Rolex Grand Prix of Falsterbo 2026: Belgians in Form & Point Break as Favourite

Ben Maher brings the second-highest-rated horse in the world to Falsterbo. Point Break sits on a 791 Elo at CSI5* 1.60m, six points behind King Edward. The EquiRatings model makes the pair favourite for Sunday's Rolex Grand Prix at 9 percent. That figure is the story of the class.

A 9 percent favourite means a wide-open Grand Prix. Nine combinations sit within five points of the top. The CSI5* 1.60m runs as Two Round Table A, so the clears from round one come back and the second round is decided on the clock.

The favourite

This is only Point Break's third five-star Grand Prix of 2026. The first two both landed on the podium. Maher won with the stallion in Rotterdam and finished runner-up at Windsor. Two starts, two podiums, one win. He has campaigned the horse lightly and saved him for the biggest classes.

The form table backs the ranking. Point Break has jumped two rounds at CSI5* 1.60m in 2026 and cleared both, a 100 percent clear rate off a small sample. The Elo says proven. The 2026 record says precise.

Belgium brings the form

The two best current strike rates in the field are Belgian. Impress-K van't Kattenheye and Thibeau Spits have cleared 10 of 12 at CSI5* 1.60m in 2026, an 83 percent rate. Spits won the Grand Prix at Fontainebleau and finished second at the Dutch Masters and at the St Tropez Longines Global Champions Tour Grand Prix.

Casual DV Z and Pieter Devos sit at 82 percent, 9 clears from 11. Devos has four five-star Grand Prix or World Cup podiums this season, matched only by Martin Fuchs and Conner Jei. He was second and third in Doha, third at the Dutch Masters and third in Basel. Casual DV Z draws early at number 6, so the form horse answers the question before most of the favourites walk in.

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Win chances

Point Break leads, then a four-way second tier a single point back. Greya, Casual DV Z and James Kann Cruz all sit on 7 percent.

Two rounds, one clock

Round one is the filter. EquiRatings predicts 10 clears. The first-round clear rate here since 2014 is 21 percent. Round two opens up: half the horses that get through go clear again, a 50 percent rate. Nobody is safe to pencil into the second round, and the favourites carry a one-in-three chance of a rail in round one.

The second round behaves like a jump-off, so the speed record matters. James Kann Cruz and Shane Sweetnam own the best of it: 19 clears from 22 jump-off rounds at CSI5* and championship 1.60m, an 86 percent rate, with 20 podiums. They draw late at 46 and will know the time to chase. Greya and Kent Farrington convert better than anyone, 11 wins off a 76 percent clear rate. Casual DV Z clears at 73 percent in a jump-off but has yet to win one, a run of near-misses Devos will want to end.

The history

Sweden has won this Grand Prix three times since 2014, through Peder Fredricson in 2019, Rolf-Goran Bengtsson in 2016 and Alexander Zetterman in 2014. Three former champions are back in the field. Andre Thieme won on DSP Chakaria in 2022, Steve Guerdat took it in 2017, and Martin Fuchs won on Conner Jei in 2023.

The margins are small. Billy Twomey won by 0.09 seconds in 2018, Fredricson by 0.24 in 2019, Thieme by 0.27 in 2022. Fredricson's winning horse carried a 779 Elo, the highest in the table. Point Break arrives on 791.

Clear rates and Elo shown at CSI5* 1.60m and major championship level unless stated. Win chances are EquiRatings model projections ahead of the Rolex Grand Prix of Falsterbo.