Prediction Centre - Top 5 on Win Chance for the US Equestrian Open Final at Morven Park

The stage is set for the US Equestrian Open of Eventing at Morven Park (9th to 12th of October 2025). With a $200k prize fund, the biggest ever at CCI4*-L level, up for grabs, we ran our predictive model on the early entries. The EquiRatings Prediction Centre is updated as every entry and every score happens - giving fans a near real time view on the predicted winners on paper.

What is the Prediction Centre?

The Eventing Prediction Centre, developed by EquiRatings over a number of years, applies advanced predictive analytics to years of international eventing results. Trained on millions of rows of data, the model simulates each competition ten thousand times - breaking performance down by each phase.

Each combination is given a probability distribution of likely outcomes, from dressage scores to cross-country clear rates, which are then aggregated to calculate finishing scores and win chances. While no model can perfectly foresee the future, testing against past competitions shows its accuracy: combinations given a 25% chance of winning really do win about one in four times.

For fans, media, and athletes alike, it provides an accessible, data-driven way to understand who is most likely to succeed on the day.For us, it helps us turn an entry list into stories and angles.

Here's a look at the top five contenders as decided by the model:

Boyd Martin sits at the top of the Prediction Center with Miks Master C with a 19% win chance. Miks Master C, nicknamed Mikki, is a 13-year-old Swedish Warmblood gelding by Mighty Magic out of Qui Luma CBF. He's owned by Ocala Horse Properties LLC and Debby Palmer. Mikki, previously ridden by Liz Halliday, brings an impressive resume including four CCI4*-S victories and a 3rd place finish at Kentucky CCI5* back in 2023 (it was their CCI5* debut). He is rated 742 on EquiRatings Elo, the third-highest rated US horse. 

This marks only Boyd's third outing with the horse but their partnership is already showing promise. After a 9th place finish at Bromont CCI3*-S (double clear with time penalties) and a 4th at The Fork at Tryon CCI4*-S (again double clear with time), the question is: will they push for maximum speed at Morven Park? Given the stakes, I would expect so.

What to expect:

Likely dressage score between 25-27. Excellent Cross Country Jumping with proven speed around Aachen, Kentucky and here at Morven (with Maya Black, CCI4*-S). One rail down in the show jumping across the last four internationals and clear on both occasions with Boyd. They have a huge chance and are a deserved joint favourite. 

Sharing the top prediction percentage is William Coleman aboard Off The Record, a horse that needs no introduction. ‘Timmy’ is owned by the Off The Record Syndicate LLC having been sourced through Richard Sheane (Cooley Farms) as a four-year-old.

In 2021, this pair became the first US combination to ever win the prestigious CCIO4*-S at CHIO Aachen, Germany and they were part of the U.S. team that won silver at the 2022 FEI Eventing World Championships in Pratoni del Vivaro, Italy, where Coleman finished 7th individually.

Only two runs this year, a fourth place finish at Aachen and a win at the Kentucky CCI4*-S with a dressage score of 21.8 - their best test together as a combination and the best test that competition has ever seen.

Timmy is the highest-rated US horse currently in the sport based on the EquiRatings Elo (779) and ranks as the second-highest rated US horse of all time, trailing only the legendary Mai Baum. This combination brings both proven championship experience and current top form to Morven Park.

What to expect:

It will possibly all be decided by their dressage test. When winning Kentucky CCI4*-S this year they hit a PB of 21.8 but next time out was 35.6 at Aachen. Somewhere in between is most likely but if they do take the lead after the dressage phase, the speed and jumping power means they will prove very difficult to get past. 

HSH Blake - the well known 'young gun' of 2024. Caroline Pamukcu's Olympic Games’ partner comes into Morven Park with a 14% win chance and hot off a 3rd place finish at Plantation Field last weekend. Originally sourced in Ireland by Caroline's business partner Kelley Hutchinson of Hutchinson Sport Horses, Caroline and Blake won the individual gold medal and team silver medal at Pan American Games in Santiago, Chile back in 2023.

Their standout performance at the top level came at Tryon last year, when they finished on their dressage score to win the CCI4*-L . That victory earned them their highest-rated performance to date with a High Performance Rating (HPR) of 98. Blake is the highest-rated 10-year-old in the US with an Elo rating of 675. It hasn’t been a perfect run since Paris but they are undoubtedly one of the global talents to look forward to between now and LA28. 

What to expect:

Dressage is likely to be between 27 - 30. They have shown cross country speed at this level - winning Tryon last year with a clear inside time. It will be the first test on the hills of Morven Park. Excellent show jumper too - clear in 22 of their 27 career internationals. Huge contender and strong finisher. Likely decided by their time on Saturday. 

Boyd Martin and Shanroe Cooley, also previously competed by Liz Halliday, arrive with a 13% win chance. ‘Dallas' is an Irish Sport Horse gelding owned by Ocala Horse Properties. Having spent the winter competing in the hunter and jumper rings with Peter Wylde and Eleanor Pieters in Florida, he has gone back to eventing, joining Boyd’s string.

Under Liz Halliday's guidance, Shanroe Cooley established himself with top-five finishes at both CCI4*-S and CCI4*-L. He is currently rated 661 on EquiRatings Elo - the second-highest rated 10-year-old in the US behind only HSH Blake.

With Boyd, the 10-year-old gelding has actually produced better placings than his stablemate in their limited outings together. Boyd and Shanroe Cooley won Bromont CCI3*-S and finished 3rd at Tryon CCI4*-S having accrued less time penalties than Miks Master C.

What to expect:

Shanoe Cooley has an excellent cross country record at international level with only one non-prefect jumping round from 22 international starts. They also have an exceptional show jumping record with one rail in the last 13 international competitions. It feels likely that they start around the 30 mark but with a time test promised at Morven Park, this horse is a likely podium finisher and could take the win. 

Rounding out the top five is another 10-year-old Very Dignified. This is a newer partnership for Will Coleman, landing in his string from the Irish rider Robbie Kearns, who successfully produced the horse up to a win in the CCI4*-L at Kilguilkey, in Ireland. The mare is owned by Jerome Broussard, Gloria Callen, and Elizabeth Lendrum.

While they've completed only one four-star together - a 6th place at The Fork at Tryon with a pole down and 18.8 time penalties - the potential is clearly there. In classic Coleman style, he has already improved the horse's dressage phase, achieving the horse's best ever dressage score of 25.8 (3*S at Tryon in May).

What to expect:

Will has improved the first phase meaning a sub 28 start is very possible. They finish strongly (only one rail in the last six internationals, including a clear with Robbie at Boekelo in this long format style). Will hasn't yet pushed for time on their rides to date but we expect it to be there given the record with Robbie. This one is under the radar but has lots to like and shouldn't be a surprise winner.

Stay Connected with the US Equestrian Open

The final of the US Equestrian Open is running at Morven Park in Leesburg, Virginia from the 9th-12th of October. It is the culmination of the series that has been running at CCI4*-S competitions in the US over the past year. With $200,000 on the line in prize money, it is going to be an extremely exciting and competitive competition.

If you want to know more about the US Equestrian Open:

• Follow the instagram page: @usequestrianopen
• Listen to the podcast: The US Equestrian Open Podcast
• Check out the website: usequestrianopen.org