Is This Harry Meade's Five-Star?

Harry Meade has finished in the top five of a five-star twelve times. Six thirds, four fourths, two fifths. But he has never won one.

He went to the top of the FEI Eventing World Athlete Rankings in June 2025 and stayed there for twelve months, even without a five-star win to his name. He is world number two now. The man above him is Tim Price, who is also competing at Burghley this weekend.

The two-time defending champion is not here. Lordships Graffalo won Burghley in 2024 and 2025, took a record third Badminton in May, but Ros Canter has no ride this week. What is left is a field with no obvious winner in it.

Cavalier Crystal has started Burghley three times and finished third all three times.

A hundred and fifty-five horses have been on a Burghley podium since 1961. Seven have done it at least three times. Only five have managed three in a row.

Horse	The run	Wins
Avebury Andrew Nicholson	1st, 1st, 1st	3
Ballaghmor Class Oliver Townend	1st, 2nd, 3rd	2
Parklane Hawk William Fox-Pitt	1st, 3rd, 3rd	1
Lord Killinghurst Andrew Nicholson	3rd, 3rd, 3rd	0
Cavalier Crystal Harry Meade	3rd, 3rd, 3rd	0

No horse has ever turned three consecutive Burghley podiums into a first Burghley win. Lord Killinghurst is the only one who tried. He came back in 2007 and finished fourth.

Only one horse has ever made four. Ballaghmor Class won in 2017, was second in 2018, third in 2019 and won again in 2023. Nobody else has got there. A podium on Sunday and Cavalier Crystal is the second horse in sixty-five years to do it.

The reason this pair have not won Burghley has nothing to do with the cross-country and nothing to do with the show jumping. It is the first phase. In 2023 she added 5.2 and finished 4.4 behind Ballaghmor Class. In 2024 she added nothing at all and still finished 7.7 behind Graffalo. In 2025 she was 9.7 behind, after adding 2.8.

Meade also brings Et Hop Du Matz, ninth here last year and third at Kentucky in 2025 when he finished on his dressage score. He goes out on the cross-country before Cavalier Crystal, and that is the thing a one-horse rider cannot buy. Whatever the first round tells Meade about the lines, the ground and where to save time will feed straight into the mare's round later in the day.

This is what has changed. There is no horse in the field scoring in the low twenties. HSH Blake, Corimiro and Falco head the dressage form on 28.9, 29.1 and 29.3. Nobody is likely to have a huge margin on Friday evening.

Cavalier Crystal is still down the order. She is 15th. The difference is the size of the deficit. In 2024 and 2025 she gave the eventual winner 9.3 and 8.1 penalties in the dressage arena. On these numbers she gives the best horse in the field 3.2.

The Prediction Centre does not make Meade favourite. It makes him joint fourth. Corimiro tops the list on 20%, which is another way of saying the model expects him to lose four times out of five.

Horse	Win	Top 3
Corimiro Sarah Bullimore	20%	39%
Falco Tim Price	15%	33%
HSH Blake Caroline Pamukcu	13%	29%
Galileo Nieuwmoed David Doel	8%	28%
Cavalier Crystal Harry Meade	8%	25%
United 36 Tom Jackson	7%	23%
Treworra Katie Magee	6%	20%
Chilli Knight Gemma Stevens	5%	16%
Filao De Perle Benjamin Massie	4%	17%
Bling Laura Collett	3%	12%
Et Hop Du Matz Harry Meade	3%	12%

None of the Prediction Centre's top three has ever started Burghley before. Between them Corimiro, Falco and HSH Blake have thirteen five-star starts and not one of them here.

Corimiro Sarah Bullimore	Win 20%	Top 3 39%
5* starts 2	Best 5* finish 5th

Corimiro is the favourite on 20% and he has two five-star runs to his name. Fifth at Pau, tenth at Badminton, and clear inside the time cross-country on both occasions. Ten-year-olds have won Burghley twelve times but only once in the modern era. That was Ballaghmor Class in 2017. Sarah Bullimore first rode here exactly thirty years ago. With twelve starts and no podium, she will be hungry for a big result.

Falco Tim Price	Win 15%	Top 3 33%
5* starts 7	Best 5* finish 1st

Falco is seventeen. Two horses that age have won Burghley, Vanir Kamira in 2022 and Lenamore in 2010. Falco arrives on a show jumping clear streak of 17 rounds, the last of them at Aachen three weeks ago. The worry is the clock. He made the time at Pau in 2021 and Pratoni in 2022 and has not done so at five-star since. Aachen cost him 8.4, the slowest round of his five-star career, although team orders may account for that.

HSH Blake Caroline Pamukcu	Win 13%	Top 3 29%
5* starts 4	Best 5* finish 2nd

HSH Blake came out of Kentucky with both his and Caroline's first CCI5* podium. He is eleven, and there are few brighter prospects in the American string. Caroline Pamukcu reroutes him here after a fall at Aachen, for her own Burghley debut, and brings HSH Tolan King as well. After a championship that disappointed, this is where they look to prove it.

Twelve times in the top five. Six thirds. No win. World number one for twelve months with nothing in the cabinet. There is no horse in this field that makes you think nobody can beat it, and none of them will lead the dressage by eight penalties.

So, what do you think? Is this Harry Meade's five-star?