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<h2 class="MsoNormal">The main man is in town<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-IE; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"></h2>
<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-IE; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">There is always a buzz at Kentucky when Oliver is here. The world number one (it was his first victory here that landed him that badge and but for the odd-month here and there, it has been a title he has dominated for 5 years. He is a three-time winner here and this venue has become a key part of his career. 2024 will be no different &ndash; having won Burghley already, and with <a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/399834390/7/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more firepower waiting in the wings for Badminton</a> in a couple of weeks &ndash; a chance to win the Grand Slam of Eventing will rest on <a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/153146867/8/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">whether he can guide the 10yo superstar Cooley Rosalent to victory here</a>. She has gone close to winning a CCI5* already when they had uncharacteristic second rail at Maryland to hand the victory to Ireland&rsquo;s Austin O&rsquo;Connor.<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-IE; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> 
<h2 class="MsoNormal">Consistently delivering at the top level</h2>
<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-IE; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Oliver is a winner. His first five-star win came at Badminton in 2009 with Flint Curtis and then he quickly backed that up with a Burghley win later the same year. He is now a 7 time winner at the level, with three Kentucky wins and three Burghley wins adding to that first Badminton win. He has had seven podiums at Badminton &ndash; more than any other venue. 
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/d5181620-9fea-4c10-b87a-33988d972920?width=440&amp;height=506" alt="Screenshot 2024 04 23 130914">
<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-IE; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">&nbsp;
<h2 class="MsoNormal">The Big-Hitter Horse - Ballaghmor Class</h2>
<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-IE; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-IE; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">There are lots of opinions I guess about who the top one is but the correct answer is surely the horse with the most runs, the most wins and the podiums. Ballaghmor Class has 11 runs, 3 wins and 7 podiums. Next we have Armada who delivered 9 runs. This horse is also the all-time top rated British horse on our system, with an Elo of 864 and number 6 on the all-time, all-nations list.
<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-IE; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/045eb810-483b-4257-bfb8-f67cffaf20d1?width=1749&amp;height=744" alt="All Time Elo">
<h2 class="MsoNormal">The top-rated five star performances</h2>
<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-IE; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-IE; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">HPR, High Performance Rating, is a tool we use to help managers who face the situation that &lsquo;not all five-stars are equal. They aren&rsquo;t even equal year-to-year. Look at the rating for winning Burghley last year &ndash; it is lower that the podium in 2019. 
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/45385ad1-08fa-4177-8f88-d4709278c06a?width=1476&amp;height=727" alt="Top Rated Results ">
<h2 class="MsoNormal">Kentucky with Cooley Rosalent</h2>
<a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/153146867/8/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">They have a big chance</a>. Imagine winning the thing on your 100th run &ndash; further pushing your #1 dominance, deepening the selection headache for Team GB and setting up a grand slam story for Badminton. Here&rsquo;s to the next 100 Oliver! 
<iframe id="datawrapper-chart-osXaq" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" title="Oliver Townend will compete for the 100th time at CCI5* level this weekend." src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/osXaq/2/" height="1769" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" aria-label="Table" data-external="1"></iframe>
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Twenty years, 100 five-stars for Oliver

<h2>Lets start with a quick look at the ratings:&nbsp;</h2>
A 106 HPR is huge! the data is suggesting we have seen something on a par with Laura Collett and London 52 at&nbsp;that Aston-Le-Walls class before Tokyo when they finished on 20.5, beating Toledo and Brookfield Inocent. It is on a par with fischerChipmunk winning Luhmuhlen in 2021 (dominating the rest of the field and finished on 21.4 - a field that included Vassily and a not-quite-yet Olympic Champion Amande De b'Neville). It even matches the SAP Hale Bob win at Aachen in 2019.&nbsp;
<h2><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/76e42cb9-2da7-459c-964b-51f056a5bc21?width=2191&amp;height=1263" alt="Emily King Hpr List"> </h2>
<h2>Why such a good rating?</h2>
Take a look at who they beat...and by how much. Sure, some horses may not have been pushing for time but they were all doing their best in the first phase and Valmy Biats was joint-leader with Banzai du Loir on 23.2. They were ahead of London 52, ahead of Lordship's Graffalo and Izilot DHI. They were second fastest - a second behind Colorado Blue. A 6.8 winning margin in a field which contains some of the greats will drive the rating.
<h2><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/a33e4649-6dd9-4e7b-b04d-4d576adc8d73?width=2160&amp;height=940" alt="Thorseby Final Results"> </h2>
<h2>Is it real?&nbsp;</h2>
Sure, they didn't all push for the time and some didn't even run XC but it certainly has made us all sit up a bit here at the office. Likely it is a bit inflated because of the tactics of others but also possible that it goes under the radar - and it shouldn't.
<h2>What it means for Badminton 2024</h2>
It means a big jump in the ratings. Have a look:
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/add480e1-9ea2-4569-8d89-dfb1eb1861e0?width=940&amp;height=788" alt="Valmy Biats">Their chances of winning at Badminton have shot up by 5%, making them one of the top contenders. They may be 4th highest on win chance at the moment, but with Cooley Rosalent planning to cross the Atlantic to compete at Kentucky, it is fair to consider them the 3rd favourite for Badminton currently. Imagine the scenes if Emily King wins Badminton! And what would it mean for Paris! Anyway, let's enjoy that 106 Thoresby win and not get too ahead of ourselves.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/e0dfd3f3-817b-4cab-927a-f0bd86eea46b?width=940&amp;height=788" alt="Brookfield Innocent">
Brookfield Inocent: The favourite - if they start Another Thoresby winner (2022). This pair deliver incredible results when they start and haven't been out of the top three in any of their last five international runs. That run however includes Avenches in late 2021 - they had only two runs in 2022 and two in 2023. If they start, they will be class but it will be bubblewrap between now and the second weekend in May.&nbsp;
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/1d0d952a-0ed6-4e03-a8dd-8325b32ad89d?width=940&amp;height=788" alt="Izilot DHI">
Izilot DHI: Badminton Bound Last season, Ros had probably the best 'second' horse in the sport in this horse and late last year, Izilot DHI began to push Lordship's Graffalo for the top spot and place for Paris. Izilot has a 5* win under his belt at Pau, and Ros will be looking to add another Badminton title in 2024.&nbsp;
<h2>Who are we missing?</h2>
Jalapeno and Gemma Stevens were third favourites when entries were released in late March - they are out of the competition now which also impacted on the favourites. This reshuffle has put Cooley Rosalent in a sweet spot in this virtual world of prediction and simulation but we expect it is Kentucky for this combination and therefore, it is the Burghley winner and five-star king, Ballaghmor Class that many will now see as the tough, battle-hardened horse that can rise to the challenge of Badminton.&nbsp;
Vitali: Jumped Clear at Thoresby We got a few messages about the impact of the clear show jumping round within minutes of it happening at Thoresby. We were excited to see ourselves but a dip in dressage performance - a 27 is great (and probably more a more realistic repeatable benchmark) than the 18.7 at Burghley. The hike in dressage score cancelled the clear round of SJ and they are about where they were - top few.&nbsp;
Lots still to unfold no doubt. Main takeaway - Valmy was really great!!&nbsp;
<h3>Badminton Prediction Centre on the 10th April</h3>
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/ab563edd-41e5-402f-92ca-2c2e91ef215f?width=931&amp;height=873" alt="Prediction Centre on the 10th April">
<iframe style="border: none;" title="Embed Player" src="https://play.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/30532763/height/128/theme/modern/size/standard/thumbnail/yes/custom-color/345178/time-start/00:00:00/playlist-height/200/direction/backward/download/yes/font-color/FFFFFF" width="100%" height="128" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe>
<h3>Additional Materials:</h3>
Entries Magazine Overview: <a class="c-link" href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/399834390/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/399834390/" data-sk="tooltip_parent">https://digital.equiratings.com/view/399834390/</a> Latest Badminton Prediction Centre:&nbsp;<a class="c-link" href="https://prediction-centre.equiratings.com/competitions/badminton_5l_2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="https://prediction-centre.equiratings.com/competitions/badminton_5l_2024" data-sk="tooltip_parent">https://prediction-centre.equiratings.com/competitions/badminton_5l_2024</a> Check the current entries:&nbsp;<a class="c-link" href="https://www.badminton-horse.co.uk/entries/2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="https://www.badminton-horse.co.uk/entries/2024" data-sk="tooltip_parent">https://www.badminton-horse.co.uk/entries/2024</a> Find more podcast episodes here:&nbsp;<a class="c-link" href="https://podfollow.com/equiratings-eventing-podcast" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="https://podfollow.com/equiratings-eventing-podcast" data-sk="tooltip_parent">https://podfollow.com/equiratings-eventing-podcast</a>

Emily King now a live contender to win Badminton

The Early Reaction Show 
<iframe style="border: none;" title="Embed Player" src="https://play.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/30532763/height/192/theme/modern/size/large/thumbnail/yes/custom-color/87A93A/time-start/00:00:00/playlist-height/200/direction/backward/download/yes/font-color/FFFFFF" width="100%" height="192" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe>
<h2> The Early Guide to the Field</h2>
<h2><a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/399834390/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/e6b48492-45f7-4556-8c1b-c11d64fbce40?width=903&amp;height=1491" alt="Image (68)"></a> <a class="fbo-embed" style="max-width: 100%;" href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/399834390/" data-fbo-id="f4ce94b1b2" data-fbo-ratio="3:2" data-fbo-lightbox="yes" data-fbo-width="100%" data-fbo-height="auto" data-fbo-version="1">The Entries for the 2024 MARS Badminton Horse Trials</a> The Early Prediction Centre <img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/53c7497d-8e54-44bd-96b2-75c143ed2930?width=1322&amp;height=1697" alt="Prediction Center" loading="lazy"></h2>

Badminton 2024 - The Early Guide

Tournament bracket with the quarter final round filled in with the 8 contenders (horse and rider names and flags). The words "EquiRatings Horse of the Year, The Contenders, 2023" are above the bracket.

Who gets your vote for the 2023 EquiRatings Horse of the Year?

<h1><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/be54a562-323b-4516-b462-8ffc9b4d3fa0?width=1368&amp;height=1370" alt="Table listing 8 horses to watch on Burghley's 2023 cross country day" /></h1>
<h1>Tregilder &amp; Oliver Townend:</h1>
DR Score &amp; Position: 30.5 (=12th but 13th on tiebreak) XC Time &amp; Order: 11:20, 2nd to go
<h3>Has outpaced 98% of opponents, more than any other horse in the field. Ranks about middle of field on XC jumping reliability. With most-experienced CCI5* rider in field.</h3>
Tregilder is partnered with the most experienced five-star rider in the field as Oliver has had 84 previous five-star XC runs since 2008. He was clear inside the time on 26 of those runs (31%), including twice at Burghley. (second-most experienced of riders in the field: Tim Price with 60 five-star XC runs since 2008).
Oliver&rsquo;s Burghley XC stats (all-time): 2 clears-inside-the-time out of 26 Burghley attempts all time.
Tregilder&rsquo;s only previous Burghley was last year; they were EL on the XC (horse fall).
Of three previous five-star XC runs, Tregilder had 11 pens at Bicton 2021, an EL at Burghley 2022 after horse fall, and was clear with just 1.2 time in Luhm&uuml;hlen earlier this year.
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<h1>Galileo Nieuwmoed &amp; David Doel</h1>
DR Score &amp; Position: 33.7 (25th) XC Time &amp; Order: 11:30, 4th to go
<h3>The second-most reliable horse in the field with a 79% chance of jumping clear and rated as one of the fastest horses here, having outpaced 93% of opponents.</h3>
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According to Expected XC Time (a different EquiRatings speed metric), Galileo Nieuwmoed is the fastest horse in the field.
Previous five-star XC runs for horse: 5. Has jumped clear 4/5. Clear inside the time 3/5 (Pau 2021, Pau 2022, Kentucky 2023)
First Burghley for the horse
Previous five-star XC runs for rider (since 2008): 18
Among the top 20 horses worldwide right now based on Elo ratings, in top 10 for Great Britain.
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<h1>Colorado Blue &amp; Austin O&rsquo;Connor</h1>
DR Score &amp; Position: 34.9 (=27th but =29th on tiebreak; five-way tie on 34.9 but he &amp; Wabbit dead even) XC Time &amp; Order: 12:25, 15th to go
<h3>The highest-rated cross country horse here. The most reliable in the field with an 80% chance of jumping clear and the second-fastest, having outpaced 97% of opponents.</h3>
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Jumped clear and was the fastest at Badminton 2023 under especially difficult conditions. That XC result moved them up from 34th after dressage to 2nd after XC to ultimately produce the first Badminton podium for Ireland since 1983.
Previous five-star XC runs for horse: 5. Has jumped clear 5/5. Clear inside the time 3/5 (Pau 2020, Tokyo 2021, Badminton 2022)
First Burghley for the horse
Previous five-star XC runs for rider (since 2008): 20
Ireland&rsquo;s highest rated horse based on Elo ratings, in the top 10 of horses here, and among the top 25 horses worldwide right now.
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<h1>Viens du Mont &amp; Luc Chateau</h1>
DR Score &amp; Position: 42.2 (56th) XC Time &amp; Order: 12:55, 21st to go
<h3>A 75% chance of jumping clear which is just outside the top 10 here and is top 20 on speed, having outpaced 91% of opponents.</h3>
According to Expected XC Time (a different EquiRatings speed metric), Viens du Mont is the 5th fastest horse here. He delivered a clear-jumping round at Badminton this year and was the fourth-fastest horse on the day, behind only Colorado Blue, Lordships Graffalo, and Ballaghmor Class.
Previous five-star XC runs for horse: 2. Has jumped clear 2/2. Clear inside the time 1/2 (Pau 2022)
First Burghley for the horse
Previous five-star XC runs for rider (all time): 4
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<h1>Swallow Springs</h1>
DR Score &amp; Position: 24.2 (=2nd but straight 2nd on tiebreak) XC Time &amp; Order: 13:30, 28th to go
<h3>Top 3 in the field for speed, having outpaced 96% of opponents and has a 72% chance of jumping clear which is among the top 20 in the field. Oliver is the most experienced 5* rider here.</h3>
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Swallow Springs is partnered with the most experienced five-star rider in the field as Oliver has had 84 previous five-star XC runs since 2008. He was clear inside the time on 26 of those runs (31%), including twice at Burghley. (second-most experienced of riders in the field: Tim Price with 60 five-star XC runs since 2008).
Oliver&rsquo;s Burghley XC stats (all-time): 2 clears-inside-the-time out of 26 Burghley attempts all time.
Swallow Springs Burghley XC stats: 2022 (EL, horse fall) and 2018 (clear inside the time, with Andrew Nicholson)
Swallow Springs previous 5* XC runs: 6. Clear jumping: 4/6. Clear inside the time: 4/6 (Burghley 2018 with Nicholson, Badminton 2019 with Nicholson, Badminton 2022 with Townend, Luhm&uuml;hlen 2023 with Townend)
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<h1>FE Lifestyle &amp; Jennie Saville</h1>
DR Score &amp; Position: 31.1 (14th) XC Time &amp; Order: 13:35, 29th to go
<h3>One of the top three reliability ratings in the field (78% chance of jumping clear) and has outpaced 92% of opponents. First-timers at a British five-star.</h3>
 FE lifestyle has the same Expected XC Time (the other EquiRatings speed metric) as Swallow Springs, which is equal sixth among the field, and he has a 78% chance of jumping clear (compared to Swallow Springs&rsquo;s 72%). Well-rated XC horse tackling a British five-star for the first time (first-time British five-star for horse and rider).
Jennie has competed on British soil once before but not at 5* (a Bramham 4*-L in 2009).
Previous five-star XC runs for horse: 4. Has jumped clear 3/4. Clear inside the time 1/4 (Maryland 2022)
Previous five-star XC runs for rider (all time): 15
Previously outpacing 92% of opponents puts FE Lifestyle just outside the top 10 in the field (equal 11th with a few other horses here).
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<h1>Vitali &amp; Tim Price</h1>
DR Score &amp; Position: 18.7 (1st) XC Time &amp; Order: 15:05, 47th to go
<h3>With one of the most-experienced CCI5* riders in the field, Vitali has one of the top three reliability ratings with a 78% chance of jumping clear and has outpaced 92% of opponents.</h3>
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Vitali is partnered with the second-most experienced rider in the field as Tim has had 60 previous five-star XC runs since 2008, having been clear inside the time on 13 of those runs (22%) (Oliver Townend is the most-experienced in the field with 84 previous five-star XC runs since 2008).
Tim Burghley XC stats (all time): no clears-inside-the-time at Burghley out of 15 previous XC attempts all time.
Vitali Burghley XC stats: only previous Burghley was last year (with Tim); was clear with just 5.2 time.
Previous five-star XC runs for horse: 4. Has jumped clear 4/4. Clear inside the time 0/4.
<h1>Toledo de Kerser &amp; Tom McEwen</h1>
DR Score &amp; Position: 25.6 (4th) XC Time &amp; Order: 15:40, 54th to go (5th last on course)
<h3>The most-experienced five-star horse in the field, starting his 13th five-star XC run. One of the top three reliability ratings in the field (78% chance of jumping clear) and has outpaced 92% of opponents.</h3>
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Previous five-star XC runs for horse: 12. Has jumped clear 10/12. Clear inside the time 3/12 (Tryon 2018, Pau 2020, Tokyo 2021)
Tom and Toledo de Kerser were at Burghley once before (2017) where they added just 1.6 time in the XC (and went on to show jump clear as well, 4th place).
Previous five-star XC runs for rider (all time): 30 (6th most in the field), including 5 at Burghley
Previously outpacing 92% of opponents puts Toledo de Kerser just outside the top 10 in the field (equal 11th with a few other horses here).
Among the top 10 horses worldwide right now based on Elo ratings, in top 5 for Great Britain.
<a class="fbo-embed" style="max-width: 100%;" href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/462268296/" data-fbo-id="a6fe820a0d" data-fbo-ratio="3:2" data-fbo-lightbox="yes" data-fbo-width="100%" data-fbo-height="auto" data-fbo-version="1">The Stats &amp; Stories for Defender Burghley 2023</a>
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8 horses (and times) you need to follow today

The prestigious Badminton Horse Trials is set for an exhilarating showdown as the world's top eventing pairs vie for victory. We discuss the Top Five going into tomorrow&rsquo;s showjumping stage, each with their own unique strengths and accomplishments. These exceptional duos promise a fierce competition that will keep spectators on the edge of their seats.
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<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/b8313d86-f400-46a9-8ea9-0a9eaa91f6f6?width=1550&amp;height=1475" alt="Post Xc Prediction Centre Graphic" />
<h3>&nbsp;</h3>
<h3>Ros Canter &amp; Lordships Graffalo: Will they be Making History?</h3>
With a staggering win chance of 98% and an EquiRatings Elo Rating of 797, Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo are the favorites to secure the title. Having jumped clear in both their previous CCI5* rounds at Badminton 2022 and Pratoni 2022, the duo could become the first of the last four female World Champions (Zara Tindall, Sandra Auffarth, Ros Canter, and Yasmin Ingham) to win a five-star event following their world championship victory, despite the historical rarity of dressage leaders taking the win. Only twice since 2010 has the dressage leader at Badminton gone on to take the win: Michael Jung did so in 2016 on La Biostethique-Sam and last year, when Laura Collett took the win on London 52.&nbsp;
<h3>Austin O&rsquo;Connor &amp; Colorado Blue: Aiming for an Irish Milestone</h3>
Although their win chance is a slim 2%, Austin O&rsquo;Connor and Colorado Blue boast a podium chance of 90% and are the top-rated Irish combination with an EquiRatings Elo Rating of 690. While a win would end a 58-year Irish drought at Badminton, a podium finish would still mark a significant achievement for the nation, achieving the highest Irish finish in a CCI5* and securing the first podium since Jessica Harrington and Amoy in 1983. Colorado Blue has two rails in hand to stay on the podium tomorrow, which could beat Austin&rsquo;s best finish at Badminton when he finished fourth in 1999.
<h3>Oliver Townend &amp; Ballaghmor Class: A Streak of Top Finishes</h3>
Oliver Townend and Ballaghmor Class, with an impressive EquiRatings Elo Rating of 819, have a 79% podium chance. With nine previous CCI5* runs and eight top 5 finishes, another top 5 finish would place Ballaghmor Class second in the list of all-time top 5 finishes. A pair to watch closely, as just once have they managed to keep all the rails up on the final day at this level. Yet, with one rail in hand over Tim Price and two in hand over Tom McEwen they have some room for error.
<h3>Tim Price &amp; Vitali: The World Number 1's Uphill Battle</h3>
Tim Price, the FEI World Number 1, and his mount Vitali have a podium chance of 8% and an EquiRatings Elo Rating of 679. He has a challenging task ahead to maintain their current score, as Tim has seen three rails drop in the showjumping round of his last three CCI5* starts. A top 5 finish would place Price in the elite company of riders like Oliver Townend, Andrew Nicholson, Michael Jung, and William Fox-Pitt, who have achieved more than 20 top-five finishes at CCI5* events.
<h3>Tom McEwen &amp; Toledo De Kerser: The Show Jumping Powerhouse</h3>
Tom McEwen and Toledo De Kerser have a 20% podium chance and an EquiRatings Elo Rating of 795. As the top-rated show jumper in the field, Toledo De Kerser has a stellar track record, with 12 rounds at CCI5* and only ever knocking two rails. They are known to consistently put pressure on the podium with clear rounds.
&nbsp;
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With records at stake and an extraordinary lineup of contenders, spectators can look forward to an unforgettable showdown. Will Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo make history, or will another pair rise to the occasion and claim the coveted victory?
&nbsp;

The Top Five – Who Wins & What You Need To Know

Badminton entries were announced yesterday. We ran the predictions straight away, curious to see the early call. These are the top Badminton 2023 win chances based on the current entries and their results to date. To see the win, podium and top 10 chance for each and every entry, just head to the <a href="https://prediction-centre.equiratings.com/">Eventing Prediction Centre</a>. We'll be updating predictions closer to go-time as well.&nbsp;
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Nicole, Diarm and Rosie react to these early predictions on the <a href="https://podfollow.com/equiratings-eventing-podcast" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EquiRatings Eventing Podcast</a>.
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<h3>What stands out:</h3>
Laura Collett and London 52 (800 Elo) are at the top of the win chances. If the pair win for a second year in a row, history will repeat itself exactly 20 years on from Pippa Funnell and Supreme Rock&rsquo;s back-to-back Badminton wins in 2002 and 2023.
Swallow Springs (734) and Oliver Townend land higher than stablemate and five-star stalwart Ballaghmor Class (821). It&rsquo;s novel to see Ballaghmor Class outside the top 5 win chances.
Gemma Stevens and Jalapeno (673): For the first time since 2014, Gemma is here without Arctic Soul. With Jalapeno &ndash; who has strong CCI4* form and one previous CCI5* appearance (Pau 2019) &ndash; Gemma is back on the chase at Badminton.
Dacapo (672) and Laura are equal 7th on the win chances, giving Laura two in the top 10 (like Oliver). A Pau 2021 appearance is the only five-star under Dacapo&rsquo;s belt but he has (1) Laura at the helm (the Prediction Centre takes both horse and rider into account) and (2) strong CCI4* results.
See the full Badminton predictions on the <a href="https://prediction-centre.equiratings.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Eventing Prediction Centre</a> which will be updated pre-competition and after each phase.

Laura Collett aboard horse London 52 giving him a hug around the neck.

Our early predictions are live for Badminton 2023. Here are some initial thoughts.

Who is the best horse in the world? The world champion? The relentlessly consistent performer? The new and exciting wonderkid? Or maybe we shouldn&rsquo;t rule out the returning former champ? This question is the fundamental heartbeat of fan engagement in the sport. It isn&rsquo;t a particularly difficult task to create the shortlist and differing opinions are both essential (for engagement) and valid. While it is both a fun and interesting conversation, it isn&rsquo;t the real why behind measuring performance in equestrian sport.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h3>Objective insights</h3>
Part of the why is about the ability to rate and order the top 4,000 horses in the sport rather than just the top 4 horses. What the experienced and intuitive expert minds can manage is vital knowledge with nuances that no machine will compete with. But what the machine can process is a volume of information that no mind can keep up with. It can be worked around the clock to find trends and patterns in the data that experts can then build upon. The machine becomes the base of the pyramid that supports the knowledge layers on top.
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The practical crunch-point for any team is around the 3rd, 4th and 5th best combinations in the squad depending on whether it is an Olympic (three) or normal (four) team selection. If there is an obvious gap between the final team position and the first reserve, then it&rsquo;s not such a big problem. It&rsquo;s highly unlikely that the decision will compromise the chance of success and it is probable that the person left off the team will understand why that decision was made.
When the call is close is when the objective and intelligent metrics really matter. The objectivity removes the emotion. In reality, there&rsquo;s probably very little difference between the two choices and so it&rsquo;s not about making the &lsquo;right&rsquo; or &lsquo;wrong&rsquo; choice. None of us have a crystal ball and no machine can predict the future with certainty. There might be more of a difference than you think, so of course there is the possibility of a marginal gain and an increase in the chance of success if your decision is backed by evidence and science. But often we are just trying to make the best decision and ensure that the sufferer can, in time, accept this decision and be motivated to improve rather than become disillusioned or negative towards management.
This is why the metrics used must matter. They must be intelligent and meaningful. This is not the time to quote a statistic that is meaningless. &lsquo;They finished 4th last time and you were only 6th in your last result&rsquo;. Firstly, one result is not a good predictor of future performance in this sport. Secondly, what was the context of that result? Even a five-star can vary from excruciatingly competitive to lacklustre at best in terms of quality. The course difficulty also varies and these factors matter. That&rsquo;s why EquiRatings designs the metrics that matter most. It&rsquo;s about more than predictive performance. It&rsquo;s about confidence from our clients.
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<h3>Raising the bar</h3>
It&rsquo;s hard to get people to look beyond selection when it comes to our data analytics services. But this next sentence is a game-changer for any athlete or professional in the area of performance management. HOW we run faster is through training, nutrition and recovery, but WHY we run faster is the stopwatch. The objective, measurable and accountable truth of our performance output is what drives the human athlete to reach new heights. Opinions and feelings will vary and fluctuate from day to day. But a true measurement of performance is a constant that will truly inspire progress.
Know where your performance is now. Know how you compare to others and know whether or not you are improving. This knowledge is not just vital feedback and validation for your training system, it is the fuel that will inspire you to the next level.

Images of McLain Ward, Laura Collett, Michael Jung and Daniel Deusser against a grid-paper background with ruler markings. By EquiRatings.

Eventing