Shifting tides after Round 1 in Omaha: who’s up & who’s down in our Prediction Centre?
How has the competition at the FEI World Cup Finals in Omaha changed after the day one? And what can we expect going forward?
The first round of the Longines FEI World Cup Finals in Omaha has had us all by the edge of our seats. While our favourites going into the competition have only enforced their front-runner position, other surprising performances have shaken up the field.
Favourites enforcing their position
At the start of the competition, EquiRatings Jumping Prediction Centre had Henrik von Eckermann and King Edward down as the favourites to become the new World Cup Champions with a win chance of 12%. After a thrilling performance last night where the pair fulfilled expectations and took the lead in the championship, their win chances have increased by 18%. They are now the outright favourites to claim victory in the World Cup Finals this year with a 30% chance of taking home the gold. Another factor that plays in their favour is that, since 2010, 55% of FEI World Cup winners were leading after day one of the Final, including the last 4 winners.
The two highest-rated horses on our Elo rating currently sport the highest win chances in the Longines FEI World Cup Finals. After a fabulous clear round which put them in third position in the competition, Daniel Deusser and Scuderia 1918 Tobago Z’s win chances shot up by 10% going from 11% to 21%. The rivalry between King Edward and Scuderia 1918 Tobago therefore continues...
Another combination whose win chance has seen a strong rise thanks to an outstanding performance yesterday is Scott Brash and Hello Jefferson. The pair entered the Longines FEI World Cup Finals with a 4% chance to win, but after producing a tremendous round yesterday, which puts them in second position, they have an 11% chance of becoming our new World Cup Champions.
Top contenders struggling to find form
We have also watched some big names see their win chances plummet. The reigning World Cup Champion Martin Fuchs, this time riding Leone Jei, entered the competition with an 8% chance to win, the fourth highest in the field. After a disappointing first round in which two poles hit the sand, their win chances have dropped by 7%.
Fuchs isn’t the only rider who saw their chances dwindle when two fences came tumbling down. Daniel Coyle had chosen Legacy for his shot at the title this year and the pair entered the competition with a 5% win chance, the fifth highest in the field. Unfortunately with last night’s performance, their chance to win this year’s World Cup Finals has dropped below 1%.
To see predictions for the entire field, visit the EquiRatings Jumping Prediction Centre.