Defender Burghley 2025: Who’s in the Mix for the Title?

Defender Burghley is nearing — and the EquiRatings Prediction Centre has spoken. With Oliver Townend and Cooley Rosalent’s late entry bringing the drama, this year’s line-up is stacked with storylines.

Here’s how the top contenders stack up.

1. Ros Canter & Lordships Graffalo – 47% win chance,

The defending champions are not just back, they’re chasing history. Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo could become only the second combination to win Burghley back-to-back. They hold the record finishing score here (23.6), arrive as reigning European Champions, and already added a Badminton title to their CV this spring. Fresh from their CCI4*-S win in Hartpury last month on 22.8, the Prediction Centre has them as heavy favourites.

2. Oliver Townend & Cooley Rosalent – 16% win chance

Oliver is a nine-time 5* winner, three-time Burghley champion, and simply put — he knows how to win. Cooley Rosalent is only 11 years old and already has a 5* victory on her record (Defender Kentucky 2024). Last year at Burghley, their campaign ended early with a fall at the Rolex Corners, but they came back in style this spring with a runner-up finish at Badminton, just behind Graffalo. Having come that close, they won’t want to settle for second again.

3. Emily King & Valmy Biats – 11% win chance

Emily King and Valmy Biats return for their third Burghley. The event hasn’t been kind to them in the past — a frangible pin in 2023 and an early XC penalty in 2024 cut their chances short — but this is still a proven 5* partnership with two Badminton top-5 finishes. A podium here would mark Emily’s first at 5* level, and a win would be the biggest moment of her career so far.

4. Tim Price & Vitali – 8% win chance

Tim Price — a Burghley veteran, a previous winner (2018), and one of the most consistent performers at this venue. Vitali has already had three top-5 finishes here, including second place last year, and they arrive fresh from a win in Aachen against some of the best in the world. They hold the Burghley dressage record (18.7 in 2022) and have never had a cross-country jumping penalty together. It's always a question of showjumping for Vitali, and while Badminton didn't quite go their way, they only had one down at this venue last year. Maybe it’s their lucky arena?

5. Austin O’Connor & Colorado Blue – 3% win chance

If Burghley comes down to cross-country brilliance, keep your eyes on Austin O’Connor and Colorado Blue. The Maryland 5* winners (2023) and Irish Olympic stars (best of the Irish in both Tokyo and Paris) finished 3rd at Badminton this spring. Salty is the highest-rated Irish horse in history and thrives on a good Saturday speed and stamina test. If they’re close after dressage, they’ll climb.

6. Harry Meade & Annaghmore Valoner – 2% win chance

World No. 1 Harry Meade has unfinished business — both at Burghley and at 5* level overall — and Annaghmore Valoner could be the one to deliver it. Fourth here last year on the mare’s 5* debut, they impressed across all three phases, but it was their clear inside the time cross-country that really turned heads. Could this finally be the combination to give Harry his long-awaited first 5* win?

7. Harry Meade & Cavalier Crystal – 2% win chance

Harry’s second ride, Cavalier Crystal, has been third at Burghley two years in a row and added a fourth place at Badminton this spring. They have finished on their dressage score in their last two 5* starts. If they do it again, they’d become only the sixth combination to FOD three or more times at 5* level since 2008. Of the five to have achieved that, four have gone on to win a 5*. If Cavalier Crystal can FOD again here, history suggests a 5* victory is on the cards.

8. Gaspard Maksud & Zaragoza – 2% win chance

Gaspard Maksud and Zaragoza finished sixth at Burghley last year. This will be their fifth 5* together, including the World Championships in Pratoni in 2022, where they finished inside the top ten. France hasn’t had a rider on a 5* podium since Pau in 2022, and no French rider has ever stood on the Burghley podium in the modern era (since 2008). Zaragoza is strong across all three phases — could this be the year?

9. Christoph Wahler & D’Accord FRH – 2% win chance

Christoph Wahler and D’Accord FRH are the first German pair to line up at Burghley since 2018. With top-10 finishes at both Kentucky 2024 and Badminton 2025, they arrive as experienced 5* campaigners for their Burghley debut. They’ve already made the time at the level twice before, and if they do it again here, we could see a Saturday climb.

10. Samantha Lissington & Lord Seekonig – 1% win chance

If you haven’t already heard, this is Sam Lissington’s season. Badminton didn’t go to plan for this pair, but they rerouted to Bicton CCI4*-S and delivered an impressive 2nd place, only beaten by Olympic champions Laura Collett and London 52. Lord Seekonig was 11th at Luhmühlen 5* last year and now steps up again as Sam aims for another big result. Sam also claimed her first-ever 5* podium earlier this year at Luhmühlen with Ricker Ridge Sooty GNZ. She’s in form and she’s hungry.

Roll on Defender Burghley 2025

Yes, Ros and Lordships Graffalo lead the way — but Townend’s late entry, Price’s consistency, King’s  potential, and a chasing pack all add layers to the story. 

As always, Defender Burghley is going to be a good one.

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