La Coruña 2025: Is Germany’s Loss Belgium’s Gain?
With Messi van’t Ruytershof ruled out of the European Championships, Germany’s win chances tumble — and Belgium rise to the top.
Germany was the team to beat. Now, following the withdrawal of their horse on form, the European Championship leaderboard looks very different. The question on everyone’s mind: is this the moment Belgium take control?
Messi Out, and Germany Feels It
Just days after retiring during the Longines League of Nations in Rotterdam, Janne Friederike Meyer-Zimmermann confirmed that Messi van’t Ruytershof will not be heading to La Coruña. In a heartfelt post, she wrote: “Messi is not right and needs a break… we’ll give him all the time he needs.”
From a performance perspective, the impact is immediate. Messi had the strongest recent form of any of Germany’s nominated combinations with 13 clears at five-star 160 level from 18 rounds (71% clear rate) in the last 12 months. With the loss of Messi, Germany’s win chance drops from 23% to 14%, and their podium chance from 53% to 41%. They still bring class in United Touch S (775) and potentially Iron Dames My Prins (760) but without Messi, the team loses its statistical spearhead.
Belgium Take the Lead
Belgium had already been lurking near the top of the projections. With all their key contenders in play, they now step forward as outright favourites. Their win probability rises to 20%, and their podium likelihood reaches 47%.
This isn’t just about Messi’s absence, it’s about Belgium’s consistency and strength in depth. Across their top four combinations, Belgium brings a blend of experienced championship performers and horses trending upward in form.
Belgium was the first nation to announce their definite team for the Jumping European Championships in La Coruna.
Ireland on the Rise Too
The domino effect of Messi’s withdrawal doesn’t stop with Belgium. Ireland quietly becomes one of the biggest movers, climbing to an 18% win chance, now just two percentage points behind Belgium.
With potential rising stars like ESI Rocky & Qonquest de Rigo who will likely be joined by seasoned competitors such as Darragh Kenny, Cian O’Connor and/or Denis Lynch, Ireland’s nominated squad holds both depth and promise. Their collective upward trend has them primed to capitalise if any other favourites falter.
Messi’s early exit from the European Championship story changes everything. The individual favourite is out and the team landscape is suddenly more open than ever. As team selections approach and La Coruña draws closer, the numbers are shifting, and so is the pressure.