Ireland’s Golden Chance: 25th Aga Khan Trophy within Reach in Nations Cup

It’s time. The iconic Aga Khan Trophy is on the line this Friday at the Dublin Horse Show, and the host nation couldn’t be better placed to claim it. With a 34% win chance and a team stacked with talent, Ireland arrives as clear favourites, but the story of the Nations’ Cup is rarely so simple. Across two tough rounds, and maybe even a jump-off, history, heartbreak, and heroics will unfold in front of a roaring home crowd.

This is no exhibition match. From seasoned veterans to breakout stars, from local favourites to fierce rivals, the battle for the Aga Khan begins at 3pm on Friday. Here's what you need to know.

Ireland: Home Pressure and High Expectations

On paper, Ireland is the team to beat. Their win chance (34%) and podium probability (68%) are the best in the field and that without naming their top-rated combination, Darragh Kenny & Eddy Blue, on the squad. That’s how strong this team is. Denis Lynch opens with the seasoned Vistogrand, followed by rising stars Tom Wachman with Tabasco de Toxandria Z and Seamus Hughes Kennedy with ESI Rocky, the top-rated horse at the in this class with a staggering 70% clear rate at 5* 160 level and a freshly acquired 5th place finish at the European Championships last month. Then, there’s the anchor: Cian O’Connor, Ireland’s most decorated Nations Cup rider of the last decade.

The RDS roars for green jackets, but expectations can be heavy. Ireland has led the predictions before only to fall short. The question is whether this quartet can handle the pressure and finally bring home the 25th Aga Khan Trophy,  inching closer to Great Britain’s all-time record of 27 wins.

USA & Germany: Not at Full Force, But Not Out of It

The United States returns as defending champions but field a team focused more on development than dominance. McLain Ward & Callas bring elite form and experience as anchors, but the remaining three, including a nine-year-old and a pair of under-tested horses, have combined for just two clears at 5* 160 level all year. Still, Ward thrives under pressure, and the Americans love this arena. They won last year with only a 10% win chance, they’re on 14% this time.

Germany also sits on a 14% win chance, but the team lacks its usual firepower. Christian Ahlmann and Marco Kutscher bring experience, while newly crowned European Champion, Richard Vogel adds winning form to Sandra Auffahrt’s quality, though not all riders come in on proven partnerships. There’s potential here, particularly from Vogel, but this team isn’t setting the crowd alight on paper. And yet, Germany rarely fields a team that doesn't know how to win.

Challengers to Watch: GB, Mexico, and the Rest

Team GB is flying slightly under the radar at 10%, but don’t write them off. Donald Whitaker & Millfield Colette were superb at the Europeans, and Adrian Whiteway with Chacco Volo has shown great promise in top classes. With a team silver medal already in their pocket this summer, GB could be primed for a big breakthrough.

Mexico’s squad enters at 9% with flair and a hope of replicating their 2018 victory. Their surprise win in 2018 remains one of the most electric moments in modern Aga Khan history, and riders like Federico Fernandez and Eugenio Garza Pérez are capable of delivering again. Also lurking are the Netherlands, Canada, and Switzerland, each with podium pedigree and enough firepower to take advantage if the favourites falter. No team is a longshot, even the Swiss, with just a 5% win chance, bring Martin Fuchs & Conner Jei to the party who produced a double clear in this class last year.

One thing’s certain: This isn’t just another Nations’ Cup. This is Dublin. This is history. And Ireland might finally be ready to write their name on the Aga Khan Trophy for the 25th time. But standing in their way is a field of nations that knows exactly what it takes to spoil the party.

Buckle in. The jumping starts at 3pm.

Follow Along and Get More Insight

Want more stats, stories, and standout names before the action kicks off? Visit the EquiRatings Fan Guide from the Dublin Horse Show website, where you’ll find insights, predictions, stories & the start list.

https://equiratings.info/dublinfanguide2025friday

And if you prefer to listen, catch up on the Nations Cup Preview episode of the EquiRatings Jumping Podcast, where Sam Watson, Charlotte Smet, and Ali Barrett break down each team, every stat, and what it really takes to win the Aga Khan Trophy at home.