What the Elo Rating Can Already Tell Us About the Upcoming European Championships
If every nation brings their top-rated combinations to La Coruna, who becomes European Champion?
With just six weeks until the Longines FEI Jumping European Championship arrives in La Coruna, the team at EquiRatings have done a deep-dive into the team landscape. Who would arrive as favourites if every nation fields its four highest-rated horse-and-rider combinations?
Germany Ahead
By averaging the EquiRatings Elo rating of each country’s top quartet (limited to one horse per athlete), Germany emerges with a Team Elo rating of 769. Their pack is spearheaded by Richard Vogel’s United Touch S (775) and flanked by the formidable trio of Messi van ‘t Ruytershof (770) for JF Meyer-Zimmermann, Killer Queen VDM (766) for Daniel Deusser and Iron Dames Dialou Blue PS (763) for Katrin Eckermann.
The battle for a spot on the German European team will be a tough one, however, with almost 20 German horses ranking among the Top 100 rated horses in the world. In a world where only the top-rated combinations for each nation make the team, the German team will have to head to La Coruna without their reigning Olympic Champions, Christian Kukuk & Checker 47, currently on an Elo rating of 756.
With so many strong combinations in one nation, Germany’s depth could turn out to be a mixed blessing and with other strong nations like Belgium & the Netherlands ready for battle, Germany’s team selection will be vital to ensure European success.
Belgium & the Netherlands in the Chase
Like Germany, Belgium boasts enviable depth with a Team Elo of 764, spearheaded by Gilles Thomas’ dreamy stallion, Ermitage Kalone (775). While sporting an impressive Elo rating of 770, Belgium has a strong team member on paper in Gregory Wathelet’s Bond Jamesbond de Hay, but will the pair’s slip-up at World Cup Finals in Basel deprive them from a spot on the team this summer?
The Netherlands will likely lean on multi-medalist Beauville Z N.O.P. (782) & Maikel van der Vleuten to bring the consistency and experience, alongside Harrie Smolders & his Geneva Grand Prix winner, Monaco (775).
The Challengers
France (760) parade consistency through Donatello d’Auge (776) and Cayman Jolly Jumper (768), both already major winners in 2025. Julien Epaillard & Donatello d’Auge became the 2025 World Cup Final Champions in Basel two months ago, while Simon Delestre & Cayman Jolly Jumper scored back-to-back five-star Grand Prix victories in ‘s Hertogenbosch and Paris, Saut Hermes. On the ratings, they would be joined by Dexter de Kerglenn & Visconti du Telman, but with a remarkable run of recent form, Nina Mallevaey & Nikka vd Bisschop (740) could command a spot on this team.
While Ireland are not in the leading form we found them in 12 months ago, they are always a force to be reckoned with in any team competition. If team leaders James Kann Cruz & Legacy can find their pre-Paris form back, they can be a dangerous nation this summer.
Teams of Two Halves
Sweden and Switzerland look like teams of two halves. Sweden’s King Edward carries the record-breaking Elo rating of 813, while Switzerland counters with defending European Champion, Dynamix de Belheme, and the multiple five-star Grand Prix winner, Leone Jei.
The Reigning Team Olympic Champions, Team GB, have a real superstar in their midst with Ben Maher & Point Break, the second-highest rated horse in the world currently. On ratings, however, the team lacks some depth to be among the favourites for a team victory after the sale of Tim Gredley’s Imperial HBF and the retirement of Harry Charles’ Romeo 88. An underdog position has never stopped the Brits from chasing the gold though and with the momentum of their Paris success, no one would be surprised to see them top the leaderboard.
Those headline scores lift each nation’s average, yet the lower two combinations on both rosters sit 30-plus points lower. That split means the super-stars must jump clear as expected, while the lower-rated pairs need to rise to the occasion in La Coruna to keep medal hopes alive.
The Underdogs
Austria (723) and Italy (715) round out the ten nations in the study. Each arrives with standout firepower—think Max Kühner’s Elektric Blue P (765) and Giulia Martinengo Marquet’s Delta del’Isle, but need their supporting acts to find an extra gear if they are to storm the podium come July.
Why the “Power Four” matters
The EquiRatings Elo rating is a predictive metric that weighs a combination’s historical performance against the quality of competition faced.
“It’s a fun thought experiment, but it also highlights where federations may have tough selection calls,” explains EquiRatings co-founder Sam Watson. “Germany’s depth is well-known, yet you see Belgium and the Dutch basically level. Factor in the pressure of a championship environment—plus the inevitable late-season form shifts—and this looks wide open.”
The road to Casas Novas
The Longines FEI Jumping European Championship runs 16–20 July 2025 at the iconic Casas Novas complex. National selectors have until early July to finalise their travelling squads, meaning campaigns at La Baule, Rotterdam & Aachen could still reshape these numbers.
One thing is certain: if each nation unleashes its “Power Four”, the battle for team gold could produce the tightest finish Europe has witnessed in a decade. Fans in Galicia—and those tuning in worldwide—will not want to miss a single fence.