The 100+ Club: How April Predicts August
The Burghley trophy. Olympic gold. Championship medals. These moments capture headlines and define careers but they're rarely surprises. The winners announce themselves months earlier - most people just aren't paying attention.
The data tells us that often those podium finishes and championship medals are rarely sudden breakthroughs. More often, they're the culmination of a pattern that starts months earlier at events you might not think to watch - places like Thoresby, Fontainebleau, or Carolina.
To spot these patterns, we use the High Performance Rating (HPR), an EquiRatings metric designed to measure the true quality of a performance. It accounts for variables such as the strength of the field, winning margins, and course difficulty. HPR provides an objective gauge for a sport where not all wins or scores are equal.
Consider the typical early season, the period running through the end of April but excluding the major five-stars. The average four-star HPR during this window sits at 67. Even among the top 50 four-star performances of each early season, the average is 94. Breaking through the 100 HPR barrier before May is exceptionally rare - it's happened in just 0.4% of all early season runs at four-star over the past decade.
Which makes it all the more meaningful when a horse does crack that threshold. When a performance hits triple digits in the spring, it's not just a good result. It's a signal that something special is building, often months before the world takes notice.
The 100+ Club
Big championship performances rarely emerge from thin air. The '100+ Club'—those horses who crack the 100 mark at four-star during the early season—reveals a notable pattern: exceptional spring form almost always translates to major results later on in the season.
Amande De B’Neville
Not many people saw Amande de B'Neville and Julia Krajewski's individual gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics coming. But if you looked closely enough, it wasn't that surprising. 'Mandy' posted a 102 HPR at Saumur in the early season, followed up with a 100 in Luhmühlen later that summer - all before flying out to Japan and earning her medal.
Miks Master C
Miks Master C seemed to come out of nowhere when he finished third at Kentucky 5* and then backed it up with a top-five at Aachen in 2023 with Liz Halliday. But the real warning sign came earlier that season - a 104 HPR at Carolina that proved the ability and the class were already there, even if most people missed it.
London 52
While London 52’s medal in Paris was not a surprise, it was still a breakthrough moment for Laura Collett after attending four previous championships as a combination without winning an individual medal. ‘Dan’s’ huge 108 HPR at Burnham Market early in the season signalled that 2024 would be different. A 107 at Bicton later that spring only added momentum, carrying the partnership all the way to individual Olympic bronze in Paris.
Valmy Biats
Valmy Biats is the only horse in the last decade to post two 100+ HPRs in a single early season. In 2024, Valmy and Emily King recorded a 106 at Thoresby Park and a 101 at Burnham Market. What followed? A fourth place at Badminton in May and a top-five finish at Aachen - two career-defining results that the data had predicted months earlier.
The Takeaway
Don't miss the early season. Tune into events like Montelibretti, Thoresby, and Luhmühlen to see the story build ahead of the World Games in Aachen. And of course, follow EquiRatings to see who hits these 100+ HPRs so you can call the medalists before your friends have even heard their names!
Did you know?
At EquiRatings, we rate every single horse and every single performance in international eventing. Whether you’re seeking a young prospect with championship potential or a proven performer ready for the next step, data-driven insights help reveal future stars long before the rest of the world catches on.
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