Why Look Back?

Statistics rarely give us the whole story, but they do reveal repeatable patterns. By digging into the pre‑championship data of the last seven editions, we can identify the traits that consistently surface on the podium.

Below, we recap the headline numbers from those years and translate them into practical take‑aways for 2025.

Digging Deeper: What the Numbers Tell Us

Underdogs are rare

Since 2011, just two of the 21 podium finishers have arrived with an Elo rating below 700. Both stories underline how exceptional an upset it takes to buck the rating model:

SFN Zenith & Jeroen Dubbeldam (Gold, 2015) came in as the 42‑ranked pair on an Elo of 651, having logged only 2 clears from 10 pre‑European rounds at five-star 160 level. It is to be noted, however, that two of their non-clears were 1 time penalty rounds, showing they were more than capable of producing the clear over fences.

Philipp Weishaupt’s Zineday (Silver, 2023) entered the Milan European Championships as one of the youngest horses in the field at 9 years old. While his Elo rating of 694 at the start of the Championships put him among the top-rated horses in his age category, he ranked 35th in the field in Milan. Yet his individual medal was not a complete surprise as Zineday entered the Europeans on extremely strong five-star 160 form with 5 clears from 7 rounds jumped. Throughout the Milan Championships, the pair only knocked one rail over 5 rounds of jumping.

The average Elo rating of the individual European medalists sits around the 734 mark. Ratings may not crown the champion every time, but they rarely miss completely.

When the Ratings Lined Up: Gothenburg 2017

The Elo rating was virtually clairvoyant during the 2017 edition of the FEI Jumping European Championships held in Gothenburg where there podium mirrored the ratings and Peder Fredricson & H&M All In left with the Individual Gold medal when they entered as the top-rated pair on an Elo of 779.

The other podium places were filled with horses who entered on top Elo ratings: silver went to Harrie Smolders & Don VHP who entered as the third-rated pair in Gothenburg on an Elo of 764, while Cian O’Connor & Good Luck picked up bronze after entering as 5th rated in the field on an Elo of 761.

How the Champions Managed their Campaign

Winners favour a moderate campaign. Every gold‑medallist since 2011 prepped on 6 to 11 rounds at five-star 160 level (averaging approximately 10). None came in short of work (< 5) or run (> 15). A balanced schedule, neither rusty nor run‑ragged, has been the sweet spot.

Clear‑round dominance doesn’t guarantee gold. In four editions (2011, 2019, 2021, 2023) the horse with the highest pre‑event clear‑rate stood on the silver step. Champions have averaged a workman‑like 47 % clear rate at five-star 160 level in the 7-8 months leading up the the championship, proving you don’t need a 70 %+ strike‑rate to win Europeans.