Dark Horses to Watch: Who Could Surprise at Morven Park

The Prediction Center has its favorites: Miks Master C, Off The Record, Shanroe Cooley, and Possante are the names most expected to fill the podium. But in a sport where winning is always the exception, not the rule, even the top picks aren’t guaranteed.

At Morven Park, the numbers tell the story: fewer than half of starters have gone clear cross country and just eight combinations have made the time from the 80 to set out. A polished dressage test might earn attention, but it’s cross country pace and precision that will land you on the podium.

So, who else should we be watching? Here are three under-the-radar combinations who tick the boxes this course demands. And yes - it’s all girl power.

Caroline Pamukcu – HSH Double Sixteen

Caroline Pamukcu might be sitting with less than a 1% win chance according to the numbers, but don't let that fool you. Her mount HSH Double Sixteen has something special: speed. With a Top Speed Percentage (TSP) of 94%, this combination is the second-fastest in the class.

Their recent form is what stands out. Just last week at Stable View 4*, they jumped double clear to finish on their dressage score of 33.4 to win. Even more impressive? Caroline became only the second rider in five years to make the optimum time.

Double Sixteen is just 10 years old, which means there's still room to improve. While the dressage scores have been slightly high (6RA of 37.4), if Caroline can reproduce that 33.4 from Stable View and the time proves decisive at Morven Park, this young horse could make a serious climb up the leaderboard.

Tamie Smith – Kynan

With a 6% win chance, Tamie Smith and Kynan have more respect from the prediction models centre  but are still an under-rated combination. Kynan's six-run average sits at 30.4, but this horse frequently scores in the 20s, which could put them right in contention after dressage.

The cross-country record is a bit mixed (50% XCJ10), but when this pair gets it right, they get it very right. At their last 4*L, they jumped double clear to finish just off the podium in fourth place. Tamie's show jumping record with Kynan is spotless over the last six outings.

Perhaps most importantly, Tamie knows how to win at Morven Park - she took the title here in 2022. That kind of course knowledge and experience is invaluable.

Jennie Brannigan – Kismet

At less than 1% win chance, Jennie Brannigan and Kismet are a dark horse. But dig into the data, and you'll find a combination perfectly suited for Morven Park's demands.

Kismet boasts a perfect 100% XCJ10 record and a top speed percentage of 93% - one of the highest in the entire field. Yes, some of those metrics come from the level below, but the horse's second-ever 4* start in July saw them jump clear and inside the time, proving they can handle the step up.

For Brannigan, this marks her 30th 4*L start - an experienced pilot on a horse still finding his feet at the top level. The dressage scores at four-star suggest there's still some work to do, but if they can deliver a solid jumping performance across both phases, they could easily outperform expectations.

The Verdict

Morven Park rewards horses that are brave, fast, and careful and riders who know when to push and when to play it safe. While the favorites will certainly be competitive, these three combinations have the profiles to thrive.