Toronto and Stuttgart by the Numbers

Five horses entered in Stuttgart are rated higher than anything on the Toronto entry list. King Edward leads them on an Elo of 794, 35 points above the best horse heading to Canada.

Toronto has the closer race at the top. Fasther and Farrel share first place on 759, and five horses sit within 12 points of each other. The Longines FEI Jumping World Cup Grand Prix of Toronto is on Saturday night at the Royal Horse Show. Stuttgart’s Grand Prix closes the 40th Stuttgart German Masters on Sunday afternoon.

Combination statistics below cover all CSI5* 1.60m results before this week. Entries are as published before the shows. Riders choose one horse for each Grand Prix, so not every horse listed here will start.

Toronto: five horses inside 12 points

Lillie Keenan has two of the top four. Fasther is joint top on 759, two points off the horse’s best, and Kick On is fourth on 749. Keenan arrives from the World Cup qualifier in Washington, which she won with Kick On.

Casturano returns as the defending champion

Conor Swail & Casturano won this class last year. They come back with an Elo of 747, the highest the horse has reached. The pair have gone clear in 13 of 27 rounds at five-star 1.60m, on courses where fewer than one horse in four goes clear.

Only Laura Kraut and Tres Bien Z have a higher clear rate in this field from ten or more rounds, on 50%. Their courses have been kinder, with more than one horse in three going clear.

Farrel is still looking for a first win

Daniel Coyle & Farrel share top spot on 759, a career high for the horse. They have 12 clears from 28 rounds and eight podium finishes at this level, and the first win has not come yet. Coyle knows the class well. He won it in 2022 with Legacy.

Ward, Bluman and the rest of the field

McLain Ward has won in Toronto four times. He has two horses entered. First Lady is third on 755 and went clear in her only five-star 1.60m round. Jordan Molga M has three clears from five rounds with Ward.

Mark Bluman also has two in the top ten. Landon de Nyze has five clears from 11 rounds with Bluman, and two wins. Kent Farrington won four times at this level on the same horse and is in Toronto with Rexton. Bluman won the RBC Grand Prix of Canada at Spruce Meadows this year.

McKayla Langmeier takes over Gangster WW, rated 731 after ten rounds with Luke Dee. Alex Matz won this class in 2024 with Ikigai, and Skylar Wireman finished second last year with Barclino B. Both horses are entered again.

Stuttgart: King Edward heads the deeper field

Stuttgart has 133 horses from 50 riders on its entry list, and six of them are rated 750 or higher. Toronto has three.

King Edward has the record

Henrik von Eckermann & King Edward are the most successful pair in either field. They have 14 wins and 34 podiums at five-star 1.60m, from 74 clears in 115 rounds. That is a 64% clear rate on courses where fewer than three in ten go clear. The horse’s Elo peaked at 821.

Dynamix de Belheme is at a career high

Steve Guerdat & Dynamix de Belheme are seven points behind on 787, the highest the horse has been. Their 65% clear rate is the best in the field among pairs with ten or more rounds, on courses where about three in ten go clear.

Vogel, Brash and a missing champion

Richard Vogel has won this Grand Prix twice with United Touch S, most recently in 2024. That horse is not entered. Vogel has Cloudio, third on 766, and Gangster Montdesir, sixth on 750. Gangster Montdesir has five wins from 23 rounds and a 61% clear rate, third best in the field.

Scott Brash has three horses entered. Hello Folie is fourth on 763, with ten clears from 19 rounds. Hello Jefferson has 12 wins and 28 podiums at the level, second only to King Edward in this field.

Willem Greve won here last year and is not on the entry list. Pieter Devos, the winner in 2018 and 2019, brings Jarina J, who has eight clears from 15 rounds.

Five Stuttgart horses outrank everything in Toronto, while Toronto’s top five are split by 12 points. Rating or record, who are you backing this weekend?