Now we can be concerned

The week before Badminton was not the moment for hand-wringing about the future of eventing. Not when the sport's grandest stage was building towards something genuinely historic. Not when Lordships Graffalo was gliding effortlessly towards a third Badminton title, a feat no horse had ever achieved before.

That deserved the spotlight.

So now that the dust has settled, and now that the applause has eased slightly, there is something the sport probably needs to confront.

Badminton had 61 starters…

That is the lowest starting field in our records. Lower than the previous low of 64 in 2023. The immediate explanation was predictable enough.

"It's a World Championship year."

That line was repeated often and with great confidence. Riders are protecting horses. Championships matter. Therefore Badminton suffers.

Except… the evidence does not really cooperate.

In the most recent world championship year of 2022, Badminton had 83 starters. Healthy. The following year - the year we are expecting a bounce back to full health - it dropped by 19 competitors to just 64.

In the last four years (2023-2026), Badminton has had 273 starters.

In the four years before the Covid-19 interruption (2016-2019), it had 315 starters.

The four years before that (2012-2015), 330 starters.

We're declining. Whether that's good or bad is debatable. But what's worrying is that it is not by design - it is not part of a vision or plan. It is a consequence of confusion.

If it was a consequence of a world championship, then who is missing? Chipmunk, London, Dublin, Nickel? I don't think they're coming back folks.

Two peaks, one pathway

We have two peaks in our sport, but only one pathway. A true five-star (Badminton, Burghley) and a shortened championship (Olympics) - that's our split at the top. And if we put the horse first - we have two different types of horse.

I'm OK with two peaks. But then we need two pathways. Our current two star long, three star long and often four star long, are not appropriate pathways to Badminton and Burghley. They give misleading feedback as to what a great eventing equine athlete is or is not.

The training ground for many successful Gold Cup horses is the point-to-point circuit. They are closely linked. They identify talent, they drive commerce, they provide invaluable feedback to breeders as to whether or not they are creating the athlete for the pinnacle of the sport.

Eventing does not do this. We create a test that is unrelated to five-star. Horses will improve strength and technical ability for years, but we can gauge the galloping ability far sooner than we can see their dressage or jumping ceiling. But we do the opposite.

We don't test the engine until they are well into double figures. And we loose jump them over heights they will never jump in their competitive career when they are unbroken at three.

We cannot be surprised that we are running out of five-star horses.

You cannot force or fake what we do. It requires so much trust and partnership. It is visually spectacular but it is inherently reliant upon the highest levels of horsemanship.

It's worth protecting. It deserves a plan. It needs a pathway.

A solution?

New competition creates new opportunity. A future five-star series could be a commercial vehicle as well as a breeding ground for future champions and a lifeline that Badminton and Burghley desperately need in order to survive in ten years time.

Our fate is sealed for the foreseeable. We can't undo what will be the toughest test ever seen at five-star. But we can acknowledge it, address it and move forward with a plan.

A drop in five-star entries is a perfect opportunity for the future five-star series to potentially take place at these venues themselves. Identify the talent earlier. Bring back Little Badminton for the future stars.

If we don't give talent a platform, the talent becomes extinct. Younger horses need a stage, but they also need an appropriate test. Not a subjective show class. Not a two-star that serves the youth, amateurs and professionals equally.

We need to invent the relevant and appropriate talent test for future five-star youngsters. Feedback for breeders. A platform for producers.

Are there other warning signs?

If we compare 2014/2015 (two year periods iron out some variance and they consistently include a major championship), then yes, alarms should be sounding.

At five-star, starters fell from 744 (2014/2015) to 697 (2024/2025), a 6.3% decrease. Not huge.

At Badminton & Burghley only, starters fell from 303 to 265, a 12.5% decrease. That's more what we're feeling - noticeable difference.

But here is the kicker. At 2L, 3L and 4L combined, starters fell from 12,360 (2014/2015) to 7,803 (2024/2025), a 36.9% decrease!

That's our future five-star pipeline. We're only feeling the pinch right now - there's a strong right hook around the corner.

What we can't do is wait and then react. We have to look ahead, we have to understand. Then we define our vision, assess where we are now, and create a plan to close the gap.

Should we just shorten the sport?

For me, this is about identity and about the equine athlete. Too fast and long it becomes a thoroughbred sport. Too short and powerful, it becomes a show jumper sport. Eventing really is too skillful and too impressive to be a competition full of misfits that were bred for something else and just ended up on the Badminton trot-up strip.

Yes, I know, that does happen. But many of the greatest were purpose bred with a vision. La Biosthetique Sam was never intended to be a racehorse. Lordships Graffalo was never intended to be a Grand Prix show jumper. These champions were a product of a planned vision to breed an event horse.

Next steps…

Breeders are the scientists behind horse sports. Their eyes and brains design equine athletes. Their hands and hearts rear them.

Give them a vision and commit to it. Make them a promise that we will provide a stage, not just for the finished product - but for the younger talent too. We don't need many 'future five-star' competitions - but we need to support them with moderate prizemoney and we need to adapt the rules to suit a genuine five-star athlete.

The young event horse classes have to be reimagined. Subjectively judging a five-star horse in an arena doesn't work. They will have to gallop far and fast with balance and footwork - go and test that. The rest will be trained over time. We have to look under the hood and test the engine. Don't wait six years and then watch it either fall by the wayside, fall short on stamina, or just fall…

Then, bridge the gap. A two-star long is as related to five-star as I am to Taylor Swift. We can't do it overnight. As the numbers show, we've already seen huge decline in the breeding and production of genuine event horses. But if we don't start now, then we're leaving the inspirational level of the sport out on a limb.