Sizing Up the Teams for the First U25 Eventing World Championships

Millstreet hosts the inaugural FEI Eventing World Championship for U25s from 22 to 26 July, run at the CCI4*-S level. The class fills the gap between Young Rider level and Senior competition and in just a few weeks, it will hand out a first team title. So who arrives with the strongest hand?

Great Britain. We have simulated the Championship on the currently entered combinations, and the model makes them the team to beat with a 43% chance of gold, ahead of Germany on 28% and the USA on 18%. What follows is how each phase builds that picture. Treat it as a starting position, not the final grid, since this is based off all nominated entries.

The simulation picks each nation’s best four combinations based on a number of factors (Elo, 6RA, XCJ10 etc.) and runs the Championship. The team win and podium chances are below.

Team Win Chance

#	Nation	Win	Podium
1	Great Britain	43%	83%
2	Germany	28%	77%
3	USA	18%	68%
4	France	10%	48%
5	Ireland	2%	23%
6	Sweden	0%	2%
7	Italy	0%	0%

Pre-competition Prediction Centre. Sweden and Italy field three entered riders each; the rest field four.

Britain finish on the podium in more than four times out of five. Germany sit a length back with an almost identical podium reach, and the gap on the win line is thin. The USA are the third force, 18% to win but 68% to podium. Below the top three the numbers fall away fast.

The win chances rest on strength in depth. Average each nation’s best four entered combinations and the picture sharpens. On peak quality there is little between the top three. The separation comes on Elo, where Britain’s 634 sits clear of Germany’s 588 and the USA’s 570. Consistent rating across four horses, not one big number, is why the model likes them.

Look across the 6RA column above and one thing stands out: the dressage. None of the teams have an average dressage of less than 32. In fact, across all 63 entered combinations, only three 6RA's sit under 30:

• Libussa Lubbeke (GER) & Caramia FRH at 29.1
• Clara Cazeneuve (FRA) & Dolce Gabana at 29.0
• Isabella von Roeder (GER) & Bob at 29.7

Everyone else is likely to start in the 30s, and the field average is 35.2. This is a young field, and it shows on the flat. When the whole field starts in the 30s, no one can buy a big lead on the flat. Small dressage margins get erased by a single rail or a few seconds cross-country. 

If the first phase is close, the venue will have a huge affect on the placings. Across every CCI4*-S run at Millstreet since 2015, the show jumping clear rate is 36%, and it has tightened lately: 24% in 2023, 28% in 2025, 30% this spring. Fewer than four in ten combinations will leave the poles.

The cross country is fairer with a 73% jumping clear rate all-time. What matters more is the time: across the last two runnings (2025 and the earlier 2026 fixture) not a single rider made the optimum time. If that holds again, it swings the advantage to the fast horses.

Britain go in as the team to beat, carried by depth, Elo and the cleanest jumping profile in the field, which will be needed when it's tight after the first phase. Germany are the closest challenger, and the USA have the peak quality (based on HPR) to have a serious performance.

Withonly  three horses in 63 breaking 30 on the flat, and a venue where the time is near impossible, the race for the first U25 world team title is gearing up.

This is the pre-competition picture on the full entry list. Combinations will drop and teams will firm up. We will run the model again when the final line-ups are confirmed.