There is a 96% chance Kentucky has a new winner this weekend
Nine of the last ten Kentucky five-star winners have been the same two riders: Michael Jung and Oliver Townend. Neither of them are here this weekend.
The Kentucky Five Star has had two answers for the best part of a decade. Michael Jung or Oliver Townend. Between them, the German and the Brit have shared nine of the last ten editions of the CCI5*-L at the Kentucky Horse Park: Jung winning five times, Townend four. The exception came in 2023, the one year neither rider contested the event, when Tamie Smith ended a 15-year wait for a home winner.
This weekend, neither Jung nor Townend is in the entry list. The only rider in the field with a Kentucky Five-Star title to his name is Phillip Dutton (USA), who won here in 2008 aboard Connaught. The EquiRatings Prediction Centre gives him just a 4% chance of repeating that feat with Possante.
That means there is a 96% probability that when the show jumping dust settles on Sunday, Kentucky will have a winner whose name has never appeared on this trophy before.
The numbers paint an open picture on who may win this week. Tom McEwen and Brookfield Quality lead the pre-competition win chance at 27%, though it is worth noting that the combination went into Pau as favourites with a 19% win chance there, only to retire on the cross-country.
Boyd Martin, a two-time five-star winner who finished second here in 2024, has three combinations in this year's field and accounts for a combined 22% win chance across Commando 3, Miks Master C, and Cooley Nutcracker — though with Miks Master C understood to be Badminton-bound as the primary plan, the picture around his entries is not straightforward.
Will Coleman and Diabolo sit on a 9% win chance, with the horse heading into his first five-star backed by an impressive record and strong underlying numbers. The question of whether this is Coleman's moment for a first five-star win hangs over the week.
The cross-country at Kentucky, as with all five-stars, is unforgiving regardless of who is riding. Across all editions of the event since 2008, only 15% of starters have made the time across country - a number that shows how significantly the course shapes the result. Whoever wins this weekend will have earned it. And for the first time in a long time, almost nobody knows whose name that will be.
Play Eventing Manager
From squeezing big names into the budget to convincing yourself your value pick is about to have the week of its life, this is exactly what playing Eventing Manager looks like at a five-star.
You'll have a plan. You'll ignore it. You'll build a new one. And then you'll watch it all play out. Play here for free.
Listen to Harry Meade and Boyd Martin on the Eventing Podcast
Before the action begins, hear from two of the leading contenders themselves. Harry Meade and Boyd Martin joined Nicole Brown on the Inside Kentucky podcast to discuss final preparations, Derek di Grazia's cross-country track, and the reality of getting to the start line with multiple horses. Listen below or here.