Showdown at Kentucky: Who is about to win their first five star?

The Front-Runners: Monica Spencer & Artist

Monica Spencer holds the top spot on Artist with a score of 22.3. While the pressure is high, she has a much needed cushion: a rail in hand over Diabolo and HSH Blake, and two rails over the rest of the field - the pressure is firmly on Artist’s jumping record.

• • The SJ Challenge: Artist’s history at the 5* level shows this final phase is his Achilles' heel; he has gone 0/6 for clear rounds at this level.
  • The Penalty Trend: Most of his 5* rounds have resulted in 8 jumping faults, a margin that would likely see them surrender the lead today.
  • A Glimmer of Hope: There is a silver lining, as the pair has managed a 4-fault round at Burghley 2024, showing they are capable of keeping the damage to a single rail.
  • Win Chance: Despite the jumping nerves, they currently hold a 46% win probability.

The Challenger: Will Coleman & Diabolo

Will Coleman and Diabolo head into the final day in 2nd place on a score of 27.3. As they prepare for Diabolo’s CCI5*-L debut show jumping round, the stats suggest they are the biggest threat to the leader.

• • The Jumping Powerhouse: This being his first five-star so some unknowns exist but Diabolo’s record at the lower levels is exceptional; he has an average of just 0.7 jump penalties over his last six FEI runs.
  • Performance Metric: He boasts an Adjusted SJ average of -3.7, meaning he typically performs nearly a full rail better than his opponents—the strongest jumping metric of anyone in the Top 3.
  • Win Chance: The data gives them a 35% win probability, and an 84% chance of staying in the Top 3.
  • Watch the Clock: Diabolo has added time faults in each of his three runs over the last 12 months. Will holds a 3-second buffer over Caroline Pamukcu in 3rd place which might be needed.
  • Going for the Double: If Will & Diabolo can win today, they will become the first combination to take the double of winning both Kentucky CCI5*-L and the CCI4*-S.

The Rising Star: Caroline Pamukcu & HSH Blake

Caroline Pamukcu sits in 3rd with HSH Blake on 28.6. While the top of the leaderboard is crowded, Caroline is in a prime position to secure a career-defining result.

• • Reliability at the Level: HSH Blake has proven to be a reliable jumper at the 5* level, boasting a history of 1 clear round and one 4-fault round (50%) from his two attempts.
  • Recent Form: The horse’s performance over his last six FEI runs remains sharp, maintaining a low average of just 1.3 jump penalties.
  • How she wins: While she trails the leader by 6.3 points, she maintains a 17% win probability. It feels likely that the leader will add at least a rail and maybe more, and Diabolo hasn’t jumped at five star and hasn’t jumped after a long format cross country in a couple of years. Blake will want to be in place to pick up any pieces. 

The Reliable Veteran: David Doel & Galileo Nieuwmoed

David Doel and Galileo Nieuwmoed sit in 4th place on a score of 30.8. While they aren't necessarily "clear round machines," they bring a level of consistency to the final phase that makes them a threat to the podium.

• • Consistent Damage Control: While a clear round isn't guaranteed—having jumped clear in 3 of 8 five-star rounds (38%) - the pair is remarkably good at keeping the rails to a minimum.
  • The One-Rail Trend: They tend to avoid the "blowout" rounds that plague others; their average of 3.3 jump penalties over their last six FEI runs suggests they are far more likely to take a single rail than multiple.
  • Performance vs. The Field: Their Adjusted SJ average of -1.0 indicates that even with a rail down, they typically still perform better than the average of their competitors.
  • Podium Potential: The data reflects this reliability, giving them a 33% chance of climbing into the Top 3 if the less-experienced horses ahead of them struggle.

The Experience Factor: Tim Price

While the top four are all chasing their first-ever 5* win, Tim Price (currently 5th on Vitali) is the multi-time winner at the level.

• • The Record: Tim has 6 career 5* wins. A victory today would tie him with Ros Canter and leave only seven riders in history with more wins.
  • Consistent Excellence: He is also aiming for his 25th Top 5 finish at the 5* level. Only three riders have top 5 finishes since 2008 (William Fox-Pitt, Oliver Townend, Michael Jung)
  • The Vitali Factor: Vitali has struggled with show jumping in the past, notoriously never jumping clear at 5* in 9 attempts, and averaging 13.8 jumping faults at 5*. If Tim can hold position, he will be delighted. 

What does 6th-10th look like?

Tom McEwen and Brookfield Quality lead this group in 6th, and they are statistically "dangerous" - they’ve jumped clear in half of their five-star runs and generally perform about 2.7 penalties better than the average horse here. They started as pre-competition favorites, now the question will be whether they finish in top 5.

Right behind them is Boyd Martin on Commando 3, who is likely the best finisher in the field.. They’ve never had a rail down in their five-star career and have averaged a perfect zero jumping penalties over their last six international runs. If the horses at the very top have a bad day, Boyd is exactly the kind of rider to capitalize and move right up that leaderboard. Boyd will be disappointed not to be closer to the top.

Another rider who would have expected to be closer is World No.1 Harry Meade in 8th with Superstition. This pair usually keeps it to one rail or less.

The biggest climber from the cross country phase is very likely to climb again today. Australian duo Sophia Hill and Humble Glory are now in 9th (from 23rd) after a clear inside the time round yesterday. This horse hasn’t had a rail in any competitions since 2022, and has jumped 15 clears in a row including Burghley and Maryland.  They are very likely to hold their position or even climb higher.

Rounding out the Top 10 is the 2008 winner Phillip Dutton, riding Possante. This pair have had a mixed 12 months and a clear today would be a big. They have had one down in three of their last four four stars. 

Humble Glory and Commando feel the most likely to climb and push for a top 5 finish.

History on Their Side?

Recent trends show that the cross-country phase is often the decider; 7 of the last 10 cross-country leaders at this event have gone on to win the title. Monica Spencer will be hoping to maintain that trend today. If she is clear, or keeps it to one rail, she wins. Her cushion might be even bigger if Will doesn't jump clear. 

We will have a brand new Kentucky winner this afternoon. Enjoy the action.