Ireland Leads Team Predictions Model Heading Into Aachen
The team model puts Ireland at the top heading into Aachen, with Germany and Belgium close behind and a competitive group of contenders just below.
FEI Jumping World Championships, Aachen, August 19–23
Ireland comes out on top in the team model heading into Aachen, at least on paper. The model gives the Irish an 19.7% chance of team gold at the FEI Jumping World Championships, the highest number of any nation among the 31 teams in the win chances table.
Germany sits second at 14.8%, with Belgium at 12.1%. Those three make up the leading group in the model, with Germany also having the advantage of competing in front of a home crowd. Brazil, France, the USA and Switzerland form the next group, each with a win chance between 7.6% and 9.7% and a top-3 chance above 24%.
The stakes go beyond medals this year. Aachen doubles as the first Olympic qualifier for Los Angeles 2028, with seven direct team quota spots on offer in jumping. Every nation in this table is chasing a world title and a ticket to LA at the same time.
Team Win Chances
| Team | Win | Top 3 | Top 5 | Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRL | 19.7% | 44.2% | 60.5% | 83.8% |
| GER | 14.8% | 38.2% | 55.2% | 81.1% |
| BEL | 12.1% | 31.4% | 47.1% | 75.9% |
| BRA | 9.7% | 27.1% | 43.6% | 72.5% |
| FRA | 8.8% | 25.8% | 42.8% | 73.1% |
| USA | 8.3% | 24.9% | 39.9% | 69.8% |
| SUI | 7.6% | 24.3% | 40.0% | 70.4% |
| SWE | 4.4% | 14.8% | 26.4% | 56.8% |
| GBR | 3.4% | 14.6% | 26.7% | 57.5% |
| NED | 2.1% | 8.8% | 16.8% | 42.9% |
| ITA | 2.0% | 8.7% | 17.4% | 43.6% |
| CAN | 1.2% | 4.8% | 10.7% | 31.5% |
| ISR | 1.1% | 4.3% | 8.7% | 24.3% |
| ARG | 1.0% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 17.0% |
| MEX | 1.0% | 4.6% | 10.4% | 32.2% |
| KSA | 0.9% | 5.6% | 12.2% | 35.6% |
| DEN | 0.6% | 2.8% | 6.3% | 21.7% |
| AUT | 0.6% | 2.8% | 6.4% | 20.9% |
| NZL | 0.4% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 15.6% |
| ESP | 0.3% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 14.4% |
| UAE | 0.3% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 15.2% |
| EGY | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 9.7% |
| AUS | 0.2% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 10.7% |
| JPN | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 7.9% |
| NOR | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 6.0% |
| POR | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 5.3% |
| HUN | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.5% |
| RSA | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% |
| POL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| COL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| TUR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
Seven teams currently sit ahead of the rest in the model. Ireland, Germany and Belgium each have a top-3 chance above 30%, while all three also have a top-10 chance above 75%. Brazil, France, the USA and Switzerland make up the group directly behind, with top-5 numbers all above 39%.
Sweden, the reigning world champions, and Great Britain appear best positioned to challenge that leading group. Both sit above 4% for the win and above 55% for a top-10 finish, putting them ahead of the next cluster. The Netherlands and Italy follow, each around 2% for the win but with top-10 chances above 42%.
Aachen could reshape a lot of this over three days. The team gold, the LA28 quota spots, and the direction of the sport heading into an Olympic cycle will all come down to which teams can put together their best performances when it matters most.