Against the Odds: Could Richard Vogel Miss the World Cup Final Qualification?

A Stellar Season, But Not a Guarantee

Richard Vogel has had an exceptional campaign in the 2024-2025 Longines FEI Jumping World Cup™ Western European League, securing two major victories in Stuttgart and Lyon aboard his outstanding stallion, United Touch S. With 42 points, he sits in 14th place in the standings—historically a safe position for Basel qualification.

Yet, in the unpredictable world of show jumping, no position is truly secure until the final points are counted. And while the odds are in Vogel’s favor, there remains a slim chance he could be pushed out of the Top 18.

According to EquiRatings' predictive analysis, the probability of Vogel missing out on Basel sits at around 7%—low, but not impossible.

What Would Need to Happen for Vogel to Miss Out?

For Richard Vogel not to qualify, at least five of the following eight scenarios would need to occur in Sunday’s World Cup in Gothenburg:

• Peder Fredricson wins
• Mario Stevens finishes on the podium
• Harrie Smolders finishes 5th or higher
• Edouard Schmitz finishes 7th or higher
• Kim Emmen finishes 8th or higher
• Denis Lynch finishes 9th or higher
• Steve Guerdat finishes 14th or higher
• Maikel van der Vleuten finishes 14th or higher

Each of these riders would need a high finish to collect enough points to push Vogel down the standings. The challenge? Many of these scenarios are unlikely to happen all at once.

Final Verdict: A Safe Bet, But Not a Lock

While five out of these eight scenarios happening simultaneously is a long shot, it’s not impossible. Vogel will not be competing in Gothenburg, meaning his fate rests entirely on the performances of others.

With a 93% chance of qualifying, Vogel and his team can be cautiously optimistic. But as the final leg in Gothenburg approaches, every rail, stride, and time fault could play a role in deciding the final list of competitors heading to Basel 2025.