Millstreet CCI4*-S 2026 Preview

Jonelle Price & Senor Crocodillo head the EquiRatings Prediction Centre for the Millstreet CCI4*-S with a 30% win chance — more than double the next horse on the list.

She is the clear favourite. But the data has one question to answer first.

You can listen to the full Connolly's Red Mills Eventing Podcast preview show with Sam Watson and Nicole Brown here.

The podium according to the Prediction Centre

Full Prediction Centre: Click here

What it takes to win at Millstreet

Recent winners of the CCI4*-S at Millstreet have come from a wide range of performance levels. The highest winning HPR in the modern era came from Thomas Carlile and Upsilon back in 2018 on a remarkable 107 — one of the highest HPRs ever recorded at this level. The lowest came from Kirsty Chabert and Classic Vi in 2022 on an 84.

The two best show jumpers are at the top of the board

The CCI4*-S at Millstreet runs in the unusual order of dressage, cross-country, then show jumping. The last time the final phase here was show jumping was 2018 — and Thomas Carlile and Upsilon won the lot on a 17.3, the lowest winning score ever recorded at the venue. A clean show jumper on the final day has history on their side at Millstreet.

But here's the question in the margin

The model's 30% favourite has cleared cross-country in only six of his last 10 international rounds, and on courses where most of the field was getting round. The favourite is favoured on his dressage and his show jumping. The cross-country is a different conversation. Millstreet's cross-country clear rate in 2025 was just 61%. If Mike Etherington-Smith's track bites the way it bit last year, the door opens for the chasers.

Calmaro: the profile that fits Millstreet

Four numbers tell the story for Joseph Murphy & Calmaro:

An XCJ10 of 100% means he is clear cross-country in every one of his last 10 international rounds. An XCJ10 Adj of +30% is the best in the field. A TSP of 84% puts him among the field's quickest cross-country horses. And a 6RA of 31.7 is in line with the favourite's recent dressage form.

Calmaro has been clear on the days when the field has struggled, he is quick, and his first phase is the equal of the favourite's. The last Irish winner of a CCI4*-S at Millstreet was Michael McNally on Eclipto in 2021. Four years on, Joseph Murphy and Calmaro are the realistic shot at flipping that.

Highly Suspicious: building towards Aachen

Cosby Green & Highly Suspicious bring one of the stronger profiles in the field on paper. An Elo of 616 is the second-highest in the field. A TSP of 88% is the second-fastest in the field. An SJ6 Adj of −3.75 makes them the second-best show jumper in the field. The horse was 4th at Luhmühlen on a 95 HPR and 11th at Pau on an 89.

Highly Suspicious is now being coached by Jonelle Price, and a competitive run at Millstreet is exactly the kind of result that could put Cosby and Highly Suspicious in the conversation for the US team at Aachen.

Tulara Chicouve: one to watch, not to lock in

Hannah Klep brings 17-year-old Tulara Chicouve to Millstreet from Australia. The EquiRatings numbers flag a horse with two real strengths: a TSP of 91% — the fastest horse in the field — and an XCJ10 Adj of +29%, second only to Calmaro. When she is at her best, she is clean across country and quick.

But her recent Australian form tells a more complicated story.

Time penalties have been a feature of every run except Scone, and her HPRs are sitting some way below the field's leaders. A long flight from Australia adds another variable. She is an interesting horse on the data, but a lot has to go right.

Kilroe Frolic: Sam's pick at 1%

Buried at 1% on the Prediction Centre is Sian Coleman & Kilroe Frolic — but on the podcast Sam Watson is having "a fiver each way" on her.

"That would not be a surprise winner of this class if she goes for it."

The numbers behind the gut call: a 6RA of 32.2 for a competitive first phase, an SJ6 Adj of −2.07 making her one of the field's better jumpers, and an OBP of 69% — meaning she beats roughly seven out of every 10 horses she lines up against. She was second in a 100+ start three-star short at Thoresby, exactly the style of attacking course that Mike Etherington-Smith builds at Millstreet.

The model has Kilroe Frolic at 1%. Sam has her on the podium.

The form book says Senor Crocodillo. The cross-country numbers say Calmaro. The speed gun says Tulara Chicouve. The gut says Kilroe Frolic. Who is on your podium?

The full preview show with Sam Watson and Nicole Brown is available on the Connolly's Red Mills Eventing Podcast here.