Why Badminton 2025 Might Be the Greatest Five-Star Ever

The highest-rated Badminton field and the highest-rated five-star field are both records that began in 2010 and are both about to be usurped by this year's Badminton starting line-up. In fact, Badminton 2025 is set to boast a field-strength rating higher than every Olympic Games on record, and is set to become the second highest-rated competition on record behind the 2022 World Championships at Pratoni Del Vivaro.

The Rating

Field strength is the average Elo rating of the Top 25 rated horses in a competition. It indicates the quality and the depth of a field of competitors. While the Elo rating measures quality and consistency of performance, the metric will generally favour the older horses who have had more time to build their rating. The highest Elo in the field belongs to Ballaghmor Class (890) who few will dispute is a five-star great. However, his younger adversary Lordships Graffalo (865) is lower rated on the Elo but far more highly rated on the EquiRatings Prediction Centre. This tells us that the body of work produced by Ballaghmor Class is still greater, and he shows no apparent decline, but the expected performance of Lordships Graffalo should still be superior based on his recent form and current metrics.

Other Key Competitors

JL Dublin (835) takes the third spot on Elo rating and is arguably the best horse currently in the sport yet to win a five-star. Galileo Nieuwmoed (793) and Vitali (783) are proven five-star specialists with excellent cross-country form. The former tends to climb after phase one, whereas the later has been the pace-setter who has slipped on the final day. If either can squeeze improvement in their weaker phase and maintain the strength of their other two, then they are also going in search of a major title.

Eloflation

Badminton 2025 is set to record a field strength of 724. Given that the Elo was first applied to the sport of eventing in 2008 from a blanket standing start (assuming all horses were neutral performers) it does take a significant amount of time to build. La Biosthetique Sam FBW for example, made his championship debut in 2009 and some of his early career wasn't recorded by the Elo. In addition, many of the established horses that he beat in his career were not rated as highly as they should have been as they also put many of their best performances on record before 2008. Therefore, there is a small trend of Elo inflation which becomes less and less as time goes by.

The next highest five-star on the field strength rating is Badminton 2022 (711). Eloflation does not account for this difference, so Badminton is comfortably the top-rated five-star this decade.

In 2017, Badminton recorded a field strength of 703. And in 2013, the figure was 694. BOTH of these competitions are certainly victims of Eloflation and it becomes a debate as to which of Badminton 2013, 2017 and 2025 is REALLY the strongest field of horses ever assembled at a five-star.

This analyst's opinion is 2013. Nicholson and Fox-Pitt were BOTH double-handed AND they were both going for a Grand Slam. Jung and Auffarth were both riding championship gold medalists. Paget took the win on a five-star great. The quality in behind these headliners was there in bulk as well.

The facts say the best on the record, but our feeling is that it's VERY close.