Rotterdam and Paris In Focus
Rotterdam and Paris host five-star show jumping this weekend. Here is what the data suggests before the action begins.
Rotterdam and Paris host five-star show jumping this weekend. Here is what the data suggests before the action begins.
Rotterdam's 88-combination field is led by 16 Dutch-registered riders, followed by nine from Germany and eight from Italy. The schedule runs across two days: the Longines League of Nations on Friday, and the Huawei Prize Grand Prix on Sunday.
The League of Nations format puts team depth under pressure as much as individual quality. Nations field combinations across the class, and the team standings reward consistency throughout the squad. Several of the most interesting combinations from a data perspective sit outside the very top of the Elo rankings, which makes the nation-by-nation picture worth examining closely.
Ben Maher and Point Break lead the field on Elo at 790, with one win and three podiums from seven classifications and a clear rate of 50% against a 28% field average. Great Britain's depth across the squad will also be a factor in the team competition.
Germany brings Richard Vogel and Cloudio (Elo 761), who carry the deepest podium record in the Rotterdam field: six podiums and two wins from 15 classifications, with a 47% clear rate against a 26% field average. Willem Greve and Grandorado TN N.O.P. (Elo 758, three wins and four podiums from 15 classifications) add further weight to the German entries. Belgium's Gregory Wathelet brings Bond Jamesbond de Hay (Elo 771), one win and four podiums from 10 classifications with a 50% clear rate against a 35% field average.
Marilyn Little and La Contessa (Elo 747, USA) bring the highest clear rate of any combination in the Rotterdam field among horses with more than three classifications at this level: 67% across 10 classifications, against a field average of 26%. Two podiums from that record confirm the form has produced results.
| Horse | Rider | Elo | Clear % | Field Avg | Wins | Podiums |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point Break | Ben Maher | 790 | 50% | 28% | 1 | 3 |
| Bond Jamesbond de Hay | Gregory Wathelet | 771 | 50% | 35% | 1 | 4 |
| Dorette Old | Marlon Modolo Zanotelli | 763 | 20% | 18% | 0 | 0 |
| Cloudio | Richard Vogel | 761 | 47% | 26% | 2 | 6 |
| Grandorado TN N.O.P. | Willem Greve | 758 | 35% | 23% | 3 | 4 |
| La Contessa | Marilyn Little | 747 | 67% | 26% | 0 | 2 |
| Caracole de la Roque | Karl Cook | 730 | 56% | 28% | 3 | 4 |
| Sherlock | Harry Charles | 718 | 54% | 29% | 1 | 3 |
Sunday's Grand Prix brings the individual competition to a head. Maher and Point Break head the Elo standings, with Vogel, Greve and Wathelet among those with the form to feature. Marilyn Little and La Contessa are worth tracking; bringing the highest clear rate of any combination in the field with more than three classifications, their jumping record gives them a strong basis to contend wherever the course rides hard.
The Paris field of 78 combinations is highlighted by the LGCT Grand Prix of Paris on Saturday. France leads the entries with 16 riders, followed by 12 from Belgium and eight from Germany.
King Edward sits at the top of the Paris Elo table at 800, the highest-rated horse in either field this weekend, with a peak of 821. Von Eckermann and King Edward have three starts at 5-star and major championship level in the past 12 months, competing on courses where the average clear rate was 17%. Paris will be one of the most watched appearances of the year for this combination.
Scott Brash brings two horses to Paris that make him the most influential individual in the field. Hello Jefferson (Elo 754) carries nine podiums and six wins from 18 classifications at this level, with a 57% clear rate against a 28% field average. Hello Chadora Lady (Elo 765) adds three wins and four podiums from 14 classifications. With both horses capable of featuring in the result, Brash has more routes to the podium than anyone else in the draw.
Peder Fredricson and Alcapone des Carmille (Elo 759) have the most appearances of any combination in the Paris field at this level: 21 classifications. A 58% clear rate against a 28% field average, six podiums and two wins makes this the most consistent combination in the Paris data by volume and return.
Sophie Hinners brings two horses to Paris. Iron Dames My Prins (Elo 763) has cleared 67% of rounds at this level against a 35% field average across five classifications, while Iron Dames Combella (Elo 757) adds a podium from 15 classifications.
| Horse | Rider | Elo | Clear % | Field Avg | Wins | Podiums |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Edward | Henrik von Eckermann | 800 | 0% | 17% | 0 | 0 |
| Hello Chadora Lady | Scott Brash | 765 | 38% | 28% | 3 | 4 |
| Iron Dames My Prins | Sophie Hinners | 763 | 67% | 35% | 0 | 1 |
| Alcapone des Carmille | Peder Fredricson | 759 | 58% | 28% | 2 | 6 |
| Iron Dames Combella | Sophie Hinners | 757 | 44% | 28% | 0 | 1 |
| Hello Jefferson | Scott Brash | 754 | 57% | 28% | 6 | 9 |
| Toys | Jorne Sprehe | 751 | 27% | 22% | 0 | 4 |
| EIC Up Too Jacco Blue | Max Kuhner | 751 | 40% | 27% | 2 | 3 |
Rotterdam puts team depth and individual form in the same frame across Friday and Sunday, with Maher and Point Break the data leaders and La Contessa's clear rate making her worth tracking. In Paris, Brash arrives with two of the strongest records in the field and von Eckermann brings the highest Elo number in either competition. With the World Championships in Aachen on the horizon, this weekend will offer a sharp indication of where the top combinations stand.
EquiRatings Preview — All Elo ratings and statistics current to the date of publication. All numbers based on appearances at the CSI5* / major championship 160+ level in the past 12 months.