How Paris Proved the Power of Data in Eventing: Lessons for LA 2028

Looking back, where were the Paris individual medallists three-and-a-half years before their podium moment?

What did we learn from the Paris podium? Never write off Michael Jung. The horse that had led and lost every major championship he had contested (5!) didn’t lead but did win in Paris. Never doubt Laura Collett. Her partnership endured falls, flags, and run-outs before bringing home a second team Olympic gold and an individual bronze medal. And never forget Chris Burton. The man who walked away from the sport, returned, and claimed the individual silver.

Michael Jung & fischerChipmunk FRH in Paris. Photo by Tilly Berendt.

Those are the stories (and we love those at EquiRatings!) but let’s dig into the cold hard facts. Forget the riders and medals for a moment. How were their horses performing at the start of 2021? And how many future champions might be lurking out there right now, waiting for their moment on the LA stage?

Why Use a Metric Rather Than a Statistic?

When it comes to performance, some stats flatter, but metrics matter. For example, how fast someone can run 100m is useful—it’s a good proxy for performance. But equestrian sports are full of misleading ‘stats’ that tell us little about the future. That’s where EquiRatings came in 10 years ago. We combined domain knowledge and data science to create metrics that matter.

This approach changes how we think. Data insights aren’t magic, but they challenge gut feelings and save countless hours of manual research. For years, I spent hours every day scrolling websites and building spreadsheets. Modern data science does that work in minutes—and with far better results.

The Metric That Predicted the Paris Podium

The EquiRatings Elo is our most powerful metric for predicting consistency and quality. Every international horse has an Elo rating. Horses lose points when beaten by lower-rated competitors and gain points when defeating higher-rated ones. The best horses consistently beat top competition.

Here’s what the data revealed about Paris medallists at the start of 2021:

• Chipmunk (Elo 839): The highest-rated 13-year-old globally.

• Shadow Man (Elo 671): The highest-rated 11-year-old.

• London 52 (Elo 726): The second highest-rated 12-year-old, behind Tokyo medallist Vassily de Lassos.

Interestingly, all three were already into double figures in age. While many look at 7-year-olds as the next big thing, these horses proved that established performers shine brightest.

The gold-medal-winning Team GB at Paris 2024. From left to right: Tom McEwen & JL Dublin, Ros Canter & Lordships Graffalo, Laura Collett & London 52. Photo by Tilly Berendt.

So, Who Wins LA?

We can’t predict the future, but we can maximize our chances by making smart decisions. Here are four horses to watch who each start the 2025 season as the highest-rated horse in their age group:

• The 13-Year-Olds: Lordships Graffalo (855). Higher rated now than Chipmunk was before Paris. Can Graffalo avenge the flag?

• The 12-Year-Olds: Zaragoza (729). A rising star with medals on the horizon.

• The 11-Year-Olds: Nickel 21 (750). Already an Olympian and Aachen winner, this horse has championship potential.

• The 10-Year-Olds: HSH Blake (684). A home crowd favorite with Olympic experience.

The Elo has become indispensable to riders, owners, and agents. Whether identifying high-potential youngsters or proven championship contenders, our metrics guide smarter decisions in horse purchasing.

Find Your Next Champion

From hidden gems to medal contenders, EquiRatings can help you navigate the world of horse sales. Reach out to our sales team at sales@equiratings.com or explore our product guide here.

Final Thoughts

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