Changing of the Guard: Potential shifts among Top 10 Elo-rated horses

When we look at the Top 10 highest Elo-rated horses of the moment, we can’t help but notice their ages. Between aging horses and juggling horse and/or rider injuries, could we be seeing a shift among the Top 10? At 13 years old, KING EDWARD (803) is one of the youngest horses in the Top 10 of our Elo ranking. While he continues to climb the ranks, we see others start to fall behind. 

Ben Maher’s EXPLOSION W (798) was the first horse in history to ever reach an Elo of 804. He achieved this milestone two years ago after winning the Olympic Gold medal at the Tokyo Olympic Games. Right now, the chestnut gelding sports an Elo of 798, the second highest-rated horse of the moment. Yet we haven’t seen this combination compete internationally since Aachen in July last year. Explosion W’s return to competition has been postponed due to a rider injury for Ben Maher. While both horse and rider are due to make their competitive comeback soon, it remains challenging to envision them immediately regaining the same level of excellence they once displayed.

SCUDERIA 1918 TOBAGO Z (789) was the second of just two horses to ever achieve an Elo of 804. Earlier this year, Daniel Deusser and his chestnut stallion had been one of the combinations to beat at five-star 160, showing incredible consistency at this level. Unfortunately, since then Scuderia 1918 Tobago Z has been experiencing a slight drop in form. After not reaching the finish in the second round of the World Cup Finals, the stallion’s Elo has now dropped down to 789. At 15 years old, could Scuderia 1918 Tobago Z be starting to feel the consequences of his age?

We also see two 17-year-olds among the Top 10 highest-rated horses on Elo. Regardless of her age, HH AZUR (781) is coming fresh off two back-to-back Rolex Major Grand Prix wins. McLain Ward is surely aiming this mare for the Rolex Grand Prix of Aachen to become the second pair to win the Rolex Grand Slam of Showjumping. Despite being sidelined by an injury since November and undergoing surgery, the team supporting QUEL HOMME DE HUS (770) remains confident in his ability to make a triumphant return to competition, with the aim to take part in the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. However, it's worth noting that since 2010, no horse aged 18 or older has participated in a major championship event.

While some of these older horses could potentially be dropping out of the Top 10 soon, there are several younger horses ready to climb up the ranks. Simone Delestre’s CAYMAN JOLLY JUMPER already ranks seventh in the world, but at just 11 years of age there is room for him to climb into the Top 5. Age mate LEONE JEI (762) has also been lurking just outside the Top 10 waiting for a spot to open up. One of the most exciting young horses we have discussed at length is JAMES KANN CRUZ (761) At just 10 years old, he is already rated as the 15th best horse in the world. 

Will we see more young guns enter the Top 10 throughout this year or will experience hold its own?