The Most Misunderstood Metric in Equestrian Sport: Why Win Chance Matters

The Addiction of Prediction

At EquiRatings, prediction is more than a tool — it’s an obsession. Our mission is to make equestrian sports more engaging, more insightful, and ultimately, more understandable. But prediction is often misunderstood. The real power of data isn’t just in saying who will win; it’s in explaining why a result happens — or why it doesn’t.

This brings us to the most misinterpreted metric in our arsenal: Win Chance.

King Edward & Henrik von Eckermann (SWE) at the Paris 2024 Olympics. You can see why King Edward was widely considered a favourite, but our predictions only gave him a 7% win chance, just 1% higher than next best (see below). King Edward did not win. Checker 47 & Christian Kukuk (GER) did.

Our pre-competition predictions for the individual Olympic jumping champion. You can see the full predictions, frozen in time, on our Jumping Prediction Centre (where we publish predictions for most major classes throughout the year).

Why Win Chance Isn’t What You Think It Is

When people see our win chance percentages, they naturally focus on the favourite. That’s human nature — we look for certainty. But here’s the reality: in show jumping, a favourite might have a 10% chance to win and in eventing, that number might rise to 20% or, in rare cases, 30%. That means even the top horse is statistically more likely to lose than to win.

Our top 10 win chances for Badminton 2025. Lordships Graffalo did indeed win. You can see the predictions for the entire field, frozen in time, on our Eventing Prediction Centre where we publish predictions for most major events.

That’s what makes equestrian sport so uniquely unpredictable. Unlike football, where a dominant team often has a 50%+ chance of victory, horse sports operate in a world where the best in the world still have the odds stacked against them.

Think about that from a competitor’s perspective. Imagine riding King Edward (jumping) or Lordships Graffalo (eventing) — clearly the best in the world — yet knowing it’s highly probable you won’t even medal, let alone win. That’s pressure. That’s the brutal reality of horse sport.

Lordships Graffalo & Ros Canter (GBR) at Badminton 2025. Photo by Tilly Berendt.

Take Badminton 2025 for example. Lordships Graffalo & Ros Canter (GBR) entered with an unusually large win chance (36%). But after dressage, they weren't leading. After cross country, they weren't leading. Ros and Lordships Graffalo weren't leading until the the very last combination in the show jumping ring - Cooley Rosalent & Oliver Townend (GBR) - knocked a rail. Only for those final 25 seconds of the event were the winners winning.

Even though Lordships Graffalo & Ros entered on a very high win chance and laid down a near-perfect finish-on-dressage performance, it wasn't a runaway victory for the favourites.

So, Why Bother with Metrics?

Because numbers tell the story behind the sport.

For fans:

For fans, win chances help set the stage. They introduce the underdogs, the favourites, and the history-makers before a competition begins. They help us understand when an outsider has defied the odds or when a big name has lived up to expectations.

For management:

For management, EquiRatings provides an independent, objective voice — not replacing instinct or experience, but complementing it. We validate what people already feel, highlight names that deserve more attention, and sometimes, challenge conventional wisdom.

For competitors:

For competitors, win chances aren’t about one-off results. A single outcome can be misleading in either direction. What truly matters is moving the needle over time. Metrics give feedback on the process and that feedback fuels focus and motivation.

For purchasers & vendors:

For purchasers and vendors, decision-making is greatly aided by insight and context. How much is a horse worth? How many suitable horses are available? How does this horse compare to others based on what it has achieved and how much it costs? Finding horses is tough-going when you can’t start by evaluating every horse in the world based on performance. Making decisions is tough-going when you can't list, rank and compare horses based on their performance and their price. We now have a full team dedicated to solving these problems and the traction is growing rapidly (see our product guide here). 

Founders Final Thought

Being first with equestrian analytics has been a journey. Creating solutions to challenges within the sport is fun, stimulating and rewarding. The ideas are often the easy bit — the real challenge, and satisfaction, is how we communicate the purpose, learn from the feedback and refine the execution so these new innovations and approaches truly take-off. 

Final Thoughts

Thanks for reading! For fresh insights, follow us at news.equiratings.com. To learn more about our services, visit equiratings.com.