The Definition of Pressure: Ireland, Clear Favourite, But Still Must Overcome the Odds

Ireland comes into today’s Nations Cup as the standout team, holding the top spot in the predictions with a commanding 34% win chance. But in a sport where anything can happen, and usually does, being the favourite only adds to the pressure. Here's why all eyes are on Ireland, and why victory is far from guaranteed.

Nations Cup showjumping has many faces. Sometimes it’s a two-horse race, like Ireland versus Switzerland in 2023, where the shape of the contest is clear, the rivalry sharp, and the fans know exactly where the threat is coming from. That clarity can make defeat possible in people’s minds, because the opponent is obvious and strong.

Other times, the competition is wide open. Three or four nations all bunched at the top of the win chances, co-favourites pushing each other, and fans walking in with managed expectations, knowing it’s going to be a dogfight.

Today is neither of those days. Today, Ireland stands alone. Clearly the strongest team, a 34% favourite, far out in front of their rivals. And yet, the EquiRatings model reminds us: that still means a 64% chance they don’t win. Their opponents aren’t a single powerhouse nation. They are seven different teams, each with a small chance, but together holding the statistical edge. The threat is collective, not singular.

That creates a special kind of pressure. With no headline rival to point at, no single team the fans can fear in advance, if Ireland don’t bring this one home it will feel like a huge loss because on paper, this is theirs to win. And that’s the paradox of elite sport: you can be the best, and still the odds say you probably won’t win.

That’s why Nations Cup showjumping is an absolute cauldron. When you know you’re the best but the numbers are still against you, that is the definition of pressure. That is top-level equestrian sport.