All Eyes on Arville: Is Chip Still King?

This weekend's FEI Eventing Nations Cup in Arville is the perfect opportunity to tell us two things a month out from Europeans:

• Can anyone touch fischerChipmunk FRH’s level?
• Which teams are hitting peak form and ready to fight for medals?

The Benchmark: Michael Jung & fischerChipmunk FRH

Michael Jung and fischerChipmunk FRH arrive as the standout individual favourites with a 40% win chance — and for good reason. Their résumé is (nearly) next to none, but it's the dressage arena where their supremacy truly lies. Jung's impressive 20.7 Six Run Average (6RA) sits out in front by over 7 marks of his closest competitor in Arville this weekend. His cross-country and showjumping statistics are relatively normal for a top horse; it's the dressage that creates the untouchable advantage. At Kentucky, they started on 18.5 and sat 7.4 marks ahead of second place going into cross-country — the largest leading margin after dressage in five-star history. 

Heading into Arville, fischerChipmunk FRH's EquiRatings Elo sits at 919, just 6 points shy of his career peak of 925 achieved in 2022. A victory this weekend could see him arrive at the Europeans at the absolute pinnacle of his form.

The question becomes: Is this the best combination in the sport right now? And more crucially for anyone hoping to challenge them — can you go low enough in dressage to stay within striking distance?

The Rivalry That Isn't Here

The elephant in the room is Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo — arguably the only combination that could challenge Jung for the title of king. The 2023 European champions are  the undisputed rulers of five-star eventing at the moment. Yet still they were no match for fischerChipmunk FRH in Paris — flag controversy or not.

But here's the twist: Canter is expecting her second baby and will miss the Europeans entirely. With Canter not challenging Chip's supremacy — has Jung's path to European gold just became a whole lot clearer? Or will someone emerge at Arville?

Why Arville is the Perfect Pre-Europeans Test

Arville’s numbers speak for themselves and make it the perfect pre-Europeans test. Since its first CCI4*-S in 2012, only 57% of riders have jumped clear in the cross-country phase, well below the global average of 68%. By contrast, Aachen 2025 — often seen as the key stage where Europe’s best go head-to-head — saw a 72% clear rate, showing that Arville is statistically the tougher challenge. In over a decade of Arville’s competitions, only 3% of competitors have made the optimum time — just 19 riders in total.

Showjumping at Arville is always tough — and this year, it’s even harder. Since Arville began hosting in 2012, the global clear rate for CCI4*-S showjumping sits around 29%. At Arville, it’s usually lower, with only 23% of riders jumping clear. But when the showjumping comes after cross-country — the format used from 2012 to 2015 — that clear rate dropped to just 12%.

What is most impressive, is the quality of this year's Arville field. With a field strength Elo of 675 — just 4 points behind Aachen's 679. When you combine championship-level difficulty with championship-level depth, the stage is set for a genuine test of European contenders.

The Fastest Threat

Calvin Böckmann and Phantom of the Opera return to Arville as defending champions — and perhaps the strongest threat to fischerChipmunk FRH's dominance. With an 11% win chance on the EquiRatings Prediction Centre, they come in with serious credentials, having been the only combination to make the cross-country time here in 2024. 

The speed statistics reveal Böckmann’s upper hand: while fischerChipmunk FRH ranks 24th globally for Top Speed Percentage (TSP) in the Arville field, Phantom of the Opera sits at number one. Böckmann's mount boasts a 45% second cross-country clear rate at this level compared to Chip's 28%.

Böckmann’s speed could be the key to closing the gap Chip often has after dressage. If Böckmann can beat fischer Chipmunk FRH here, it would send a clear message heading into the Europeans that the king is not untouchable.

A European Preview 

This is the weekend where nations test their strongest competitors — a chance to see who can take on fischerChipmunk FRH in a month’s time, and which teams are truly ready to challenge for gold.

Along with Jung and Böckmann, Germany brings big names like Jerome Robine with Black Ice, Christoph Wahler on D’Accord FRH, and Malin Hansen-Hotopp with both Callfield and Carlitos Quidditch K. A team success this weekend could signal they’re ready to take team gold at the Europeans.

Belgium's 20-strong contingent also includes multiple European contenders. Led by Lara De Liedekerke-Meier who is campaigning three horses; Quintus, five-star winner Hooney d’Arville, and Kiarado d'Arville, who finished second to Michael Jung at Avenches just two weeks ago. As the owner of the Arville estate, Lara’s knowledge may prove invaluable for the Belgian team this weekend. But let’s not forget, their home-field advantage won’t follow them to the English countryside in September.

The Netherlands make their 2025 Nations Cup debut this week after a quiet start to the season. With 7 combinations entered, they could be timing their peak perfectly ahead of the Europeans. One to watch is Seattle Park — produced by Sophia Hill in Australia and now ridden by Jillian Giessen — who could be a real underdog contender for the Europeans this year.

Sweden's shock Strzegom victory has given them confidence, but can they repeat that form against deeper opposition? Impressively, their team arrive as second favourites. Could this be Sweden’s biggest year yet?

The Big Question

Every ride this weekend has European Championship implications — who's on form, who's ready for the pressure, and who still has work to do before the continent's best gather for gold?

If fischerChipmunk FRH dominates again, the answer to who is king might feel obvious. But he’ll still have to prove it one more time at Blenheim in September.

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