Saving Five-Star - Part I

We identified a problem and it resonated. Now it's time to talk solutions. There are three actions that I think can make meaningful change. The first two will spark controversy and divide opinion - but progress often does. Here is Part I.

In my article post Badminton (NOW we can be concerned) I showed some concerning number decline. Not so bad at five-star (down 6.3%), not frightening yet at Badminton and Burghley (down 12.5%), but very concerning at 2L, 3L and 4L (down 36.9% from ten years ago).

My first two suggested solutions both impact PHASE INFLUENCE - the most important number that we should be measuring for the future of our sports. I say sports, plural, because short format is holding steady on numbers, only long is in major decline.

The irony is that phase influence is less weighted towards cross-country in long formats than it is in short formats. It is tougher to make the time in a 2*S than a 2*L, therefore the leaderboard sees more cross-country influence at short format than it does at long format at each level.

Your win and your why must align

The why behind eventing, which must have something to do with cross-country, must align with what it takes to win. At 2*L, dressage accounts for 49% of the phase influence (T25 method) while cross-country is only 16%. It doesn't make sense.

The why behind eventing is that we train cross-country horses to perform a dressage test, and yet to win it is better to scrub a dressage horse around a cross-country course.

THAT is why five-star is under threat and it is why I believe that our sport is confused. If we lose the 'why' we lose the love, the passion and the loyalty.

Winning does matter. It drives the commercial level of the sport. And there we have the phrase that is making a phenomenal equine athlete extinct…

"There's a commercial horse, and there's a five-star horse."

As long as this phrase exits our five-star sport will continue to decline in horsepower. Imagine a jump racing having the phrase "there's a Gold Cup horse and then there's a commercial horse". Commercial wins. The other dies. And the commercial horse is simply the horse that is competitive. Adjust what it takes to win and give the equine athlete you want to create a chance to thrive within the scoring system.

Cross-country is our unique phase, so make it matter and ensure the athletes are suited to this phase. If they don't, we are less likely to want to enter long format events (because horses aren't designed for it), we are going to see injury rates increase, and we are going to see a decline in the number of horses suited to five-star.

So, solution time.

The Zone B solution

We used to have a 'safe speed' phase. We had brush fences which didn't cause rotational falls and we tested a fifth gear of event horses. Then, we went cross-country over fixed obstacles, but in a lower gear.

Now, the event horse is asked for top gear over the fixed obstacles. We have slower horses (72% TB blood at Badminton 2013, 56% TB blood at Badminton 2023 a decade later) and we see visible evidence of tired horses over the more hazardous obstacles.

The solution is so simple and makes so much sense. It promotes a more natural cross-country horse. It brings back better fitness training and better 'course management' from riders - starting in a rhythm and conserving energy. It brings back a fun feeling for horse and rider and it does it safely.

As you cross the finish line of Zone A your Zone B begins. It is a continuous flow. You must make the optimum time for Zone A, but there is no advantage to being faster than the optimum - you just waste energy for Zone B. Therefore, we have a scoring system that teaches riders to ride in a rhythm and conserve energy.

Zone B has a 10-15% increase in the metres per minute baseline speed. You move from 4th gear to 5th gear. This is what good five-star horses can do. It used to be what all good event horses could do. They were fit and they had a fifth gear.

Zone B only needs to be 3 minutes. It might only have 7/8 brush obstacles. It effectively mirrors the old chase phase (Phase B). It comes at the end to reduce the risk of tired falls on fixed and upright obstacles. At two-star, you could have 6.5mins of normal, skillful and intense cross-country at 520mpm, then 3 mins of open, galloping and safe steeplechase at 580mpm.

These horses will have to gallop for 11.5mins when they are 10 and older. The courses will be big, intense and technical. They will need to reach 750-800mpm for parts of the course. If they can't do 9.5mins at smaller, shorter and slower pace when they are 6/7 - they aren't going to make it at five-star. This isn't radical, it's actually just practical. We have to make 2* relevant for 5* for the future five-star horses.

Like the old Phase B, the purpose of Zone B is not penalties. It is fun and enjoyment for horse and rider. It is part of the formula to ensure that we have talented equine athletes and we educate riders about fitness and how to ride a longer course. I think it will bring back a lot of joy to a lot of people. It's not for everyone and it's not for every horse - it's not meant to be. It's just for people who want to breed, produce, train and compete a cross-country horse.

The backlash

"This is far too much and far too soon for event horses."

Is it really? Look at the horses with 7 Badminton completions - the likes of Over To You and Lenamore. They grew up in an era when 6-year-olds did roads and tracks, steeplechase (620-690mpm) and longer cross-country courses. We can only save five-star if we create a test that promote the horses that can and highlights the horses that can't.

The sport is overflowing with horses that can't gallop around Badminton and Burghley. What's more, these are the horses that are winning at low levels and are the most commercially valuable. We have to create a five-star funnel, a future five-star series, that gives super equine athletes a platform to show what they can do well as youngsters. The other horses still have an outlet - but the five-star horses win the prizemoney and we need to help them win more of it when they are younger.

The confusion is killing us. Our 'why' conflicting with our 'win' doesn't just make a great horse extinct - it creates an empty feeling for members and participants. If we love eventing, we don't want to enter a competition and have a very influential dressage test followed by a very uninfluential cross-country test.

We don't have to enforce this. Just introduce it and support it.

The current rules stay as they are. The pathway is fine for the Olympic horse and Olympic format. Paris was open and competitive - that's the global and scalable level of the sport. But I don't think it's the true inspiration level.

Golf has majors, tennis has Grandslams, eventing has true five-stars. They are all a cut above the Olympics. They are all owned by their sport and not a guest at someone else's party. Of course we want and need that invitation to keep lower levels of the sport global, but let's not put all our eggs in that basket and let's also not lose a great athlete that thrives around the true five-stars.

So this isn't about changing the rules. It is about adding something new. A pathway to five-star. All we need is enough people to want it and a few people to make it happen. It will need the support of events like Kentucky, Badminton and Burghley in order to create the prestige. Owners need to want the gallopers in the sport and we need to give them something sooner than five-star. It's too long a wait with no platform to thrive and showcase their talent along the way.

If 5 venues worldwide ran this new format at 2* and 3* we could change the game. Fifty horses per year becomes fifty potential 10/11/12/13/14/15/16 year-olds down the line. But we might get more. There might be breeders out there, owners out there, riders out there who would enjoy a 'chase phase' again - seeing natural gallopers putting their strengths and talent on display.

It's OK to try and it's OK to learn. We took away a safe speed test. We need to bring it back and incorporate it in a new, innovative and responsible way.

Have a think. Have a discussion. Comment and share so we can find actionable progress. Have a vote below so we get a feel of whether this could work or not.

I won't be offended by the criticism. The sport will need your minds and more minds to tweak and change things. But we have to start the brainstorm - we can't be afraid to sound silly or 'be wrong'. We have to consider things that will create commotion, because when the dust settles we might have landed somewhere further forward.

Thanks for reading this long article that modern algorithms will hate. Part II and Part III will follow in the coming days. But one step at a time.