Rolex Grand Prix of La Baule 2026: The Favourite, the Form Horse and the Field

Richard Vogel and United Touch S top the win chances for Sunday's Rolex Grand Prix of La Baule. The number behind that sits on one line. Nine jump-off clears at CSI5* 1.60m, nine wins. When this horse leaves the poles up against the clock, he wins.

United Touch S is joint-second in the world on a 789 Elo, the highest rating in this field. He has already won three Grand Prix or World Cup classes in 2026, at Basel, 's-Hertogenbosch and Aachen, and was European Champion in 2025. The model gives him an 11% win chance, top of the field.

The one question

The first round is the only real question. United Touch S has yet to jump a clear round at La Baule, though Vogel has a Nations Cup podium at the venue. The first round here is unforgiving, an 18% clear rate since 2015. Get the favourite into the jump-off, and the record is hard to argue with.

The challenger: Dynastie De Beaufour

The form horse is not the favourite. Dynastie De Beaufour and Nina Mallevaey top the recent-form table with a 74% clear rate at CSI5* 1.60m over the last 12 months, off 23 rounds. The mare has just gone 14 straight clears at the level, the fourth horse in modern jumping to do that. A 9% win chance puts the French pair second only to the favourite, level with Laura Kraut and Bisquetta.

The gap is wins. Dynastie has three career victories to United Touch S's twelve, and the cleaner clear rate of the two, 55% to 48% at the level. He has finished the job far more often.

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Win chances

The first-round hurdle

For Round 1, two combinations share top billing on the clear-chance model: United Touch S and Hello Folie with Scott Brash, both at 62%. Dynastie De Beaufour follows on 55%, Iron Dames Singclair on 54%. With an 18% historic first-round clear rate and a predicted eight clears, getting through Round 1 is most of the work. The jump-off opens up once you are there, with a 45% clear rate.

Decided on fractions

La Baule rarely gives a comfortable finish. Three of the last five editions were settled inside half a second. Kent Farrington and Greya won by 0.12, Nicola Philippaerts by 0.32 in 2023, Nicolas Delmotte by 0.23 in 2021. When the margin is bigger, it tends to be a clear gap instead: Beth Underhill won by 1.23, Daniel Deusser by 1.14.

The top rating does not always win. Deusser took it on an Elo of 688, the lowest winning figure in the table, and Pedro Junqueira Muylaert on 664 in 2017. Home interest rests with Mallevaey and Dynastie, and with Floyd Des Pres. No French rider has won this since Delmotte in 2021.

Clear rates and Elo shown at CSI5* 1.60m and major championship level unless stated. Win chances are EquiRatings model projections ahead of the Grand Prix.