94% chance at history
From shock falls (ever consistent Harry!) to shock speed (Sam Watson...?), Badminton 2026 cross-country day delivered everything you'd expect and a few things you wouldn't.
Ros Canter & Lordships Graffalo did it again! They went clear inside the time to maintain their lead and head into the showjumping with a 94% win chance. But this is about more than just a win. Lordships Graffalo is chasing history: a third Badminton title that would make him the first horse ever to win the event three times. No horse has done it. Walter just might.
The cross-country ran almost exactly to script. Of 59 starters, 33 went clear - a rate of 56%, right in line with our pre-event expectation. The average time fault tally across the field was 7.2 penalties, again where we expected it. Seven combinations went inside the time for a rate of 12%, each collecting the full 60 Eventing Manager points:
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Ros Canter & Lordships Graffalo: 80 points total on EM, 94% win chance heading into Sunday.
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Harry Meade & Annaghmore Valoner: Sitting second overnight on 74 EM points. His seventh Badminton clear inside the time in the modern era, bettered only by Andrew Nicholson's eleven.
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Sarah Bullimore & Corimiro: Move into third on 72 EM points. The homebred ten-year-old has been one of the stories of the week. Bullimore put it simply: "He is the reason that I am still doing it and the reason I get out of bed in the morning. He is an absolute pleasure to ride in every phase."
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Katie Magee & Treworra: In fourth place, they are likely to set improve on their finishing position at Badminton last year (11th).
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Gaspard Maksud & Zaragoza: 12th overnight and the first French rider inside the time at Badminton in ten years.
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Tayla Mason & Centennial: A huge result for this pair to sit in 14th going into showjumping.
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Holly Richardson & Ballyneety Silver Service: Backing up their Bramham 4*L form where they were inside the time, this pair sit 23rd overnight.
Ros and Walter go into Sunday not even needing a clear round (6.6 penalty margin) to make history... although they are 5/5 clear jumping from their five 5* starts. Second through sixth are within a rail of each other. One phase remains.