The Top Five – Who Wins & What You Need To Know

With the help of EquiRatings Prediction Centre, we analyse the top contenders and their chances of clinching the victory at Badminton 2023.

By Diarm Byrne / @diarmbyrne

May 7, 2023

The prestigious Badminton Horse Trials is set for an exhilarating showdown as the world's top eventing pairs vie for victory. We discuss the Top Five going into tomorrow’s showjumping stage, each with their own unique strengths and accomplishments. These exceptional duos promise a fierce competition that will keep spectators on the edge of their seats.


Post Xc Prediction Centre Graphic


Ros Canter & Lordships Graffalo: Will they be Making History?

With a staggering win chance of 98% and an EquiRatings Elo Rating of 797, Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo are the favorites to secure the title. Having jumped clear in both their previous CCI5* rounds at Badminton 2022 and Pratoni 2022, the duo could become the first of the last four female World Champions (Zara Tindall, Sandra Auffarth, Ros Canter, and Yasmin Ingham) to win a five-star event following their world championship victory, despite the historical rarity of dressage leaders taking the win. Only twice since 2010 has the dressage leader at Badminton gone on to take the win: Michael Jung did so in 2016 on La Biostethique-Sam and last year, when Laura Collett took the win on London 52. 

Austin O’Connor & Colorado Blue: Aiming for an Irish Milestone

Although their win chance is a slim 2%, Austin O’Connor and Colorado Blue boast a podium chance of 90% and are the top-rated Irish combination with an EquiRatings Elo Rating of 690. While a win would end a 58-year Irish drought at Badminton, a podium finish would still mark a significant achievement for the nation, achieving the highest Irish finish in a CCI5* and securing the first podium since Jessica Harrington and Amoy in 1983.
Colorado Blue has two rails in hand to stay on the podium tomorrow, which could beat Austin’s best finish at Badminton when he finished fourth in 1999.

Oliver Townend & Ballaghmor Class: A Streak of Top Finishes

Oliver Townend and Ballaghmor Class, with an impressive EquiRatings Elo Rating of 819, have a 79% podium chance. With nine previous CCI5* runs and eight top 5 finishes, another top 5 finish would place Ballaghmor Class second in the list of all-time top 5 finishes. A pair to watch closely, as just once have they managed to keep all the rails up on the final day at this level. Yet, with one rail in hand over Tim Price and two in hand over Tom McEwen they have some room for error.

Tim Price & Vitali: The World Number 1's Uphill Battle

Tim Price, the FEI World Number 1, and his mount Vitali have a podium chance of 8% and an EquiRatings Elo Rating of 679. He has a challenging task ahead to maintain their current score, as Tim has seen three rails drop in the showjumping round of his last three CCI5* starts. A top 5 finish would place Price in the elite company of riders like Oliver Townend, Andrew Nicholson, Michael Jung, and William Fox-Pitt, who have achieved more than 20 top-five finishes at CCI5* events.

Tom McEwen & Toledo De Kerser: The Show Jumping Powerhouse

Tom McEwen and Toledo De Kerser have a 20% podium chance and an EquiRatings Elo Rating of 795. As the top-rated show jumper in the field, Toledo De Kerser has a stellar track record, with 12 rounds at CCI5* and only ever knocking two rails. They are known to consistently put pressure on the podium with clear rounds.


With records at stake and an extraordinary lineup of contenders, spectators can look forward to an unforgettable showdown. Will Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo make history, or will another pair rise to the occasion and claim the coveted victory?


Stay Ahead with EquiRatings Insights

Unlock the power of data-driven equestrian insights! Subscribe to EquiRatings' newsletter for the latest news in Eventing and Show Jumping, delivered straight to your inbox. Get exclusive access to expert analysis, performance metrics, and captivating stories that keep you ahead of the curve.