Who wins the 2023 FEI Jumping World Cup Final?
No major surprises as the EquiRatings Jumping Prediction Centre model is released.
You know it’s a going to be a great week of action when you look at the win chances and find that the horse with the perfect (4/4) 160 record this season, Vancouver de Lanlore, is hovering in 17th position with a 1% win chance (721 Elo). Worth noting that all four of those clears were at World Cup shows. 16 horses with a better chance on paper? What a field!
Several pairs follow on 3%. View them, plus the entire field, at the EquiRatings Jumping Prediction Centre.
What is this?
EquiRatings uses an Elo rating system combined with a comprehensive performance model to rank the best show jumping horses in the world. The Elo rating system is based on a horse's past performance history and calculates its relative skill level compared to other horses. It is working well as a tool for Olympic managers managing a performance team, for riders looking to use Moneyball techniques to identify equine talent and for media and commentators on weekends like this when it can help shape the story as to how to order a field.
When it comes to the win and podium chances you see here, we use the performance model (which includes factors such as clears, faults, level, recency, championships, prize money, and other performance metrics) and we simulate the competition thousands of times.
It is these simulations which allow us to provide accurate win chances for each combination in show jumping competitions. The performance model is continually updated with new data, ensuring that the predictions are always based on the most up-to-date information.
Sam, Diarm, and Nicole chat through the field's stats and metrics. Listen to the Omaha Preview here.
King Edward (798 Elo) is last to jump tonight and will know exactly the job he has to do by then. The world champion has a win chance of 12% and is a narrow favourite over Scuderia 1918 Tobago Z (11%, 793 Elo). These are the two powerhouse horses of the sport at the moment and are 4-4 in the head-to-head battle between them. How ironic would it be if the first ever 160 win for Monaco N.O.P. (9% win chance, 765 Elo) arrived here this weekend. Harrie and Monaco jump so many 160 clears that this format could suit and the model puts them in the top 3. Leone Jei, here with the defending champion, has a win chance of 8% and an Elo rating of 760.
The fun starts when we see that Legacy (754) and Ladriano Z (755), and Hello Jefferson (730) and Messi van 't Ruytershof (741) are all bunching up and are so close on paper. These combinations have win chances between 4-5% and Elo ratings ranging from 730 to 755.
We will update the win chances each day. Follow them here.