Greya Returns, Streaks On The Line, And A Wildcard With A Perfect Record

The CSI5* $500,000 Fidelity Investments Grand Prix at Wellington is a class that has kicked off some record-breaking seasons. Last year, Kent Farrington and Greya won this Grand Prix, beating Olympic Champions Christian Kukuk and Checker 47. 

That win didn’t just matter on the night. It launched a season where Farrington and Greya went on to produce nine five-star wins, resetting the sport’s single-season record. He returns as favourite to win tonight. Martin Fuchs won here with Clooney in 2019 and Kent won with Gazelle in 2017.

The favourite returns (and the numbers back it up)

If you want a combination that has earned the right to be called the safest bet on the property, it’s Farrington and Greya. The EquiRatings Prediction Model gives them the highest clear-round probability in the field at 59%. The numbers expect to see them reach the Jump Off and if they do, they are 11 clears from 14 160 Jump Offs (and nine wins). They are by truely exceptional finishers.

Kent has just lost the FEI World Number 1 armband to Scott Brash and a win tonight might be enough to take it back depending on how the rest of the month plays out.

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A clear means history: two streaks on the line

For two combinations in tonight’s field, the story isn’t just about winning. Its about a clear in the first round and keeping an extraordinary streak alive.

Both Nina Mallevaey and Dynastie de Beaufour (10 clear rounds in a row at 5* 160 level) and Daniel Bluman and Corbie V.V. (9 clear rounds in a row at 5* 160 level) arrive in Wellington sitting on elite CSI5* 1.60m clear-round streaks.

Since 2010, only 10 combinations have managed to jump 10 or more consecutive clears at CSI5* 1.60m level.

If Mallevaey and Dynastie de Beaufour jump clear again tonight, they would produce their 11th consecutive clear, and only seven combinations have ever reached that mark.

Meanwhile, Bluman and Corbie V.V. have the chance to become only the 11th combination in recent history to reach the 10-clear milestone.

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The wildcard with the perfect record (and a model that isn’t convinced…yet)

Every great Grand Prix needs one storyline that doesn’t fit neatly into the numbers.

Tonight, that role belongs to Richard Vogel and Gangster Montdesir.

The EquiRatings model gives them a more cautious clear-round probability of 38%, largely because there is a smaller sample size at this specific height.

But their form tells a different story.

In their last 12 months of CSI5* 1.60m competition, they are 3 from 3, with a 100% clear rate. The computer calls him a risk, but it is one we are watching closely. This horse who only made his five-star Grand Prix debut in late 2025.

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How many clears should we expect?

Over the last 10 years, the average Round 1 clear rate in this class is 23%, and the EquiRatings model is predicting 10 clears tonight. That isn’t unheard of at five-star level, but it does matter because it shapes the class. A jump-off of 10 creates pressure.

It’s big enough that riders can’t just “go steady and hope”, but small enough that every rail in Round 1 feels expensive.

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The jump-off specialists 

If Round 1 is the gateway, the jump-off is where conversion matters.

And in tonight’s field, there are combinations who are statistically terrifying once they get there.

The benchmark is still Farrington and Greya:

• 14 times they have been in a 160 Jump Off

• 11 clears (A 79% jump-off clear rate)

• 9 wins

• 11 podiums

But maybe more under the radar is McLain Ward and High Star Hero. Their jump-off record is simple and ruthless:

3 wins from 7 jump-offs.

McLain Ward has more WEF International wins since 2016 than any other rider. 44 wins from 497 starts coming into what will be a milestone weekend.

Ben Maher to end a long wait tonight?

Enjeu De Grisien has a 100% Jump-Off Clear Rate (4 for 4) and 100% Podium Rate (4 Podiums in 4 Attempts). He doesn't make mistakes when the pressure is on but equally, it has been too long a wait to win a big one for the former World number 1 and former Olympic champion.

Final Jump off mention, watch out for Mimi Gochman if she makes it through. She will be last to jump round 1 and she has four clears from 5 jump offs at this level.

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Tomorrow’s Headlines

This Fidelity Investments Grand Prix has become a rare moment in the season where the result can mean more than the prize money. Sometimes it crowns a champion. Sometimes it signals a record-breaking year.

And tonight, with Greya returning, streaks on the line, and a wildcard trying to stay perfect, it feels like one of those Wellington evenings where a big story is about to unfold.

Check out the Fan Guide for the the full breakdown