The Final Battle: Who Will Claim European Gold at Casas Novas?
A wide-open Individual Final promises drama as Europe’s elite jumpers chase the 2025 title in A Coruña.

The day of the final has arrived. After three rounds of high-pressure jumping, the 2025 European Championship reaches its dramatic conclusion today at Casas Novas, where a new champion, or perhaps a repeat one, will be crowned. The stakes could not be higher: 13 combinations sit within four penalties of the lead, the leaderboard is tightly packed, and the stage is set for a thrilling showdown. History shows that position after Day 3 matters, but with clear rounds more plentiful this year than usual, today could defy the script.
History Favors the Front-Runners
Over the past seven editions of this championship, only one eventual gold medalist ranked outside the top three heading into the final day. The last six champions have all been on the podium after Day 3, a powerful trend that underscores the importance of position at this stage.
Richard Vogel and United Touch S hold the narrowest of leads with an impressive score of just 0.01 penalties and a win chance of 28% according to the EquiRatings Prediction Centre. But close behind are Scott Brash & Hello Folie in silver position on 1.08 penalties and defending champion Steve Guerdat on Albfuehren’s Iashin Sitte in bronze on 1.19 penalties. History suggests this leading trio are best positioned to turn their advantage into gold.
Can Guerdat Make History Again?
Only two riders, David Broome and Paul Schockemöhle, have ever defended an Individual European title, and no one has done it for 40 years. Steve Guerdat has the chance to join this exclusive club and, remarkably, to do so on a different horse than he rode to victory in 2023. Guerdat and Albfuehren's Iashin Sitte have been faultless so far and are one of ten combinations who haven’t incurred a penalty all week, a record that keeps the defending champion firmly in contention. But with a win probability of 9%, he will need to deliver two more clear rounds and withstand fierce pressure from riders hungry for their first European title.
Tight Margins and Rising Stars
The depth of this final field adds to the unpredictability. Ten pairs, including Gilles Thomas and Ermitage Kalone, who helped Belgium secure Team Gold, have jumped clear throughout the championship. Three female athletes, Nadja Peter Steiner, Janika Sprunger, and Sophie Hinners, are all within one rail of the lead, hoping to become the first female medallist since Meredith Michaels-Beerbaum’s gold in 2007.
Statistically, clear rounds have been more common this week than the historical averages, but over the past 7 European Championships the Individual Final clear rates averages at 21% for Round 1 and 28% for Round 2, suggesting today’s contest could remain intensely close right to the finish.
The margins are tight this year. The Top 13 going into the Individual Final are within 1 rail of one another and 10 pairs have not yet knocked a single rail throughout the championship. In 2023 only 5 combinations were within a rail of one another going into the Milan Individual Final, and 11 within two rails, while only 4 pairs had not incurred a penalty over the first three rounds of competition.
The competition is wide open & the Individual Final promises a thrilling competition.