Stopwatches, Stats, and High Stakes: Who the Numbers Favour for Cross Country Day at Blenheim

With dressage over and done with, the leaderboard is loaded with talent and exciting combinations. Yet still, all we really want to talk about is the London 52 and fischerChipmunk FRH rivalry (well us at EquiRatings HQ do anyways). Bu we need to look at the bigger picture - tomorrow is the day that will decide this championship. However as we all know, things can and do go wrong for the favourites - that’s what makes cross country day so compelling.

Here’s what to watch for tomorrow because knowing the podium is one thing, but knowing the story behind it is even better.

Blenheim Palace as a Venue

Blenheim has has been the stage for some of the sport’s most defining moments. The last time the European Championships came here in 2005, Zara Phillips and Toytown captured both individual and team gold for Great Britain. 

The venue’s record tells its own story. Historically, only about 60% of combinations jump clear at Blenheim, and just 10% make the time. Those figures mirror the wider European Championship average (58% clear, 13% inside the time) though the difficulty to make the time swings dramatically year to year - normally depending on the ground and weather conditions.  At Malmö 2013, more than a third of the field caught the clock while at Haras du Pin in 2023, just 2% managed it. But with Blenheim's rolling hills and the rumours that "It's been built for the Brits," we could be in for a dramatic time test.

The Podium’s Cross Country Metrics

The overnight dressage podium is important at the Europeans (well duh). No but it really is - the last 10 European champions have came from the top three after dressage. So while anything can happen, history says it's one of these three that will clinch gold on Sunday.

1. fischerChipmunk FRH & Michael Jung - 18.3

XCJ10: 80%  Rank in Class: 24th  TSP: 87%  Speed Rank: 24th

Michael Jung’s fscherChipmunk FRH is one of the legends of this sport but his record is not without blips. While the raw clear rate is strong, the lower speed rankings compared to the British challengers highlight where he might be vulnerable. That said no one manages championship pressure like Jung and this combination have managed to deliver before.

XC time: 15:20

2. London 52 & Laura Collett - 20.6

XCJ10: 90%  Rank in Class: 5th  TSP: 96%  Speed Rank: 5th

London 52 has one of the best reputations (and one of the most loyal fan clubs) in the sport and the numbers back that up. A 90% XC clear rate and the speed metrics confirm he’s one of the fastest in the field. Already a Blenheim winner, Laura will know how to deliver under pressure here.

XC time: 15:10

3. JL Dublin & Tom McEwen - 26.2

XCJ10: 80%  Rank in Class: 8th  TSP: 95%  Speed Rank: 8th

JL Dublin is as proven as they come, having already claimed the European title in 2021 with Nicola Wilson. Now with Tom McEwen, he’s back at the top level with unfinished business, having come agonisingly close to a major win on several occasions. With speed metrics right up there with London 52, if they deliver their usual consistency, they’ll be right in the mix.

XC time: 14:00

Speed Horses in the Spotlight

If the time does play a huge part, there are a handful of combinations who stand out on paper for their pace and have potential to move up the leaderboard.

1. D. Day (Caroline Harris) - 34.4 (30th)

XCJ10: 90%  Adj XCJ10: 26%  TSP: 98%  Speed Rank: 1st

Caroline Harris makes her senior championship debut with the Pau 2024 5* winner D. Day. One of the fastest horses in the sport, his 98% Top Speed Percentage is unmatched in this field. With a 90% clear rate across his last ten runs and proven success in heavy going, this is a combination that could climb the leaderboard.

XC time: 11:55

2. Erin (Melody Johner) - 31.5 (18th)

XCJ10: 90%  Adj XCJ10: 29%  TSP: 96%  Speed Rank: 2nd

Still just ten years old, Erin is competing at only her second CCI4*-L. However, they have 100% strike rate so far! Melody and Erin won the mares first at Strzegom this spring, jumping double clear and adding only 1.2 penalties in show jumping to their dressage score. Switzerland’s Melody Johner has a genuine rising star here, combining 90% reliability with speed that could pile pressure on the established names.

XC time: 12.05

3. The Phantom of the Opera (Calvin Böckmann) - 30.9 (16th)

XCJ10: 70%  Adj XCJ10: 5%  TSP: 96%  Speed Rank: 3rd

Few horses are quicker than Phantom and few riders attack cross country with as much confidence as Calvin Böckmann. At just 24, he makes his senior championship debut after being an Olympic reserve last year. With a second at Aachen and fifth here at Blenheim in 2023 already on their record, this German duo bring serious speed to the table.

XC time: 14:30

Roll on Cross Country Day

At eight of the last ten European Championships, the cross country leaders have gone on to win gold - yet Blenheim has a habit of finding the weak spots in even the strongest contenders.

Tomorrow, two of the sport’s best -  London 52 and fischerChipmunk FRH will be doing everything in their power to not add any penalties while the pressure stays on from behind with JL Dublin and the speed horses will be looking to break into the frame.

Tomorrow, we are one step closer to knowing who will be the 2025 European Champion.

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