The Road to Basel: The Riders on the Brink as Gothenburg Decides the Final 18

After 13 intense qualifiers, the battle for the last remaining tickets to the FEI Jumping World Cup™ Final is coming to a dramatic close at the Gothenburg Horse Show in the legendary Scandinavium Arena. Only the top 18 riders in the Western European League standings will qualify for Basel, but with just one event left, the leaderboard is still in flux.

The Final Countdown: What’s at Stake in Gothenburg?

A handful of riders can relax, their qualification guaranteed. Others are walking a tightrope, knowing that a single rail down could be the difference between competing in Basel or staying home. And then there are those who need nothing short of a spectacular performance to make a last-minute leap into the Top 18.

Here’s how the standings look heading into Gothenburg and what each rider needs to secure their place.

Safe for Basel: Already Qualified and Ready for the Final

A number of athletes need not to worry about their qualification for the World Cup Finals in Basel and are sure of their spot. League leader, Kevin Staut, while present at the Gothenburg Horse Show, does not need to worry about chasing points, as he is already sure of his place in the Finals after having collected 70 points throughout the ‘24-’25 Western European League. As a matter of fact, the current Top 14 ranked riders in the FEI Western European World Cup standings can be relatively sure of their qualification for Basel.

The current #14 ranked rider in that list is the German phenomenon, Richard Vogel, who in the saddle of his incredible stallion, United Touch S, won two World Cup qualifiers in Stuttgart and Lyon. As he won’t be competing in Gothenburg this weekend, he will complete his ‘24-’25 World Cup campaign on 42 points. While he can be almost sure of his spot in the Finals in Basel, there is a very small chance those 42 points would not suffice.

What Would Need to Happen for Richard Vogel Not to Qualify for Basel?

For Richard Vogel not to qualify for the World Cup Finals in Basel, at least five of the following eight scenarios would need to occur in Sunday’s World Cup in Gothenburg:

• Peder Fredricson wins
• Mario Stevens finishes on the podium
• Harrie Smolders finishes 5th or higher
• Edouard Schmitz finishes 7th or higher
• Kim Emmen finishes 8th or higher
• Denis Lynch finishes 9th or higher
• Steve Guerdat finishes 14th or higher
• Maikel van der Vleuten finishes 14th or higher

According to the brains behind the EquiRatings Predictive Analysis, the chances of Richard Vogel not qualifying for the 2025 World Cup Finals in Basel lies between 5%-10%.

On the Edge: Riders Fighting to Hold Their Spot

A total of 6 riders are competing in Gothenburg with a goal to secure their ticket to the 2025 Basel World Cup Finals.

Holding Steady: Staying in the Top 18

While both Maikel van der Vleuten (#15) and Steve Guerdat (#17) are currently in the safe zone on 40 points, they could do with a couple more points to ensure their spot in Basel. Both riders come in with strong irons in the fire. 

Maikel’s Beauville Z N.O.P. is currently the second-highest rated horse in the world and in the form of his life, reaching a career-high Elo rating of 794, one of the Top 5 highest Elo ratings ever recorded. He is also the reigning Olympic Individual Bronze medalist. 

Steve comes in on another individual Olympic medalist. On Dynamix de Belheme, he claimed Silver in Paris and will try to score some additional World Cup points to be able to compete in World Cup Finals on home soil.

Last Call for Basel: Who Can Break into the Top 18?

No rider has had quite the start to 2025 as Denis Lynch. Fresh off a double clear to help Team Ireland secure victory in the first Longines League of Nations in Abu Dhabi on Vistogrand, the pair comes to Gothenburg to try and claim a spot in the Finals. Currently ranked just outside the qualification zone in 19th place on 35 points. The current cut-off for the Finals lies at 37 points and will likely end up around the 42 point-mark. To get to that threshold, Denis would need 7 additional World Cup points, which translates to finishing in 10th place or higher in Sunday’s World Cup.

Currently in 20th place on 34 points, Kim Emmen comes to Gothenburg with a real fighting chance at qualification for Basel. To get to the projected 42-point qualification threshold, Kim would need to finish 9th or higher in the Gothenburg World Cup. She has entered her Olympic partner, Imagine, with whom she had finished 6th in last year’s Gothenburg World Cup.

Just like Steve Guerdat, Edouard Schmitz is also still vying for a place to compete in World Cup Finals in his home country. He is in need of 9 World Cup points to reach the projected 40-point threshold, which translates to a 8th place finish or higher on Sunday.

To get to his eighth World Cup Finals, Harrie Smolders will likely need at least 11 more points. He currently sits in 22nd place on the World Cup standings and would likely need an 6th place or higher in Sunday’s World Cup. He brings an exciting string of horses to the table including his Geneva Grand Prix winner, Monaco.

Do or Die: Riders Who Must Deliver in Gothenburg

Four additional riders are currently well outside the qualification zone, but with a podium performance in Sunday’s World Cup of Gothenburg could claim a spot in the World Cup Finals in Basel.

Mario Stevens has already collected 29 World Cup points and stands in 26th position in the standings. A podium position would give the German at least 15 more points, he could boost himself up the standings and qualify for the Finals.

As Yuri Mansur represents Brazil, he will not take a spot of the 18 qualified riders from the Western European League, but if he matches the amount of points of the lowest qualified rider in this league, he could enter the Finals as an extra. To get to the projected 42 point threshold, he would need to finish second or higher in Sunday’s World Cup.

The chances for Gothenburg home crowd are in the very capable hands of Peder Fredricson. He currently stands in 30th place in the World Cup standings on 24 points. To qualify for the Finals, the Swedish star would need to put in a huge performance in Sunday’s World Cup and take the win to add 20 World Cup points to his tally. In Catch Me Not S, he has a very experienced partner on his hands who knows how to perform in the Scandinavium Arena. The pair finished third in the World Cup here last year and also claimed bronze in the 2019 World Cup Finals held in Gothenburg. 

A win on Sunday could also bring Geraldine Straumann to her first World Cup Finals. So far, she has collected 22 World Cup points and the 20 points for the victory could give her enough points to qualify for Basel.

With the final qualification spots on the line, Gothenburg promises to be a heart-pounding battle. Some riders will secure their dream of competing at World Cup Finals, while others will leave Sweden devastated, knowing they came up just short.

As we head into one of the most critical events of the FEI World Cup season, one thing is certain:

It’s all or nothing in Gothenburg.