Grand Prix of Rotterdam 2026 by the Numbers: Point Break the Favourite, La Contessa in Form

The model predicts eight clear rounds in the first round of the Grand Prix of Rotterdam, and it expects one horse to be there more reliably than any other. Point Break and Ben Maher carry a 56% clear chance, well clear of a field bunched from 47% down. They also top the win chances at 14%, double the next horse.

The challenger is the form horse, not the favourite. La Contessa and Marilyn Little lead the form table with a 71% clear rate over the last 12 months at CSI5* and championship 1.60m. The numbers disagree at the very top, and that is the story of this Grand Prix.

The favourite: Point Break

Point Break is the second-rated horse in the world at 788 Elo. He has not competed much this season, with Windsor and Aachen his only outings, and he has not knocked a pole in either. At Royal Windsor Horse Show, the pair finished second in the CSI5* Rolex Grand Prix behind Victor Bettendorf and Qwando van de Rispen after a five-way jump-off.

He tops both the clear chances and the win chances here. The model and the recent form agree he is the one to beat. The single question is sharpness off limited mileage. It has been exactly 917 days since Ben Maher last won a CSI5* Grand Prix or World Cup class, can today be the day that streak breaks?

The form horse: La Contessa

Marilyn Little and La Contessa arrive in peak timing. They were triple clear in Friday's Longines League of Nations, clear in the first two rounds and clear over the jump-off track. In March they finished second in the 500,000 dollar CSI5* Grand Prix at WEF Week 9, the first five-star Grand Prix podium of the partnership.

The win column still reads zero at five-star. La Contessa leads the form table and the head-to-head clear rate, but a first five-star Grand Prix win is the missing line. If she comes through the first round, the breakthrough is on the cards.

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Win chances

The history

Karl Cook is the defending champion, winning in 2025 on Caracole de la Roque by 0.92 seconds, the widest margin in the recent record. He was the first American to win this Grand Prix since Lucy Davis in 2015. Rotterdam is usually decided by far less. Sanne Thijssen took 2021 by 0.03 seconds, and most other recent margins sit between 0.31 and 0.51. The Dutch home record is strong, with Houtzager in 2024, Greve in 2023 and Thijssen in 2021.

Clear rates shown at CSI5* 1.60m and major championship level unless stated. Win chances are EquiRatings model projections ahead of the Grand Prix of Rotterdam.