Cross Country Time at Defender Kentucky 5*

With dressage done and dusted, we’ve got a leaderboard loaded with talent, pressure, and just a touch of chaos heading into Saturday’s cross country at the Defender Kentucky Three-Day Event Presented by MARS. After the first phase, the riders have laid their cards on the table — but this is eventing, and the game can changes dramatically once the stopwatches start ticking.

Prediction Centre Win, Podium and Top 10 Chances After Dressage

Changes in Prediction Centre Chances After Dressage

Metrics Explained

When it comes to cross-country analysis, a few key metrics give real insight into performance—and they help us look beyond just clear rounds or penalties. 

XCJ10 shows a horse’s clear jumping rate across its last 10 international cross-country runs, revealing consistency over time.

Avg XCJ10 provides crucial course context, showing how tough those tracks were for everyone.

Adj XCJ10 then measures how a horse’s clear rate compares to those course averages—positive means above the standard, negative means below. 

TSP (Top Speed Percentage) shows the percentage of opponents a horse has outrun on its fastest days, highlighting speed and competitiveness.

At EquiRatings, we use these metrics because the sport is more than just "yes" or "no" on the scoreboard. Every course, every round, and every competitor brings different challenges—and smart stats give fans, riders, and selectors a much deeper understanding of performance and potential.

The Podium's Cross Country Metrics

1. fischerChipmunk FRH (Michael Jung)

XCJ10: 70%  Avg XCJ10: 71%  Adj XCJ10: -0.1%  TSP: 85.7
No stranger to the pressure of a five-star, Chipmunk has the stats and the rider to back up his position at the top. With a 90% clear rate over the toughest tracks in the world and one of the best adjusted XCJ scores in the field, Michi Jung’s machine isn’t just classy — he’s lethal on cross country.
XC time: 13:54 EST

2. Commando 3 (Boyd Martin)

XCJ10: 90%  Avg XCJ10: 62%  Adj XCJ10: 28%  TSP: 90
Boyd Martin’s latest rising star is all about control, scope, and speed. While he’s still new to the 5* level, Commando 3 has shown nothing but promise. If Boyd chooses to go for it — and you know he will — this horse could shake up the leaderboard by tomorrow afternoon.
XC time: 15:50 EST

3. Brookfield Quality (Tom McEwen)

XCJ10: 80%  Avg XCJ10: 64%  Adj XCJ10: 16%  TSP: 90.9
Brookfield Quality brings serious polish and power to Kentucky, and with Tom McEwen in the saddle, he's in safe hands. He’s proven at the level and shows top-tier XC reliability — plus, that TSP suggests he can really shift when asked.
XC time: 15:06 EST

Other Horses to Watch on Cross Country

🖤 Grafennacht (Harry Meade)

XCJ10: 90%  Avg XCJ10: 59%  Adj XCJ10: 31%  TSP: 93
Grafennacht is an elite cross-country talent with impeccable form under Harry Meade. Cool-headed, accurate, and blisteringly quick when needed, she’s already shown she can handle the pressure at major internationals. Despite it being this combination's first five-star together, they are one of the most dangerous in the field heading into XC.
XC time: 15:46 EST

🔥 Karma (James Alliston)

XCJ10: 100%  Avg XCJ10: 70%  Adj XCJ10: 30%  TSP: 89
Karma has been quietly climbing into elite territory and now finds herself in a spotlight moment. James Alliston is no stranger to Kentucky, and Karma’s cross-country form is aggressive and clean. She’s one of the few in this field who wants the stopwatch pressure — and she thrives under it.
XC time: 02:00 EST

⚡ Fluorescent Adolescent (Jessica Phoenix)

XCJ10: 80%  Avg XCJ10: 51%  Adj XCJ10: 29%  TSP: 91
This mare is nothing if not dependable — and fast. Jessica Phoenix brings Canadian grit and serious experience to the table, and Fluorescent Adolescent is building a reputation as one of the most reliable XC rounds on the circuit. Don’t be surprised if this pair climbs.
XC time: 01:38 EST

🧨 Fedarman B (Boyd Martin)

XCJ10: 90%  Avg XCJ10: 63%  Adj XCJ10: 27%  TSP: 96
Fedarman B is Boyd’s warhorse. Experienced, explosive, and known for attacking the biggest courses with heart and pace. Sitting eleventh place with the second fastest horse in the field, every other rider will be watching this pair leave the start box. A full-tilt run is never off the table — and often, it’s just what wins it.
XC time: 01:34 EST

What Happens Next?

Saturday is about grit. Kentucky is a test of nerve, stamina — and the stopwatch.

Cross-country day here has never been easy. On average, just 57% jump clear and only 12% make the time across the past ten years. It’s the kind of phase that doesn’t just shake up the leaderboard — it can blow it wide open.

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