Can Grandorado Fend Off a Wave of Five-Star Debutants in Amsterdam?
After Willem Greve claimed victory in Friday's De Telegraaf Prize, the home crowd will be watching to see if he can complete the double in front of a packed arena tonight at the 65th edition of Jumping Amsterdam.
Willem Greve arrives as the statistical favourite with a 15% win chance, riding Grandorado TN N.O.P., the horse he partnered to Friday's victory. The pair has a 49% chance of jumping clear in Round 1—the highest in the field—and Greve is riding a wave of form after topping two World Cup qualifiers this season.
Despite his legendary status, there's one gap in Grandorado's CV: he's never won an individual CSI5* 1.60m class. While Grandorado has been part of three five-star team wins for the Netherlands, the individual victory at this height has remained elusive. Is this his time?
French Challenge and Belgian Threat
The main obstacle to a Dutch celebration comes from France. Three of the last five winners have been French, with Julien Epaillard claiming the title twice in 2020 and 2024. Epaillard brings Easy Up De Grandry (5% win chance), fresh from a strong second-place finish on Friday, missing Willem Greve by just 0.22 seconds.
Belgium's Gilles Thomas on Chuck Marienshof Z presents another serious challenge with a 37% clear chance and a 9% win probability. The pair was clear in Round 1 on Friday and will be the pick if the Belgians are to upset the home nation.
The Debutante Factor
Tonight's field contains a remarkable statistic: 18 of the 42 starters are horses making their five-star 1.60m debut. To put this in context, only 4% of international horses ever reach this level in their careers. so to see nearly half the field taking this monumental step simultaneously is extraordinary.
Among the debutantes, several warrant attention. Before this weekend, James Connors Smyth's Elzandor Z had a perfect 2-from-2 record at 1.50m+, although knocked a pole last night.
Jodie Hall-McAteer's Key West brings strong volume with a solid clear rate, backed by two 3* Grand Prix victories late last year.
Coming into this weekend, Niels Bruynseels' Oaky Flandria had delivered five clears from six starts at 1.50m+ over the past three months—an 83% clear rate that suggests she's ready for the step up.
The Numbers Game
Historical data suggests consistency is the hallmark of this class. The Round 1 clear rate has held steady over the last five years at 24% (50 from 205), while the jump-off clear rate sits at 64% (32 from 50). This pattern suggests tonight will be about speed and tight lines once combinations navigate the first round.
Don't miss all of the EquiRatings coverage over on ClipMyHorse.TV's In/Out Show where our very own Charlotte Smet will be helping preview tonight's Grand Prix Van Amsterdam!