The Young Horse Forecast: What Le Lion Really Tells Us About the Future

Last week at the FEI WBFSH Eventing World Championship for Young Horses, Tom McEwen finally claimed his first Le Lion d'Angers title with seven-year-old Brookfield Danny de Muze.  Meanwhile, Lara de Liedekerke-Meier made history as the first Belgian rider to win here with six-year-old Tara Van Het Leliehof.

These victories represent hours and hours of training, preparation, and belief in young talent. But what do they actually tell us about the future and how much can success at Le Lion really predict? More importantly, how can we look beyond the podium to spot tomorrow’s stars?

The answer lies in the data.

Two Divisions, Two Different Stories

Looking at the last decade of winners reveals a pattern about what Le Lion success actually predicts - and where the results can be misleading if you only focus on the top of the leaderboard.

The seven-year-old division has been the more reliable indicator of four-star success. Of the last nine winners (excluding Tom McEwen's 2025 win, which is too recent to judge), five have gone on to win at least one four-star event. These aren't just horses competing at the level - they're winning. Yet interestingly, none have achieved sustained five-star success... yet. Tim Price's Happy Boy is set to compete at Pau 5* this weekend. Could he be the one to break through?

By comparison, the six-year-old division tells a different story. Only two of the last eight winners (excluding the two most recent) have won at four-star level: Kitty King's Cristal Fontaine and Izzy Taylor's Monkeying Around. The success rate is lower, the outcomes more varied. It makes sense - there's a longer road from two-star to four-star, and more can change along the way.

The takeaway? Seven-year-old performance at Le Lion is a stronger predictor of immediate top-level success, while six-year-old results show promise but it's far from a guarantee. It’s a useful signal but not the full story.

The Le Lion Effect

So what happens when you look beyond just the winners? That’s where Le Lion’s real impact becomes clear.

But even beyond the winners, Le Lion tells a bigger story. Horses that compete at Le Lion d'Angers are four times more likely to reach five-star level than the average international eventing horse. Since 2008, of the 1,453 horses that have competed at Le Lion, 291—or 20%—have gone on to compete at five-star. Compare that to just 5% across all 43,678 international horses in our database (records go back to 2008) and the Le Lion advantage becomes undeniable.

The Legends Who Didn't Win

If Le Lion horses are statistically more likely to reach five-star, these names prove exactly why. It’s not about who wins - it’s about who keeps climbing.

Avebury placed thirteenth in 2007. Andrew Nicholson's partner then won three consecutive Burghleys (2008-2010). Avebury consistently made the time cross-country at the world's toughest events and was the definition of a five-star horse.

FischerChipmunk FRH finished twenty-ninth in 2015 when Julia Krajewski rode him. Michael Jung then piloted the horse to Olympic individual gold and two Kentucky 5* wins. He is currently the highest-rated horse in the sport and the second-highest ever recorded in EquiRatings' database.

Lordships Graffalo finished eighth in the 2019 seven-year-old division. Fast forward six years, and he's the highest-rated British horse in EquiRatings history. In September, Walter became the first horse to ever complete the 'double-double': winning both Badminton and Burghley twice.

And to name a few more; Greenacres Special Cavalier finished 17th at Le Lion before becoming a Badminton winner with Caroline Powell. Hooney d’Arville placed sixth as a six-year-old, before retiring on course the next year - a few years later she claimed Belgium’s first-ever five-star victory with Lara de Liedekerke-Meier. And Jonelle Price’s Faerie Dianimo, sixteenth back in 2011, went on to feature in a remarkable 1-2-3 sweep at Luhmühlen (in different years, of course).

Le Lion produces horses far more likely to reach five-star - it’s a launchpad for careers, not just a podium. But identifying those future stars takes more than watching the prize-giving. That’s where data comes in.

Why This Matters

Most people focus on the winner. But if you'd identified Lordships Graffalo's potential when he finished eighth, or recognized FischerChipmunk FRH's quality at twenty-ninth, you'd own horses that went on to dominate the sport.

The challenge isn't knowing that Le Lion matters - everyone knows that. The real challenge is identifying which horses in the field have the data-backed indicators of long-term success.

At EquiRatings, we rate every single horse and every single performance in international eventing. Whether you’re seeking a young prospect with championship potential or a proven performer ready for the next step, data-driven insights help reveal future stars long before the rest of the world catches on.

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If you want to understand how our horse sales service works—whether it be looking for hidden gems or medal contenders—get in touch at info@equiratings.com 

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Read about Sam Lissington's experience: https://news.equiratings.com/stories/i-bought-a-horse-using-data-a-case-study-using-the-equiratings-complete-horse-search