The Longines FEI World Cup of Gothenburg marks the last chance for riders to secure qualification for the World Cup Finals in Basel. The pressure is at its peak, and the Scandinavium Arena will be the stage for a dramatic fight where every point counts. Some riders arrive already assured of their place in Basel, while others must deliver a top performance today to keep their World Cup dreams alive.

The Favourites

Steve Guerdat & Dynamix de Belheme

• Elo: 775
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 58%

Steve Guerdat enters as the favourite with a 15% win chance. The reigning European Champions & Olympic Silver medalists have a strong record at this level and are chasing the last World Cup points to ensure qualification for World Cup Finals on home soil in Basel. However, he has been struggling with back trouble this week, which may impact his approach to the competition.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Currently on 40 points, Steve will likely need at least 2 more points to be sure of a spot in Basel, which translates to a 14th place finish or higher.

Maikel van der Vleuten & Beauville Z

• Elo: 794
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 56%

Maikel van der Vleuten arrives in Gothenburg with a 13% win chance. Beauville Z N.O.P. currently sits on a career-high Elo rating of 794, one of the Top 5 highest Elo ratings ever recorded. Like Guerdat, he is relatively safe for Basel but would benefit from at least two more points to be certain of qualification.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Currently on 40 points, Maikel will likely need at least 2 more points to be sure of a spot in Basel, which translates to a 14th place finish or higher.

Harrie Smolders & Monaco

• Elo: 770
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 47%

Entering on a 10% win chance, Harrie Smolders and Monaco are among the most experienced pairs in the field. Their recent success includes a major victory in the Rolex Grand Prix of Geneva. Harrie talked about Monaco in yesterday’s pre-competition World Cup press conference: “I didn’t want to overuse him this winter, but this weekend, he’s ready to step in." This pair have finished second in two consecutive World Cup Finals in 2022 and 2023, but are still in need of a couple of World Cup points to qualify for the 2025 Finals.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Currently on 31 points, Harrie will likely need at least 11 more points to be sure of a spot in Basel, which translates to a 6th place finish or higher.

Hopes for the Home Nations

Peder Fredricson & Catch Me Not S

• Elo: 743
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 44%

Peder Fredricson will have the full support of the Swedish crowd as he attempts to keep the World Cup victory at home. At 19 years old, Catch Me Not S is the oldest and most experienced horse in the field. This pair has proven themselves in Gothenburg before, finishing third in this World Cup class last year and third in the 2019 World Cup Finals at this venue. To qualify for Basel, Fredricson will likely need to win or finish second at least.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Currently on 24 points, Peder will likely need at least 18 more points to be sure of a spot in Basel, which translates to a win.

Henrik von Eckermann & Toveks Azaria Dinero

• Elo: 699
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 36%

Henrik von Eckermann is no stranger to success in Gothenburg, having won this World Cup twice before, in 2017 and 2018, with Toveks Mary Lou. Coming off a win last night with Iliana, he will now compete with Toveks Azaria Dinero. As the defending World Cup Champion, von Eckermann is already qualified for Basel, meaning he is not under pressure for points but will be looking to deliver a strong performance in front of his home crowd.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Henrik is the defending World Cup champion, so is automatically qualified for the World Cup Finals in Basel

The Challengers

Denis Lynch & Vistogrand

• Elo: 757
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 41%

Denis & Vistogrand have been one of the most in-form combinations in 2025, producing a 71% clear rate at five-star 160 this season. He comes into Gothenburg needing the last World Cup points required for Basel. His recent form includes a double-clear performance in the Longines League of Nations in Abu Dhabi, helping Ireland secure victory last weekend.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Currently on 35 points, Denis will likely need at least 7 more points to be sure of a spot in Basel, which translates to a 10th place finish or higher.

Kim Emmen & Imagine

• Elo: 742
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 38%

Kim Emmen and Imagine arrive in Gothenburg with a 4% win chance and a clear objective: securing enough points for Basel qualification. Their recent performances have been promising, finishing eighth in the Bordeaux World Cup and jumping double clear in Thursday’s 150 jump-off class to place fourth.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Currently on 34 points, Kim will likely need at least 8 more points to be sure of a spot in Basel, which translates to a 9th place finish or higher.

Edouard Schmitz & Gamin van ‘t Naastveldhof

• Elo: 621
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 21%

With Basel being a home World Cup Final, Edouard Schmitz is extra motivated to deliver a top performance. He still needs a few more points to qualify and while reflecting on his season, Schmitz admitted that things had not gone as smoothly as he had hoped. "I started the season in the best way possible with second place in Oslo, but then I had a long series of World Cups with just one down. It just kept happening." Now, with his back against the wall, he will need one of his best performances to secure his place in Basel.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Currently on 33 points, Edouard will likely need at least 7 more points to be sure of a spot in Basel, which translates to a 8th place finish or higher.

One Last Chance – Who Will Step Up?

The Scandinavium Arena has been home to some of the most dramatic World Cup battles in history. This Sunday, it all comes down to the final round.

One thing is certain: this weekend, Gothenburg decides.