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Thursday in Gothenburg: The Difference Between Winning and Losing

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The 2025 Gothenburg Horse Show is set to deliver world-class sport, and the competition wouldn&rsquo;t be complete without the incredible equine athletes taking center stage. Using the Elo rating system, we&rsquo;ve identified the top-rated horses competing this weekend, and with a crucial World Cup Qualifier on the line, the stakes couldn&rsquo;t be higher.

Gothenburg 2025: Stars of the Show

Click here to start exploring your fan guide!&nbsp;
<a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/403681062/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://digital.equiratings.com/view/403681062/</a>
<h2>What you'll see in the guide:</h2>
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<ul>
<li>Who wins? Predictions for tonight's big class</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li>Big names &amp; top-ranked riders at the Gothenburg Horse Show this year</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li>Medal-winning horses who first honed their skills at GHS</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li>What's the competition format (rule summary)?</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li>The last 10 winners of this class</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li>The statistics for every single competitor (in their starting order)</li>
</ul>
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There'll be a new guide every day so <a href="https://news.equiratings.com/categories/gothenburg-horse-show" target="_blank" rel="noopener">check back here</a> to see them all:
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<ul>
<li>Thursday: Prize of AJ Produkter | TODAY!</li>
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<ul>
<li>Friday: Prize of Agria (1.50 m speed class)</li>
</ul>
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<li>Saturday: Gothenburg Trophy presented by Volvo Cars</li>
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<ul>
<li>Sunday: LONGINES FEI JUMPING World Cup&trade;&nbsp;presented by Guldfynd</li>
</ul>
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Enjoy your evening and follow us on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/equiratings_showjumping/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Instagram</a> and <a href="https://www.whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaByaVo3QxS7qLas323H" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WhatsApp</a> for all the latest on the Gothenburg Horse Show.

Close-up profile image of Peder Fredricson riding the bay horse Alcapone des Carmille during a show jumping competition.

Fan guide for Thursday evening's Prize of AJ Produkter

The excitement is building at the Gothenburg Horse Show as the International 1.50m class with jump-off, presented by AJ Produkte, promises a thrilling battle between seasoned champions and rising stars. With top contenders vying for victory and a prediction center crunching the numbers, all eyes are on tonight&rsquo;s showdown. Will the hometown heroes rise to the occasion, or will challengers steal the spotlight?
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<h2>Hometown Heroes: Can Sweden Shine Again?</h2>
Sweden's finest are ready to put on a show in front of an electric home crowd. Henrik von Eckermann&rsquo;s Iliana enters as the clear favorite, backed by a recent Grand Prix win in Basel and a history of success in this very class, having claimed victory in 2023.
Peder Fredricson &amp; Alcapone des Carmille are strong contenders as well, boasting a 6% win chance and an impressive career-high Elo rating of 723. They started the year on a high note with a podium finish in a 150 jump-off class in Amsterdam.&nbsp;
Meanwhile, Jens Fredricson &amp; Diarado&rsquo;s Rose Elith return to five-star competition after a four-month hiatus, with a 5% win probability. Their national success, including a victory in the 150 Grand Prix of Gothenburg last August, adds an extra layer of intrigue to their performance tonight.
<h2>Challengers on the Rise: Who Can Upset the Favorites?</h2>
While the Swedish stars have home advantage, several challengers are entering the arena with equally strong credentials. Maikel van der Vleuten &amp; O&rsquo;Bailey vh Brouwershof NOP enter with a 6% win chance, maintaining a stellar record of never incurring more than four penalties in their last eight CSI4*/CSI5* 150+ rounds. Max K&uuml;hner&rsquo;s EIC Up Too Jacco Blue is another major player, coming off a clear round in Bordeaux&rsquo;s World Cup and a strong return to five-star level after a strategic break from competition.
Steve Guerdat &amp; Looping Luna bring plenty of experience and momentum after winning a 155 class in Leipzig last month. They stand on a 6% win probability&mdash;enough to make them a serious threat.
Dutch rider Kim Emmen &amp; Imagine also carry a 6% win chance and could use this class as a stepping stone toward her ultimate goal&mdash;earning crucial World Cup points here in Gothenburg.
<h2>The Dark Horses: Who Could Spring a Surprise?</h2>
Among the outsiders looking to shake up the leaderboard, Mario Stevens &amp; Carrie 22 have maintained an outstanding 80% clear rate (8/10) in CSI5* 150 competitions over the last year, making them a formidable duo. Their win probability stands at 6%, and with their past triumph in Oslo&rsquo;s 155 Grand Prix, they are well-positioned to fight for the top spot.
Another name to watch is Donald Whitaker &amp; Ulania 3, who have demonstrated remarkable consistency, boasting eight clear rounds out of 14 at the CSI5 150 level* in the past year. With two Top 4 finishes in London&rsquo;s World Cup show, they have proven they can handle the pressure on the big stage.
<h2> The Stage is Set&mdash;Who Will Emerge Victorious?</h2>
With Iliana and von Eckermann leading the charge, Fredricson brothers adding firepower, and an elite international lineup ready to pounce, tonight&rsquo;s 150 jump-off class is shaping up to be an exciting battle at the Gothenburg Horse Show. Will statistics and form hold true, or will we witness an unexpected triumph?
Stay tuned as the action unfolds!
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Thursday in Gothenburg: Who Will Conquer Tonight's Jump-Off Class?

All eyes will be on hometown hero, Henrik von Eckermann, who has been holding the World Number 1 spot for 31 consecutive months. The reigning World Champion, double World Cup Champion and reigning Team European Champion will be hugely backed by his home crowd in the Scandinavium Arena in Gothenburg this weekend.
He is joined by the Swiss duo, Steve Guerdat (World #2) and Martin Fuchs (World #5), and also Max K&uuml;hner (#9) joins from the Top 10 in the world.&nbsp;
With world-class talent on display, the battle for victory will be intense. Who are you backing to come out on top?
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Greats Gather in Gothenburg

With just one qualifier remaining before the Longines FEI Jumping World Cup&trade; Final in Basel, the Western European League has delivered an unforgettable season of thrilling victories, breakout performances, and dramatic battles.
Instead of just recapping the season, we&rsquo;ve gone straight to the riders who made the headlines&mdash;in their own words.
From Oslo to Bordeaux, here&rsquo;s the story of the season as told straight from the saddle.
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The season opener saw 40 athletes battle through a tight, technical course at the Telenor Arena, where only four made the jump-off&mdash;a clear sign of the challenge posed. Wathelet and Bond Jamesbond de Hay proved uncatchable in his first indoor appearance of the season, setting the pace for what would be a sensational campaign.
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The technical Helsinki track saw 13 athletes make the jump-off, testing riders' ability to balance speed and control. Robert Whitaker and Vermento delivered a flawless, well-timed round, earning their first World Cup win of the season.
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A tightly contested event, Lyon featured one of the fastest jump-offs of the season. Richard Vogel and United Touch S executed a bold shortcut to the oxer, making the difference in an incredibly competitive field.
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One of the season&rsquo;s biggest breakout moments, Sophie Hinners and Iron Dames My Prins took their first-ever World Cup win. The five-horse jump-off saw Hinners outpace her seasoned rivals, including Olympic Champion Ben Maher and three-time World Cup Final winner Marcus Ehning.
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Vogel made it two wins in three weeks, delivering a textbook round on United Touch S to take the Stuttgart title, further strengthening his World Cup campaign.
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The sixth leg of the season saw 10 riders qualify for the jump-off, with Bucci and Hantano delivering a flawless performance to become the first Italian pair to win the Madrid leg in history.
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A 14-horse jump-off saw Weishaupt and Coby 8 edge out the competition by less than half a second, marking his second career World Cup win.
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A five-rider jump-off saw Darragh Kenny and Eddy Blue dethrone defending champion Ben Maher, securing a dream victory in front of a roaring British crowd.
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Dreher secured his first-ever World Cup win after an intense battle against Belgian favorite Gilles Thomas, shaving just 0.08 seconds off the lead.
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Epaillard put on a speed masterclass, storming to victory with Donatello d&rsquo;Auge, securing his spot in the World Cup Final.
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A 13-horse jump-off provided one of the closest battles of the season. Hans-Dieter Dreher set the early pace with a 41.55-second round, but Greve and Highway TN N.O.P. shaved a full second off, clocking 40.52 seconds. French star Simon Delestre finished second, with Dreher third in a high-class showdown.
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Riding the 17-year-old Sterrehof&rsquo;s Dante, Marc Houtzager became a two-time Amsterdam champion, repeating his 2020 victory. Against a six-horse jump-off, his flawless execution and tight turns secured an emotional home win.
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A must-win event for Martin Fuchs, Bordeaux saw him and Conner Jei rise to the occasion. After struggling early in the season, Fuchs delivered two clear rounds, securing victory over Pieter Devos and Willem Greve. His faultless performance ensured qualification for Basel.

What the Winners Said: The Western European League in the Words of Its Champions

<h2>A Stellar Season, But Not a Guarantee</h2>
Richard Vogel has had an exceptional campaign in the 2024-2025 Longines FEI Jumping World Cup&trade; Western European League, securing two major victories in Stuttgart and Lyon aboard his outstanding stallion, United Touch S. With 42 points, he sits in 14th place in the standings&mdash;historically a safe position for Basel qualification.
Yet, in the unpredictable world of show jumping, no position is truly secure until the final points are counted. And while the odds are in Vogel&rsquo;s favor, there remains a slim chance he could be pushed out of the Top 18.
According to EquiRatings' predictive analysis, the probability of Vogel missing out on Basel sits at around 7%&mdash;low, but not impossible.
<h2>What Would Need to Happen for Vogel to Miss Out?</h2>
For Richard Vogel not to qualify, at least five of the following eight scenarios would need to occur in Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup in Gothenburg:
<ul>
<li>Peder Fredricson wins</li>
<li>Mario Stevens finishes on the podium</li>
<li>Harrie Smolders finishes 5th or higher</li>
<li>Edouard Schmitz finishes 7th or higher</li>
<li>Kim Emmen finishes 8th or higher</li>
<li>Denis Lynch finishes 9th or higher</li>
<li>Steve Guerdat finishes 14th or higher</li>
<li>Maikel van der Vleuten finishes 14th or higher</li>
</ul>
Each of these riders would need a high finish to collect enough points to push Vogel down the standings. The challenge? Many of these scenarios are unlikely to happen all at once.
<h2> Final Verdict: A Safe Bet, But Not a Lock</h2>
While five out of these eight scenarios happening simultaneously is a long shot, it&rsquo;s not impossible. Vogel will not be competing in Gothenburg, meaning his fate rests entirely on the performances of others.
With a 93% chance of qualifying, Vogel and his team can be cautiously optimistic. But as the final leg in Gothenburg approaches, every rail, stride, and time fault could play a role in deciding the final list of competitors heading to Basel 2025.
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Against the Odds: Could Richard Vogel Miss the World Cup Final Qualification?

After 13 intense qualifiers, the battle for the last remaining tickets to the FEI Jumping World Cup&trade; Final is coming to a dramatic close at the Gothenburg Horse Show in the legendary Scandinavium Arena. Only the top 18 riders in the Western European League standings will qualify for Basel, but with just one event left, the leaderboard is still in flux.
<h2>The Final Countdown: What&rsquo;s at Stake in Gothenburg?</h2>
A handful of riders can relax, their qualification guaranteed. Others are walking a tightrope, knowing that a single rail down could be the difference between competing in Basel or staying home. And then there are those who need nothing short of a spectacular performance to make a last-minute leap into the Top 18.
Here&rsquo;s how the standings look heading into Gothenburg and what each rider needs to secure their place.
<h2>Safe for Basel: Already Qualified and Ready for the Final</h2>
A number of athletes need not to worry about their qualification for the World Cup Finals in Basel and are sure of their spot. League leader, Kevin Staut, while present at the Gothenburg Horse Show, does not need to worry about chasing points, as he is already sure of his place in the Finals after having collected 70 points throughout the &lsquo;24-&rsquo;25 Western European League. As a matter of fact, the current Top 14 ranked riders in the FEI Western European World Cup standings can be relatively sure of their qualification for Basel.
The current #14 ranked rider in that list is the German phenomenon, Richard Vogel, who in the saddle of his incredible stallion, United Touch S, won two World Cup qualifiers in Stuttgart and Lyon. As he won&rsquo;t be competing in Gothenburg this weekend, he will complete his &lsquo;24-&rsquo;25 World Cup campaign on 42 points. While he can be almost sure of his spot in the Finals in Basel, there is a very small chance those 42 points would not suffice.
<h3>What Would Need to Happen for Richard Vogel Not to Qualify for Basel?</h3>
For Richard Vogel not to qualify for the World Cup Finals in Basel, at least five of the following eight scenarios would need to occur in Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup in Gothenburg:
<ul>
<li>Peder Fredricson wins</li>
<li>Mario Stevens finishes on the podium</li>
<li>Harrie Smolders finishes 5th or higher</li>
<li>Edouard Schmitz finishes 7th or higher</li>
<li>Kim Emmen finishes 8th or higher</li>
<li>Denis Lynch finishes 9th or higher</li>
<li>Steve Guerdat finishes 14th or higher</li>
<li>Maikel van der Vleuten finishes 14th or higher</li>
</ul>
According to the brains behind the EquiRatings Predictive Analysis, the chances of Richard Vogel not qualifying for the 2025 World Cup Finals in Basel lies between 5%-10%.
<h2> On the Edge: Riders Fighting to Hold Their Spot</h2>
A total of 6 riders are competing in Gothenburg with a goal to secure their ticket to the 2025 Basel World Cup Finals.
<h3>Holding Steady: Staying in the Top 18</h3>
While both Maikel van der Vleuten (#15) and Steve Guerdat (#17) are currently in the safe zone on 40 points, they could do with a couple more points to ensure their spot in Basel. Both riders come in with strong irons in the fire.&nbsp;
Maikel&rsquo;s Beauville Z N.O.P. is currently the second-highest rated horse in the world and in the form of his life, reaching a career-high Elo rating of 794, one of the Top 5 highest Elo ratings ever recorded. He is also the reigning Olympic Individual Bronze medalist.&nbsp;
Steve comes in on another individual Olympic medalist. On Dynamix de Belheme, he claimed Silver in Paris and will try to score some additional World Cup points to be able to compete in World Cup Finals on home soil.
<h3>Last Call for Basel: Who Can Break into the Top 18?</h3>
No rider has had quite the start to 2025 as Denis Lynch. Fresh off a double clear to help Team Ireland secure victory in the first Longines League of Nations in Abu Dhabi on Vistogrand, the pair comes to Gothenburg to try and claim a spot in the Finals. Currently ranked just outside the qualification zone in 19th place on 35 points. The current cut-off for the Finals lies at 37 points and will likely end up around the 42 point-mark. To get to that threshold, Denis would need 7 additional World Cup points, which translates to finishing in 10th place or higher in Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup.
Currently in 20th place on 34 points, Kim Emmen comes to Gothenburg with a real fighting chance at qualification for Basel. To get to the projected 42-point qualification threshold, Kim would need to finish 9th or higher in the Gothenburg World Cup. She has entered her Olympic partner, Imagine, with whom she had finished 6th in last year&rsquo;s Gothenburg World Cup.
Just like Steve Guerdat, Edouard Schmitz is also still vying for a place to compete in World Cup Finals in his home country. He is in need of 9 World Cup points to reach the projected 40-point threshold, which translates to a 8th place finish or higher on Sunday.
To get to his eighth World Cup Finals, Harrie Smolders will likely need at least 11 more points. He currently sits in 22nd place on the World Cup standings and would likely need an 6th place or higher in Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup. He brings an exciting string of horses to the table including his Geneva Grand Prix winner, Monaco.
<h2> Do or Die: Riders Who Must Deliver in Gothenburg</h2>
Four additional riders are currently well outside the qualification zone, but with a podium performance in Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup of Gothenburg could claim a spot in the World Cup Finals in Basel.
Mario Stevens has already collected 29 World Cup points and stands in 26th position in the standings. A podium position would give the German at least 15 more points, he could boost himself up the standings and qualify for the Finals.
As Yuri Mansur represents Brazil, he will not take a spot of the 18 qualified riders from the Western European League, but if he matches the amount of points of the lowest qualified rider in this league, he could enter the Finals as an extra. To get to the projected 42 point threshold, he would need to finish second or higher in Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup.
The chances for Gothenburg home crowd are in the very capable hands of Peder Fredricson. He currently stands in 30th place in the World Cup standings on 24 points. To qualify for the Finals, the Swedish star would need to put in a huge performance in Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup and take the win to add 20 World Cup points to his tally. In Catch Me Not S, he has a very experienced partner on his hands who knows how to perform in the Scandinavium Arena. The pair finished third in the World Cup here last year and also claimed bronze in the 2019 World Cup Finals held in Gothenburg.&nbsp;
A win on Sunday could also bring Geraldine Straumann to her first World Cup Finals. So far, she has collected 22 World Cup points and the 20 points for the victory could give her enough points to qualify for Basel.
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<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/ff71ec7e-0cde-4b8d-9b61-a91bb957ac4b.png?width=1316&amp;height=3100" alt="2 Cb04 the Road to Basel the Western European World Cup Standings Ahead of the Final Leg in Gothenburg ">
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With the final qualification spots on the line, Gothenburg promises to be a heart-pounding battle. Some riders will secure their dream of competing at World Cup Finals, while others will leave Sweden devastated, knowing they came up just short.
As we head into one of the most critical events of the FEI World Cup season, one thing is certain:
<h3>It&rsquo;s all or nothing in Gothenburg.</h3>

Gothenburg Horse Show