Everything you need to pick the Boekelo winner
Scroll for all the info you need and who might win this one.
Cooley Park Muze has beaten the horses in this field 62 times in 68 meetings. Boekelo has a habit of turning on the favourite.
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21% Cooley Park Muze’s win chance, top of the model |
62–6 record against this field since 2025 |
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8 of 17 cross-country leaders who went on to win here |
0 Dutch winners since 2008 |
95 horses, 80 riders, 15 nations. Gemma has never had a top-10 finish here in seven visits. Here is what the numbers say about who wins.
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How many Boekelo winners since 2008 had a cross-country jumping penalty? Tap to revealEasy one. None. All 17 winners jumped clear. You knew that one. |
Eventing Manager
Picking your team for Boekelo?
Cooley Park Muze is the most expensive horse in Eventing Manager at 2.4m and is already in 40% of teams. The numbers below will help you decide who joins the horse, and who to swap out.
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Who the model likes EquiRatings Prediction Centre, pre-competition |
Win chance. Gemma Stevens’s two rides highlighted.
Gemma has two of the top five. Together that is a 28% chance, more than double any other rider.
Cristal Fontaine has the higher Elo, 697 to 682, but sits second on the model.
What’s Elo?
Elo is the EquiRatings' rating given to horses which tracks their carer performances. It climbs based on who they beat, who beats them. — the higher the number, the better. Cristal Fontaine’s 697 is the highest in the field.
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What win chance does the model give the defending champion’s highest-rated horse? Tap to reveal1%. Lara de Liedekerke-Meier won last year with Kiarado D’Arville. Her highest-rated horse this week, Quintus, is 18th on the model. |
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How Boekelo is won 17 editions since 2008 |
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17/17 winners jumped clear across country |
26.2 average winning dressage |
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4.1 average place after dressage |
28.1 average winning score |
13 of 17 winners were at Boekelo for the first time. This year, 69 of the 96 horses are.
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Who has won Boekelo the most times since 2008? Tap to revealThree riders have two wins each: Julia Mestern (2008, 2009), Tim Price (2017, 2022) and Julia Krajewski (2018, 2024). Tim and Julia Krajewski are both here. |
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The poles fall on Sunday Show jumping is the final phase |
19%
of show jumping rounds were clear inside the time at Boekelo last year
Laura Collett led after cross-country in 2022, 2024 and 2025. A pole each time: 3rd, 2nd, 6th.
Last year Kiarado D’Arville won from 6th after cross-country, the biggest comeback in our data. Here is who leaves the poles up.
SJ6: average show jumping faults, last six rounds. Shorter bar is better.
What’s SJ6?
SJ6 is a horse’s average show jumping faults from its last six international rounds. SJ6 Adj compares a horse’s recent show jumping faults to the average faults of the field on those same courses — the lower the number, the better. Bronco NRW’s −4.8 is the best in the field.
Cooley Park Muze has had a pole in 3 of the last 5 runs. Barrington Boy has not had one in six.
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The cross-country question Clear is compulsory for a Boekelo winner |
XCJ10: clear cross-country jumping rounds in the last 10. XCJ10 Adj: The Highlander +31%, Hitchqote Du Coudray +26%, Kinda Corvette +17%, Cooley Park Muze +15%, Ero De Cantraie +5%, Cristal Fontaine +5%, Barrington Boy −3%.
What’s XCJ10?
XCJ10 is the percentage of clear cross-country jumping rounds a horse has produced in its last 10 international starts. XCJ10 Adj compares that to the average clear rate of all horses on those same courses — a positive number means the horse is clearing on days when others are not.
Cristal Fontaine had 20 and 11 jumping penalties in two of three summer runs. Barrington Boy had 11 at Blenheim a fortnight ago.
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The crowd v the model What Eventing Manager players are picking |
The most popular horse in Eventing Manager is not the favourite. Cushlas Indigo is in 41% of teams, just ahead of Cooley Park Muze.
Most picked
% of teams · price · model win chance
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Cushlas Indigo Katie Magee · 2.1m |
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41% win 6% |
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Cooley Park Muze Gemma Stevens · 2.4m |
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40% win 21% |
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The Highlander Tim Price · 2.2m |
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24% win 3% |
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Barrington Boy Izzy Taylor · 2.0m |
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24% win 5% |
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Kinda Corvette Yasmin Ingham · 2.2m |
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21% win 7% |
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Nakota Sarah Bullimore · 1.6m |
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20% win <1% |
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Classic VI Kirsty Chabert · 2.1m |
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19% win 2% |
Team selections at the time of writing. Nakota is outside the model’s top 18.
Cristal Fontaine is second on the model and in just 4% of teams.
Elipso De La Vigne is joint third on the model and in 1% of teams. The catch: no run since Vittel in June.
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Which horse is in more Eventing Manager teams: Cristal Fontaine or Sarah Bullimore’s Nakota? Tap to revealNakota, by five to one. Nakota is in 20% of teams at 1.6m. Cristal Fontaine, the second favourite on the model, is in 4% at 2.3m. |
Eventing Manager
Back the crowd or back the model?
Build your Boekelo team before the first horse goes into the arena.
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Seven to watch Tap the grey panels for more |
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Cooley Park Muze Gemma Stevens (GBR) |
21% win chance |
The form horse. Won Thoresby and Scone CCI4*-S this year and was 5th at Chaumont CCI4*-L on 29.8. Only Kinda Corvette and Barrington Boy have finished ahead when both completed.
What are 6RA and TSP?
6RA is a horse’s average dressage score across their last six international tests — anything in the low 30s is competitive at four-star level. TSP — Top Speed Percentage — is the percentage of opponents a horse has outpaced on its three fastest days in the last 10. Cooley Park Muze’s 97% is the best in the field.
The case against
- 3 of 5 runs with a pole: Burnham Market, Chaumont, Alnwick.
- 0 top 10s for Gemma at Boekelo in seven starts. Best: 13th.
- 1 CCI4*-L completed. This would be the second.
- 22% chance of a cross-country jumping penalty.
Head-to-heads
| v Chilli Morning IV | 4–0 |
| v DSH Golden Eye | 3–0 |
| v Classic VI | 2–0 |
| v Kananaskis | 2–0 |
| v Kinda Corvette | 2–1 |
| v Barrington Boy | 2–1 |
| v Cristal Fontaine | 1–0 |
Meetings since 2025. A finisher beats a non-finisher.
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Cristal Fontaine Kitty King (GBR) |
13% win chance |
The highest Elo in the field and 7th here in 2024, clear across country and clear show jumping. Both of Kitty’s Boekelo completions are top 10s.
Summer form
- Bramham CCI4*-S: 11th, clear XC
- Aston Le Walls CCI4*-S: 53rd, 20 XC penalties
- Alnwick CCI4*-S: 14th, 11 XC penalties
- Last run 30 July, nine weeks ago
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Barrington Boy Izzy Taylor (GBR) |
5% win chance |
Eight years old and making a CCI4*-L debut. Won the Scone CCI3*-L on 26.9 without adding a penalty, then 2nd at Alnwick CCI4*-S. A win would equal the youngest Boekelo winner since 2008.
Izzy has 6 clear-inside-the-time rounds at Boekelo, more than any rider since 2008.
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Kinda Corvette Yasmin Ingham (GBR) |
7% win chance |
The quiet climber: +207 Elo since early 2025 and 63–14 against this field. 5th at Blenheim CCI4*-S a fortnight ago.
The blot: 20 cross-country penalties at Chaumont CCI4*-L in May. Yasmin’s best here is 4th, in 2022.
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Ero De Cantraie Julia Krajewski (GER) |
5% win chance |
Julia has won Boekelo twice, in 2018 and 2024, both times as the top-rated horse. Those are the only two wins for the Elo favourite here since 2008.
Ero De Cantraie brings the dressage (27.7 average this year) but retired at Strzegom CCI4*-L and was eliminated at Baborowko this spring.
The twist
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Three chances to defend Lara de Liedekerke-Meier (BEL) |
The defending champion has ridden Boekelo 19 times, more than anyone since 2008. Kiarado D’Arville is not back.
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Quintus 5th Strzegom CCI4*-L |
615 Elo |
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La La Land D’Arville Won Arville CCI4*-L in July |
596 Elo |
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Call Me Senorita Won Strzegom CCI4*-S this month |
590 Elo |
La La Land D’Arville is one of two horses here with a CCI4*-L win in the last two years. The other is The Highlander.
In Eventing Manager, Call Me Senorita is the popular pick (16% of teams). Quintus and La La Land D’Arville are in 3% each, all at 2.1m.
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Hitchqote Du Coudray Astier Nicolas (FRA) |
4% win chance |
The best dressage horse on paper: the lowest 6RA in the field and 23.5 at Blenheim two weeks ago.
The catch: the dressage leader has won Boekelo once since 2008, and there were 12 show jumping faults at Blenheim.
Eight more stories from the start list
- Bronco NRW (Arne Bergendahl): 5th here last year, no show jumping poles in nine rounds.
- Class Affair (Zara Tindall): 7th here in 2019, 12th in 2022, won Hartpury CCI4*-S in August.
- Top Job’s Jalisco (Nadja Minder): clear inside the XC time on both Boekelo visits.
- Classic VI (Kirsty Chabert): 48–8 against this field, at 17.
- Kananaskis (Cerys Macaulay): clear XC in all nine starts since 2025, at 18.
- The Highlander (Tim Price): won the Strzegom CCI4*-L in June.
- Canela (Jenny Glebenius): 3 wins from 9 runs, never an XC penalty, 38.5 dressage average.
- Our own Sam Watson rides two: Ballyneety Rocketman and Ballybolger Goldman.
Five ways to pick a winner
| The model | Cooley Park Muze |
| Highest Elo | Cristal Fontaine |
| Best form v this field | Cooley Park Muze |
| Boekelo history | Ero De Cantraie š |
| Eventing Manager players | Cushlas Indigo |
The model and the form agree. The Elo, the history and the crowd each go their own way.
Eventing Manager
Who is on your team?
Back the favourite at 2.4m, take a punt on Cristal Fontaine in 4% of teams, or follow the crowd to Cushlas Indigo. Sunday’s show jumping gets the final say.
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