The thrills & spills of Omaha Day 2 shake up our Prediction Centre
Drama has unfolded on Day 2 of the FEI World Cup Finals in Omaha which has completely reorganised the leaderboard as well as our Prediction Centre. Who’s up, who’s down and who is out of the running for the gold?
The second round of the Longines FEI World Cup Finals had fans and experts alike sitting on the edge of their seats. A few key movers are discussed here. To see the lowdown on each competitor, see our Day 3 Form Guide.
Top combinations trip up in Round 2
SCUDERIA 1918 TOBAGO Z entered on an Elo of 793 but is one of only two horses in history to have ever achieved an Elo over 800, an accomplishment realised earlier this year. It was however not to be this weekend for Daniel Deusser and the chestnut stallion. Despite coming out of Day 1 in third place with a win chance of 21%, the pair did not manage to complete the course on the second day which took them out of the running for further placings.
Henrik von Eckermann and KING EDWARD need no introduction. The reigning World Champions travelled to Omaha with one goal and that was to add a gold medal World Cup Finals to their collection. It was all going according to plan for the pair as they came into the second round as leaders with a win chance of 30%. That was until one pole hit the sand. A pole that kept them out of the jump-off, dropped them down to third place on the leaderboard and knocked their win chance by 5%.
Another pair we had expected to see in the jump-off was Harrie Smolders and MONACO N.O.P. They too see their win chances decrease after knocking a rail in the second round. They currently stand in joint seventh place, five penalties behind the leaders and have seen their win chance drop from 8% to 5%.
The underdogs put their best foot forward to climb the ranks
While the leading combinations made their mistakes, it left the competition wide open for the underdogs to step up. And step up they did. Coming into the World Cup Finals on a win chance of less than 1%, Richard Vogel and the inexperienced UNITED TOUCH S stunned the crowd with a foot-perfect clear, followed by an electrifying demonstration in the jump-off to take the win. They now rank fourth in the overall standings going into the final day and have seen their win chance increase to 5%.
We also see two new leaders going into Saturday’s final. Andreas Schou and his DARC DE LUX travelled to Omaha on a win chance of 4%, but thanks to a great round on Day 1 and a third place finish on Day 2 have seen the strongest increase in win chance. They now tie with Henrik von Eckermann and King Edward on a win chance of 25%.
Two days into this championship, Pius Schwizer and VANCOUVER DE LANLORE still maintain a 100% clear rate at 5* 160. Adding the two clean rounds this pair has produced here in Omaha to their record, they now have jumped 6 clears out of 6 five-star 160 classes in 2023. Their performance makes them joint leaders of the World Cup Finals going into the final day with a win chance of 17%, 16% higher than what they started the week on.
Lots of changes to the leaderboard and the Jumping Prediction Centre after Day 2 and with two rounds of jumping left, the competition is still open. The Top 6 combinations on the overall standings are all within one rail of each other which leaves room for changes. However, from a historical point of view, no rider has managed to go on and win the World Cup Finals coming into the final day ranking lower than fourth in the overall standings. Could that change this year?
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Click here to see all the EquiRatings predictions for the final day.