8 horses (and times) you need to follow today

About half will jump clear, very few if any will make the time. Here are the ones to get you a read on the course.

By Diarm Byrne / @diarmbyrne

September 2, 2023

Ballaghmor Class Horses to Follow

Table listing 8 horses to watch on Burghley's 2023 cross country day

Tregilder & Oliver Townend:

DR Score & Position: 30.5 (=12th but 13th on tiebreak)
XC Time & Order: 11:20, 2nd to go

Has outpaced 98% of opponents, more than any other horse in the field. Ranks about middle of field on XC jumping reliability. With most-experienced CCI5* rider in field.

Tregilder is partnered with the most experienced five-star rider in the field as Oliver has had 84 previous five-star XC runs since 2008. He was clear inside the time on 26 of those runs (31%), including twice at Burghley. (second-most experienced of riders in the field: Tim Price with 60 five-star XC runs since 2008).

Oliver’s Burghley XC stats (all-time): 2 clears-inside-the-time out of 26 Burghley attempts all time.

Tregilder’s only previous Burghley was last year; they were EL on the XC (horse fall).

Of three previous five-star XC runs, Tregilder had 11 pens at Bicton 2021, an EL at Burghley 2022 after horse fall, and was clear with just 1.2 time in Luhmühlen earlier this year.

 

Galileo Nieuwmoed & David Doel

DR Score & Position: 33.7 (25th)
XC Time & Order: 11:30, 4th to go

The second-most reliable horse in the field with a 79% chance of jumping clear and rated as one of the fastest horses here, having outpaced 93% of opponents.

 

According to Expected XC Time (a different EquiRatings speed metric), Galileo Nieuwmoed is the fastest horse in the field.

Previous five-star XC runs for horse: 5. Has jumped clear 4/5. Clear inside the time 3/5 (Pau 2021, Pau 2022, Kentucky 2023)

First Burghley for the horse

Previous five-star XC runs for rider (since 2008): 18

Among the top 20 horses worldwide right now based on Elo ratings, in top 10 for Great Britain.

 

Colorado Blue & Austin O’Connor

DR Score & Position: 34.9 (=27th but =29th on tiebreak; five-way tie on 34.9 but he & Wabbit dead even)
XC Time & Order: 12:25, 15th to go

The highest-rated cross country horse here. The most reliable in the field with an 80% chance of jumping clear and the second-fastest, having outpaced 97% of opponents.

 

Jumped clear and was the fastest at Badminton 2023 under especially difficult conditions. That XC result moved them up from 34th after dressage to 2nd after XC to ultimately produce the first Badminton podium for Ireland since 1983.

Previous five-star XC runs for horse: 5. Has jumped clear 5/5. Clear inside the time 3/5 (Pau 2020, Tokyo 2021, Badminton 2022)

First Burghley for the horse

Previous five-star XC runs for rider (since 2008): 20

Ireland’s highest rated horse based on Elo ratings, in the top 10 of horses here, and among the top 25 horses worldwide right now.

 

Viens du Mont & Luc Chateau

DR Score & Position: 42.2 (56th)
XC Time & Order: 12:55, 21st to go

A 75% chance of jumping clear which is just outside the top 10 here and is top 20 on speed, having outpaced 91% of opponents.

According to Expected XC Time (a different EquiRatings speed metric), Viens du Mont is the 5th fastest horse here. He delivered a clear-jumping round at Badminton this year and was the fourth-fastest horse on the day, behind only Colorado Blue, Lordships Graffalo, and Ballaghmor Class.

Previous five-star XC runs for horse: 2. Has jumped clear 2/2. Clear inside the time 1/2 (Pau 2022)

First Burghley for the horse

Previous five-star XC runs for rider (all time): 4

 

 

Swallow Springs

DR Score & Position: 24.2 (=2nd but straight 2nd on tiebreak)
XC Time & Order: 13:30, 28th to go

Top 3 in the field for speed, having outpaced 96% of opponents and has a 72% chance of jumping clear which is among the top 20 in the field. Oliver is the most experienced 5* rider here.

 

Swallow Springs is partnered with the most experienced five-star rider in the field as Oliver has had 84 previous five-star XC runs since 2008. He was clear inside the time on 26 of those runs (31%), including twice at Burghley. (second-most experienced of riders in the field: Tim Price with 60 five-star XC runs since 2008).

Oliver’s Burghley XC stats (all-time): 2 clears-inside-the-time out of 26 Burghley attempts all time.

Swallow Springs Burghley XC stats: 2022 (EL, horse fall) and 2018 (clear inside the time, with Andrew Nicholson)

Swallow Springs previous 5* XC runs: 6. Clear jumping: 4/6. Clear inside the time: 4/6 (Burghley 2018 with Nicholson, Badminton 2019 with Nicholson, Badminton 2022 with Townend, Luhmühlen 2023 with Townend)

 

 

FE Lifestyle & Jennie Saville

DR Score & Position: 31.1 (14th)
XC Time & Order: 13:35, 29th to go

One of the top three reliability ratings in the field (78% chance of jumping clear) and has outpaced 92% of opponents. First-timers at a British five-star.


FE lifestyle has the same Expected XC Time (the other EquiRatings speed metric) as Swallow Springs, which is equal sixth among the field, and he has a 78% chance of jumping clear (compared to Swallow Springs’s 72%). Well-rated XC horse tackling a British five-star for the first time (first-time British five-star for horse and rider).

Jennie has competed on British soil once before but not at 5* (a Bramham 4*-L in 2009).

Previous five-star XC runs for horse: 4. Has jumped clear 3/4. Clear inside the time 1/4 (Maryland 2022)

Previous five-star XC runs for rider (all time): 15

Previously outpacing 92% of opponents puts FE Lifestyle just outside the top 10 in the field (equal 11th with a few other horses here).

 

Vitali & Tim Price

DR Score & Position: 18.7 (1st)
XC Time & Order: 15:05, 47th to go

With one of the most-experienced CCI5* riders in the field, Vitali has one of the top three reliability ratings with a 78% chance of jumping clear and has outpaced 92% of opponents.

 

Vitali is partnered with the second-most experienced rider in the field as Tim has had 60 previous five-star XC runs since 2008, having been clear inside the time on 13 of those runs (22%) (Oliver Townend is the most-experienced in the field with 84 previous five-star XC runs since 2008).

Tim Burghley XC stats (all time): no clears-inside-the-time at Burghley out of 15 previous XC attempts all time.

Vitali Burghley XC stats: only previous Burghley was last year (with Tim); was clear with just 5.2 time.

Previous five-star XC runs for horse: 4. Has jumped clear 4/4. Clear inside the time 0/4.

Toledo de Kerser & Tom McEwen

DR Score & Position: 25.6 (4th)
XC Time & Order: 15:40, 54th to go (5th last on course)

The most-experienced five-star horse in the field, starting his 13th five-star XC run. One of the top three reliability ratings in the field (78% chance of jumping clear) and has outpaced 92% of opponents.

 

Previous five-star XC runs for horse: 12. Has jumped clear 10/12. Clear inside the time 3/12 (Tryon 2018, Pau 2020, Tokyo 2021)

Tom and Toledo de Kerser were at Burghley once before (2017) where they added just 1.6 time in the XC (and went on to show jump clear as well, 4th place).

Previous five-star XC runs for rider (all time): 30 (6th most in the field), including 5 at Burghley

Previously outpacing 92% of opponents puts Toledo de Kerser just outside the top 10 in the field (equal 11th with a few other horses here).

Among the top 10 horses worldwide right now based on Elo ratings, in top 5 for Great Britain.

The Stats & Stories for Defender Burghley 2023

 

 

 

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