). A home crowd favorite with Olympic experience.</li>
</ul>
The Elo has become indispensable to riders, owners, and agents. Whether identifying high-potential youngsters or proven championship contenders, our metrics guide smarter decisions in horse purchasing.
<h3 dir="ltr">Find Your Next Champion</h3>
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<h3 dir="ltr">Final Thoughts</h3>
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Rider Julia Krajewski pats the bay horse Nickel 21 on the neck as they gallop across the finish line of cross country course in competition. Nickel has a game and alert expression and Julia is smiling.

How Paris Proved the Power of Data in Eventing: Lessons for LA 2028

Burghley first adopted the modern eventing format in 2006. Since then, there have been 1131 Burghley starters. Just 10 finished on their dressage score. No rider between 2006-2023 has FOD&rsquo;d at Burghley more than once, even though 202 riders have had multiple Burghley starts in that time.
There are a couple of stand-out Irish horses to watch today
<h3><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/1394358b-9bc4-4150-a5b5-d09a0a37c70a?width=2000&amp;height=600" alt="1"></h3>
<h3>Sarah Ennis | Grantstown Jackson</h3>
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>EquiRatings Speed Rank: 3 (97%)</li>
<li>Start Time: 13:48</li>
<li>Score: 34.5</li>
<li>Position: 39th</li>
</ul>
At Burghley this year they produced their best international dressage test in 3 and half years. They were the third fastest at Badminton 2024 behind Lucy Latta, who was the fastest with a time penalty - Sarah Ennis had 3.6 (9 seconds over). They were the second fastest combination at the Europeans in 2023 (2.4-time penalties, 6 seconds) the only one to make the time that day was Lordships Graffalo.
<h3><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/2bea699b-2995-40c0-8319-2524b08cb1a3?width=2000&amp;height=600" alt="2"></h3>
<h3>Austin O'Connor | Colorado Blue</h3>
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>EquiRatings Speed Rank: 1 (98%)</li>
<li>Start Time: 12:13</li>
<li>Score: 33.9</li>
<li>Position: 37th</li>
</ul>
This is the fastest horse in the field - alongside Lorships Graffalo. They were the second fastest around a tough track at Maryland (3 seconds over). Made the time at CCI5* previously (Badminton) They were the fastest of the day at Badminton when Lordships Graffalo won. They did run out at the leaf pit here last year - but it was a rare mistake. Made the time at CCI5* on four previous occasions, and clear around 7 (started at 8).
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<h3>Ros Canter | Lordships Graffalo</h3>
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>EquiRatings Speed Rank: 2 (97%)</li>
<li>Start Time: 15:40</li>
<li>Score: 22.0</li>
<li>Position: 2nd</li>
</ul>
Badminton winner, European Champion. Generational Talent. Only one to make the time at the Europeans in 2023. Their only cross-country jumping penalty on the record was the penalty/non-penalty that happened in Paris. Made the time at CCI5* twice.
<h3><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/4fb862ae-d78a-40c0-82f9-623c78b7e5c5?width=2000&amp;height=600" alt="4"></h3>
<h3>Oliver Townend | Cooley Rosalent</h3>
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>EquiRatings Speed Rank: 4 (96%)</li>
<li>Start Time: 14:19</li>
<li>Score: 24.4</li>
<li>Position: =5th</li>
</ul>
1 second over the time at Kentucky 2024. 3-time winner of Burghley and 8 five stars Oliver has made the time here twice before
<h3>Mia Farley | Phelps</h3>
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>EquiRatings Speed Rank: 12 (94%)</li>
<li>Start Time: 13:12</li>
<li>Score: 33.7</li>
<li>Position: 36th</li>
</ul>
Fastest and only horse to make the time at Maryland. No US riders has made the time at Burghley since Sinead Halpin in 2013 (Manoir de Carbville).
<h3>Sophia Hill | Humble Glory</h3>
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>EquiRatings Speed Rank: 6 (96%)</li>
<li>Start Time: 14:06</li>
<li>Score: 36.9</li>
<li>Position: 50th</li>
</ul>
Only one 5* start but made the time at that run in Adelaide. They finished on the podium that day and were the only horse inside time. This year made the time at Bramham and Bicton which are both hill and testing XC tracks.

6 Speed Horses

Into Second Place early on Valmy Biats (Emily King) DR Time: 9:30 Looking at recent tests, we expect that a good day would land around the 25 mark and an off-day is around 28. They will very likely slot in behind Ros in second place overall for the early part of the morning. We include them here because they have not been outside the top 5 internationally in 2024, including 4th at Badminton and 5th at Aachen. A good start means we can really begin to speculate about the time penalties on Saturday and the impact it will have for them. They weren't slow at Badminton or Aachen but it is the phase where they might drop marks. The defending champion who needs to stay close: Cooley Rosalent (Oliver Townend) DR Time: 11:17 While Ros has been the star of the sport for a couple of years, Oliver Townend, with 8 five-star wins - including here last year and Kentucky with this horse, is the rider that is most likely to spoil her party. Cooley Rosalent is still only 10 but already has two five star podiums to her name - both in the US and at Maryland in particular, over a tough cross country track. They started on a 23.1 that day. They scored 19.8 at Burgham in a CCI4*-S last time out but are unlikely to match that tomorrow. Expect they go second with a low twenties test. The speed horse that needs to keep in touch: Artist (Monica Spencer) DR Time: 14:00 We expect that we will return to more Monica Spencer conversations on Saturday morning. Artist is a thoroughbred horse who could make up a lot of ground on Saturday afternoon but a good start will decide how meaningful that climb will ultimately prove. Their last test at this level was at Kentucky where they scored 31.9. Anything around that will leave too much to do but a late twenties test gives them something to work with. One to watch but not an overnight top five horse. The star of the sport: Lordships Graffalo (Rosalind Canter) DR Time: 15:32 What a position it will be for Ros to know that she already likely leads overnight and she still has the star of the sport to deliver their test. Lordships Graffalo has it all - but whether that includes a sub 20 dressage remains to be seen. They have been comfortably in the 22-24 range for most of their recent big day test - but worth noting, they have always been a little ahead of Izilot DHI in this phase. Who knows what is to come, but&nbsp;can they&nbsp;take the lead - absolutely. Even if they don't, they will very likely remain the favorite due to all that lies ahead this weekend and (whisper it) they could potentially break the Burghley record finishing score (25.4) Last year's record breaker: Vitali (Tim Price)&nbsp;DR Time: 15:47 Tim and Vitali delivered an 18.7 dressage test at Burghley last year, a CCI5* record low outside of championships. At many events, the final phase has been their undoing, but likely to feature in many conversations over the weekend. Highly likely to be in top 5 on Friday night.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/5a61a432-e5b9-4aed-83db-e2df1f3c66ce?width=1080&amp;height=1080" alt="Square Burghley 2024 (2)">

Friday Five to Follow

<h2>Enhanced Visitor Experience</h2>
Event Director Martyn Johnson and marketing lead Lucy Higginson have shared insights into the numerous enhancements visitors can expect:
The Insight Stage: Formerly known as the Celebrity Talk area, this revamped feature will be hosted by renowned racing presenter Hayley Moore. It will offer a broader range of content, including rider interviews, lifestyle discussions, and expert Q&amp;A sessions.
Family-Friendly Attractions: New additions include a mini Defender experience for children, a mechanical horse for aspiring jockeys, and pottery painting activities. A storyteller will also be on hand to entertain younger visitors
Young Person's Ticket: A new ticket category for 12-16 year-olds has been introduced, offering a significant discount to encourage younger attendees.
The Avebury Restaurant: This new dining option, named after Burghley's greatest winner, offers a elegant setting for breakfast and lunch.
Course Walks: Both long and short format guided course walks will be available, led by experienced riders such as Sarah Bullimore and Mary King.
Lifestyle Pavilion: The area has been refreshed with a new garden space and champagne bar, creating a relaxing environment for visitors.
<h2>World-Class Competition</h2>
The 2024 event boasts an impressive lineup of competitors:
<ul>
<li class="whitespace-pre-wrap">83 horse and rider combinations from 10 different nations</li>
<li>Eight 5-star winners in the field</li>
<li>The reigning European Champion, Ros Canter with Lordships Graffalo</li>
<li>&nbsp;Kentucky winner Oliver Townend and Cooley Rosalent</li>
<li>&nbsp;Maryland winner Austin O'Connor and Colorado Blue</li>
</ul>
This stellar field promises intense competition across all phases of the event.
<h2>Burghley TV and Media Coverage</h2>
Burghley TV will provide comprehensive coverage of the event, including
<ul>
<li>Live streaming of all competition phases</li>
<li>Coverage of masterclasses featuring top riders and trainers</li>
<li>A preview show on Wednesday evening after the horse inspection</li>
<li>An alternative course preview featuring Olympians from various sports, celebrating Burghley's Olympic&nbsp;connections</li>
</ul>
Access to Burghley TV is available for &pound;20, offering viewers worldwide the chance to experience the event in full.
<h2>Looking to the Future</h2>
As Martyn Johnson enters his third year as Event Director, he emphasized the importance of evolving the event while maintaining its core appeal. The organizers are focused on attracting future audiences, presenting the sport in a modern way, and showcasing eventing at its best.
With Defender extending its title sponsorship, Burghley's long-term future looks secure. The event continues to play a crucial role in the eventing calendar, serving as a showcase for the sport on a global stage.
As the equestrian world turns its attention to Burghley, anticipation is building for what promises to be a brilliant display of world-class eventing, set against the backdrop of one of the sport's most iconic venues.
Want to hear more? Check out the full podcast episode here and stay tuned for more :&nbsp;
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&nbsp;

Inside Burghley: What's New in 2024

<h3>Michael Jung's Brilliant Individual Performance</h3>
Michael Jung cemented his legacy in the equestrian world by becoming the first-ever three-time Olympic champion in eventing. His remarkable performance with his horse, Chipmunk FRH, secured him the gold medal. Jung&rsquo;s ability to deliver under pressure and maintain peak performance across all phases of the competition was awe-inspiring.
<h3>Chris Burton's Impressive Comeback</h3>
After nearly 1,000 days out of international competition, Chris Burton made an astonishing return on Shadow Man, earning an individual silver medal. His performance across all three phases highlighted his resilience and expertise. Burton&rsquo;s comeback story is a testament to his dedication and his love of the sport.
<h3>Laura Collett's Achievement</h3>
Laura Collett&rsquo;s journey to an individual bronze medal was filled with determination and grit. Overcoming setbacks from previous championships, Collett and her horse, London 52, delivered a stellar performance in Paris. Her new Olympic record in the dressage phase and consistent results across all stages of the competition exemplified her talent and perseverance.
<h3>Japan's Rise and Success</h3>
The Japanese team made history by securing a bronze medal, the first nation outside the 'big six' nations to land a medal in eventing in the Olympics. This accomplishment reflects the growing strength and depth of talent in Japanese eventing and their increasing prominence on the world stage.
<h3>Triumph Under Pressure</h3>
Team GBR lived up to their status as favourites, clinching the team gold medal with a stellar performance. The British team, featuring Laura Collett, Tom McEwen and Ros Canter, faced immense pressure coming into the competition. Despite this, they delivered consistently strong performances across all phases. Laura Collett, in particular, shone with a new Olympic record in the dressage phase. Their victory is a testament to their preparation, affirming their dominance in the sport and the depth of talent within British eventing.&nbsp;
<h3>Looking Ahead - Los Angeles 2028</h3>
As the Paris Olympics come to a close, the eventing community eagerly looks ahead to the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles. The hope is to build on the successes and lessons learned from Paris, with even more excitement. LA 2028 promises to be another fascinating chapter in the history of eventing, with riders and teams preparing to push the boundaries of the sport further.
<h3>Conclusion</h3>
The Paris Olympics have once again demonstrated why eventing is such a captivating and dynamic sport. From Michael Jung's historic victory to the rise of talent from Japan, the competition was filled with moments that will be remembered for years to come. This sport we love so dearly consistently delivers memorable championships, with its unique blend of precision, athleticism, and partnership between horse and rider.

Eventing at Paris 2024 - The Highlights

<h2>Back-to-Back Gold</h2>
Building on their spectacular performance in Tokyo, where they set a record finishing score to claim their first Olympic gold in 49 years, the British team has now achieved back-to-back wins. This remarkable feat puts them ahead of both Australia and Germany, who previously shared the record with four team gold medals each.
Team GBR came into these games on a 40% win chance in the EquiRatings Prediction Centre, making them stand-out favourites. The Paris 2024 Olympics has witnessed another chapter in British equestrian dominance, as McEwen, Canter, and Collett demonstrated their world-class skill, and determination with their horses across all three phases of the competition - dressage, cross-country, and show jumping.
<h2>Silver &amp; Bronze</h2>
The French team rode the wave of home support to a brilliant silver medal finish, much to the delight of the passionate crowd at Versailles. Feeding off the electric atmosphere, the home nation's riders did themselves and their country proud, adding a 5th eventing team medal to France's impressive Olympic tally.&nbsp;
While Britain's gold-medal performance captured the headlines, Japan's bronze medal finish is a historic achievement in its own right. This marks Japan's first ever Olympic medal in Eventing, and only their second equestrian Olympic medal overall, following a gold in Show Jumping way back in 1932. This breakthrough performance not only brings pride to Japan but also signals the growing global competitiveness in equestrian sports, promising an exciting future for Eventing on the world stage.
<h2>Milestone Victory</h2>
Team GBR's victory not only highlights the individual talents of McEwen, Canter, and Collett but also underscores the strength and depth of the British equestrian program. Their success is a testament to years of dedicated training, strategic planning, and the support of a world-class team behind the scenes. Team GBR's fifth gold medal in Eventing is more than just a statistic - it's a milestone that cements their legacy in the sport and will inspire future generations of equestrians.
As fans and supporters celebrate this monumental achievement, the question on everyone's minds will be: can they extend their golden streak to a sixth title in Los Angeles 2028?

RECORD-BREAKING FIFTH OLYMPIC WIN

This bronze not only marks a watershed moment for Japanese equestrianism but also represents only the second equestrian Olympic medal in the nation's history, following Lt. Baron Takeichi Nishi's gold in show jumping at the 1932 Los Angeles Games. The significance of this achievement cannot be overstated.
<h2>The 'Big Six'</h2>
Since 1980, the podium in team eventing has been the exclusive domain of the 'Big Six' nations: Australia, Great Britain, Germany, France, New Zealand, and the USA. Japan's bronze medal performance shatters this long-standing paradigm, heralding a new era of global competitiveness in the sport.&nbsp;
The road to this podium finish has been long and challenging. Just twelve years ago, at the London 2012 Olympics, the Japanese team faced a devastating setback when all three riders were eliminated during the cross-country phase. Instead of being discouraged, Japan doubled down on their efforts, investing heavily in horses, training, and overall program development.
Considering they didn't initially qualify for these games and only got in when China lost their place, it marks a very special day for them and their team and for a huge number of people in the sport.&nbsp;

Eventing