Piazza di Siena 2026 by the Numbers
Ten nations, one hundred editions, and 12 weeks until the FEI Jumping World Championships in Aachen. The Nations Cup at Piazza di Siena has always mattered — but this Friday it carries more weight than usual.
Rome is the first five-star team competition on grass of 2026. Both Longines League of Nations legs so far were on sand, in Abu Dhabi and Ocala. The transition changes things, and every chef d'équipe in the start list knows the form lines drawn here feed directly into Aachen championship planning.
Belgium, Brazil, France, Germany, Great Britain, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, Sweden, and the USA line up for the Nations Cup. The defending Rome champions are in. The form team of the season is in. So is the highest-rated horse in the field, a Belgian who has gone clear in 100% of his starts this year over courses where the average clear rate was just 16%.
The race for the Nations Cup podium is open. One number, and one combination, could be the story of the week.
Stars of the Show
The top 10 Elo-rated combinations at CSIO5* Roma Piazza di Siena 2026, along with their career statistics at the CSI5* 1.60m level as a combination. These are the combinations the data says to watch all week.
| Horse & Rider | Rounds | Clears | Clear Rate | Avg. Clear % | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇧🇪 Impress-K van't Kattenheye Z Thibeau Spits |
54 | 25 | 46.3% | 31.5% | 770 |
| 🇸🇪 Alcapone des Carmille Peder Fredricson |
48 | 22 | 45.8% | 28.0% | 762 |
| 🇧🇷 Chevaux Primavera Imperio Egipcio Stephan de Freitas Barcha |
34 | 20 | 58.8% | 29.5% | 757 |
| 🇺🇸 Baloutinue Laura Kraut |
60 | 28 | 46.7% | 27.1% | 753 |
| 🇩🇪 Cloudio Richard Vogel |
22 | 10 | 45.5% | 28.3% | 753 |
| 🇩🇪 Gangster Montdesir Richard Vogel |
10 | 8 | 80.0% | 21.7% | 745 |
| 🇩🇪 Iron Dames Combella Sophie Hinners |
24 | 10 | 41.7% | 28.0% | 745 |
| 🇺🇸 Garant Callie Schott |
21 | 7 | 33.3% | 25.3% | 743 |
| 🇧🇷 Dinozo Imperio Egipcio Stephan de Freitas Barcha |
9 | 4 | 44.4% | 26.6% | 742 |
| 🇧🇷 QH Alfons Santo Antonio Yuri Mansur |
82 | 26 | 31.7% | 25.2% | 740 |
Career statistics at CSI5* / Major Championships 160+ in non jump-off rounds as a combination
The 2026 Nations Cup season so far
Three team competitions have been run before Rome. Germany have been the most consistent nation. Ireland have been dangerous at every start without winning a five-star leg. France took the biggest result of the year, the LLN opener in Abu Dhabi, with a squad since rotated for Rome.
| Event | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington CSIO4* — 1 Mar | USA (0 faults) | Ireland (4) | Canada (13) |
| LLN Abu Dhabi CSIO5* — 13 Feb | France (8 faults) | Germany (12) | Brazil (12) |
| LLN Ocala CSIO5* — 21 Mar | Germany (4 faults) | Ireland (8) | Belgium (12) |
After two LLN legs: Germany lead the standings (190pts), France second (155pts), Ireland third (150pts). Rome sits outside the LLN series, so squads look different. With the FEI Jumping World Championships 12 weeks away, every selection decision carries championship intent.
The Nations: who arrives with what
Ten nations confirmed for the Nations Cup on Friday. Average Elo by squad gives the quality on paper. The detail below tells the real story.
| Nation | Key riders | Avg Elo | Top horse Elo |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | Kraut, Little, Schott, Dean | 722 | 753 |
| Germany | Vogel, Hinners, Sprehe, Ahlmann | 717 | 753 |
| Belgium | Spits, Thomas, Conter, Philippaerts | 698 | 770 |
| Ireland | Lynch, Coyle, O'Connor, Wachman | 679 | 708 |
| France | Mallevaey, Sers, Moissonnier, Demonte | 672 | 714 |
| Sweden | Fredricson, McMahon, von Essen | 658 | 762 |
| Great Britain | Stockdale, Mendoza, Whitaker, Whiteway | 638 | 682 |
| Brazil | Mansur, de Freitas Barcha, Pessoa | 697 | 757 |
| Italy | Bucci, Camilli, Garofalo, Martinengo Marquet | 676 | 726 |
| Mexico | Azcarraga, Martinez Sommer, Pasquel, Hank Guerreiro | 624 | 702 |
USA: defending champions, deepest squad
The USA arrive as defending Rome Nations Cup champions and the strongest squad on paper by average Elo. The core has been consistent all season: Marilyn Little and La Contessa, Callie Schott and Garant, Laura Kraut as the anchor. They won cleanly at Wellington in March. The data backs the results up.
Laura Kraut and Baloutinue carry a career CAS of 11.76, the highest of any horse in the Rome field by a clear margin. That means this pair consistently outperforms expectations against the strongest competition. Not occasionally. Across 60 starts at the top level, with 28 clears and three wins. Kraut also brings Dorado 212 as a secondary ride.
Marilyn Little and La Contessa (Elo 739) has the second-highest clear rate of any horse with meaningful starts in this field at 66.7%. She does not win often at this level, but she goes clear, which is exactly what a Nations Cup team needs from its anchor. Little and La Contessa were part of the Wellington win in March. Callie Schott and Garant (Elo 743) gives the squad a reliable third string, with Natalie Dean providing further options at four.
Germany: the form team of 2026
Germany have been the most consistent nation of the year. They won the LLN in Ocala in March, with Richard Vogel riding Cloudio, the same horse he brings to Rome. They sit top of the LLN standings. Then last week Vogel won the Rolex Grand Prix at CSIO5* Aachen. He arrives in Rome as the form rider of the season, carrying Rolex Grand Slam live contender status, with 12 weeks until the World Championships on his home soil.
Vogel brings two horses. Cloudio (Elo 753, CR 45.5%) is the proven five-star performer, the horse that won in Ocala. Gangster Montdesir (Elo 745) has an 80% clear rate from ten starts at this level. Eight clears from ten, on courses where the average field clear rate was well under half. That is not a small sample fluke.
Sophie Hinners and Iron Dames Combella (Elo 745, CR 41.7%) give Germany three horses above 745 Elo, a formidable top three for Otto Becker. The fourth Nations Cup slot carries more uncertainty: Sprehe's Toys carries a low clear rate at this level, though Christian Ahlmann provides a more reliable alternative with Untouched LB (Elo 692).
Belgium: the number nobody is quite accounting for
Belgium failed to advance past round one in Abu Dhabi, then finished third in Ocala. Their season record looks mid-table. Their Rome squad does not.
Thibeau Spits and Impress-K van't Kattenheye Z is the highest-rated combination in the entire Rome field at Elo 770, a rating that equals the horse's career maximum. He arrives at his peak. The number that matters most is the 100% clear rate from five starts this year over courses with an average clear rate of 16%. This horse goes clear on the days most of the field does not. At a Nations Cup set at 1.60m, that is the profile that wins team competitions.
Gilles Thomas adds real strength with two credible horses: Luna van het Dennehof (Elo 728, CR 40.8%) and Chuck Marienshof Z (Elo 732, CR 50%). Two horses of that quality makes Thomas quietly one of the best-prepared riders in the draw. Emilie Conter and Portobella van de Fruitkorf (Elo 729) fills the fourth slot reliably.
Ireland: consistent, resilient, still searching for their first five-star win of 2026
Runners-up at Wellington, second in Ocala, third in the LLN standings. Ireland have been the most dependable Nations Cup nation of 2026 without standing on the top step of a five-star podium. They made history at Piazza di Siena in 2023 with their first ever win here. The squad travelling to Rome this week knows exactly what is needed.
No Irish horse in the Rome entry list sits above Elo 710. What Ireland offer instead is squad resilience: five riders, nine horses, and multiple combinations with positive CAS scores. Jordan Coyle and Chaccolino (Elo 704, CR 45%) is their strongest individual combination on the metrics. Tom Wachman and Do It Easy (Elo 708, CR 50%) brings excellent recent form from Wellington. Cian O'Connor has multiple horse options. Denis Lynch brings three horses to Rome, including Vistogrand, with 93 starts at this level, the most experienced horse in the entire field. In a Nations Cup, that depth and flexibility is a genuine strategic asset.
Sweden: one match-winner, everything aimed at Rome
Sweden are not in the LLN this year. They missed qualification for 2026, which makes Rome one of their primary targets of the season. They arrive with a genuine weapon. Peder Fredricson and Alcapone des Carmille (Elo 762, CAS +8.5, CR 45.8%) is the second-highest rated horse in the field and one of the most bankable big-occasion performers in the sport. Without LLN commitments pulling focus, Fredricson arrives at Piazza di Siena with everything aimed at this week.
Wilma McMahon and Cicci BJN (Elo 703) is a durable and experienced second combination with 79 starts at this level. In a Nations Cup where the top three scores count, Sweden need their middle combinations to hold firm around Fredricson, and McMahon gives them a credible platform.
Italy: the home crowd, and four riders who can deliver
Italy field the largest contingent in the competition as host nation. The Nations Cup team is built around four riders with genuine top-level experience: Piergiorgio Bucci, Emanuele Camilli, Giampiero Garofalo, and Giulia Martinengo Marquet.
Emanuele Camilli and Chacco's Girlstar (Elo 676, three wins from 25 starts at this level) is Italy's most in-form Nations Cup combination. Piergiorgio Bucci and Pallieter vd N.Ranch is the highest-rated Italian horse in the field at Elo 726. Giulia Martinengo Marquet and Delta del'Isle (Elo 698) is a consistent third. Italy last won the Nations Cup on home soil in 2018. The Piazza di Siena crowd will be rooting for the home nation.
The Rolex Grand Prix: five horses to watch on Sunday
The €500,000 Rolex Grand Prix on Sunday 31 May is the individual climax of the week. Five combinations stand clear from the entry data.
| Combination | Nation | Elo | CAS | CR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vogel & Gangster Montdesir | GER | 745 | +5.8 | 80% |
| Spits & Impress-K van't Kattenheye Z | BEL | 770 | +8.0 | 46.3% |
| Fredricson & Alcapone des Carmille | SWE | 762 | +8.5 | 45.8% |
| Kraut & Baloutinue | USA | 753 | +11.7 | 46.7% |
| de Freitas Barcha & Chevaux Primavera | BRA | 757 | +9.9 | 58.8% |
Stephan de Freitas Barcha and Chevaux Primavera Imperio Egipcio have the best raw clear rate of any horse with a meaningful sample in this field: 58.8% from 34 starts, CAS of 9.98. Brazil are in the Nations Cup this week. Watch where de Freitas Barcha deploys this horse come Sunday.
Gangster Montdesir has gone clear in eight of his ten starts at this level. That is the form number that makes Vogel so hard to oppose.
| Nations Cup | Grand Prix | Wildcard | |
|---|---|---|---|
| By Elo | USA | Spits & Impress-K | Belgium team |
| By Form | Germany | Vogel & Gangster | de Freitas Barcha |
| By CAS | USA | Kraut & Baloutinue | Ireland team |
The data and the form book agree on Germany and the USA. They disagree on everything else, which is exactly what makes this a very open Nations Cup.
The Elo says USA. The form book says Germany. The one number nobody is accounting for, a 100% clear rate over the hardest courses of 2026, says Belgium. Twelve weeks to Aachen. Every chef d'équipe in that arena on Friday has a decision that goes well beyond Rome. Who is on your Nations Cup podium this week?