Adelaide 5*: The Southern Hemisphere’s Toughest Test

Adelaide’s 5 star is back, and this year’s edition promises tight margins, bold performances, and a fascinating test of cross-country skill. As the only CCI5*-L in the southern hemisphere, it brings a unique mix of atmosphere, intensity, and technical challenge.

Over the years, this event has delivered everything from record-breaking dressage scores to high-stakes shake-ups on cross country day. One thing’s certain: Adelaide doesn’t hand out wins easily.

Before we get to the Prediction Centre front-runners, let’s look at why this venue continues to test the best — from dressage highs to cross country time traps, and the rare feat of finishing on your dressage score.

Solid Starts: Dressage Matters

Looking at past performances, dressage can give riders a vital edge — especially if they can back it up with solid jumping:

• The best dressage score from the past 15 years? Megan Jones and Kirby Park Irish Jester (23.1 in 2009).

• Few have had the consistency to score low like Shane Rose has, who has posted multiple sub-30 scores here

Here are the combinations with the lowest 6RA in the field this year. The 6RA is a horse’s average dressage score from their last six international tests — a strong indicator of current form and consistency in the first phase.

Cross Country: The Real Decider

Adelaide’s cross country is often where dreams are made — or dashed. Historically, the course walks a fine line between tough and treacherous:

• In 2015, a remarkable 72% of the field jumped clear.

• But in 2018, just 13% managed that feat.

• In 2024, 55% jumped clear and 9% made the time — right on trend for an event where speed is the separator.

Time faults are frequent, and making the time here is a rare accomplishment. Riders who can balance boldness with control will climb the board fast. Based on TSP (Top Speed Percentage), these are the horses who have consistently outpaced the field. TSP measures the percentage of starters a horse has beaten on its fastest cross-country days. It doesn’t just reflect one quick round — it captures consistent high performance over time. A higher TSP means a horse isn’t just clear, it’s fast compared to its competitors.

Finishing on Your Dressage Score is Rare

Adelaide is a tough venue to go fault-free from start to finish. Since 2008, only seven combinations have managed to finish on their dressage score (FOD) — and three of those were from Chris Burton alone.

Even then, an FOD doesn’t guarantee a win; just two of those seven actually topped the podium. The best finishing score at Adelaide since 2008? Shane Rose and Virgil’s 28.5 in 2023 — not an FOD, but still the lowest winning score at the venue since records began.

The Prediction Centre Says…

These three combinations lead the EquiRatings Prediction Centre rankings heading into Adelaide:

1. Shenae Lowings & Bold Venture

They may be 5* debutants, but that hasn’t stopped Equilume rider Shenae Lowings & Bold Venture from topping the Prediction Centre with a 22% win chance. This is a combination that know how to deliver under pressure — and more importantly, knows exactly how to win at this venue.

They have won Adelaide CCI4*-S two years in a row, claiming the 2023 title with a final score of 34.7 and backing it up in 2024 with another wire-to-wire victory on 31.8. Both years featured foot-perfect cross-country rounds and rock-solid performances under pressure — the kind of form that turns a 5* debut into a serious threat.

The step up to 5* is the big unknown, but if past performance is any guide, this is a pair ready to shake up the leaderboard.

2. Shane Rose & Matrixx

Shane Rose is no stranger to success at Adelaide, with two wins since 2008 — in 2015 and most recently in 2023. This year, he returns with two exciting prospects, and both sit near the top of the Prediction Centre. While it’s a five-star debut for Matrixx, Shane brings a wealth of experience at this level, making him one of the most dangerous contenders in the field.

3. Shane Rose & The Bandit

Another five-star debutant, The Bandit comes in with a strong 13% win chance according to the Prediction Centre. While they may not lead the field in dressage, they’re one of the fastest combinations entered — boasting an impressive 88% Top Speed Percentage (TSP). The pair started the season well with a runner-up finish in the CCI4*-S at Tamworth in March, and with Shane’s experience guiding them, they’re a serious threat on cross-country day.

One to Watch: Willingapark Clifford

At 20 years old, Willingapark Clifford returns to Adelaide chasing what would be a world record: four CCI5*-L wins at the same venue. Already a three-time winner here with Hazel Shannon (2016, 2018, and 2019), he’s been a dominant force on this track. No horse in modern eventing history has claimed four five-star victories at a single location — and Clifford has the chance to do it on home turf. This combination are definitely one to keep an eye on this weekend.

🎧 Listen to the full episode on the EquiRatings Eventing Podcast.

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EquiRatings coverage of Adelaide Equestrian Festival is brought to you by Equilume.
Equilume uses the power of light to maximise fertility, performance and well-being for horses. Find out more at equilume.com

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