The Toughest Aachen Grand Prix on Record

Seven of the current top ten Elo-rated horses in the world are here. The field strength of 756 is the highest ever recorded at Aachen — second only to Geneva 2024 (759) among all 5* Grand Prix since 2010. Eight of those top ten horses enter this Grand Prix at their career-best Elo rating. The top horses are not just good. They are in the form of their lives, in Aachen, in the same arena, on the same Sunday.

The model has two joint favourites. The history has four records waiting. The jump-off has a horse that has never lost one. The question the data cannot answer is which one lands.

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The podium according to the model

What it takes to win the Rolex Grand Prix of Aachen

German riders have dominated this race. Eight wins from the last 15 editions, with Great Britain the only other nation to take more than one in that span. The table below shows every winner since 2010 — the Elo rating they carried in, and the margin they won by in the jump-off.

Every winner since 2015 entered this ring with an Elo of at least 721. The 2026 field has no horse in the top ten below 751. The volume of quality this year is without precedent at this venue.

How many will make the jump-off?

The format is two rounds and a jump-off. Across the ten editions from 2015 to 2025, the average R1 clear rate at Aachen is 24% — roughly one horse in four gets through without a fence down. The R2 average is 45%. On average, six horses have contested the jump-off. The model predicts three jump-off starters from an expected ten through Round 2 — below the historical average, reflecting the scale of the field this year.

2016 is the outlier that sets the tone. None through. Not one. This course can do that. 2025 sits at the other extreme — 11 in the jump-off, the most in any edition since 2010. The range across ten years is 0 to 11. In a field this deep, getting through Round 1 is the first problem every favourite has to solve.

Who is on form?

Clear rate at 5* 160cm and above in the last 12 months, for all combinations with at least three non-jump-off rounds in that window.

Dynastie De Beaufour’s 78% from 23 rounds is not a hot streak — it is a large, reliable sample. She clears at nearly four times the venue’s historical R1 average. The model has her at 6%. That gap is the field’s depth, not a question mark over her form.

United Touch S & Richard Vogel — unfinished business

Richard Vogel & United Touch S are a Rolex Grand Slam Live Contender. The combination has 11 wins and 14 podiums at 5* 160cm across their career — the most decorated active record in this field on raw volume. United Touch S carries an Elo of 785 and has two wins at the top level already in 2026. The combination the model rates as most likely to get through this race, and the one with the most to gain from doing so.

The number that shapes everything: United Touch S is unbeaten in a jump-off this year. If they get there, the data says they convert. The career clear rate of 48% (33/69) is the tension in that sentence — below the other joint favourite, below the form table leaders. The 12-month rate of 61% says the horse is improving. Getting through R1 is the first problem. The jump-off handles itself.

Greya & Kent Farrington — the world number one

Kent Farrington & Greya arrive carrying the most decorated recent résumé in this field. Geneva 2025 winner. US Open Champion 2026. World Cup Final Champion 2026. Eight five-star Grand Prix wins between them. Farrington won Aachen before — on Gazelle in 2019 — and returns with a horse ranked world number two by Elo. Farrington is the world number one rider, and has three Rolex Grand Slam victories to his name.

The clear rate story is stronger than her co-favourite’s. 57% career (21/37), 67% in the last 12 months — the third-best form figure in the field behind only Dynastie De Beaufour and DSP Chakaria. The Elo and the form both say she belongs at the top. The course, not the data, is the only thing that can stop her.

DSP Chakaria & Andre Thieme — defending champions, and the horse that could make history

Andre Thieme & DSP Chakaria return to defend their 2024 Rolex title — a year that ended with Martin Fuchs and Leone Jei taking the 2025 crown and writing Grand Slam history in the process. Fuchs became the first rider to win five Rolex Major titles with that victory; Leone Jei became the first horse to win four. The 2025 winners now head to Spruce Meadows as Live Contenders for the Rolex Grand Slam of Show Jumping. Thieme and Chakaria have their own history to chase. A second Aachen victory would make DSP Chakaria the first horse in 23 years to win this Grand Prix twice — only four horses have ever done it: Raffles Apollo (1987–88), Erle II (1949–50), The Rock (1959–61), and Goldfever 3 (2002–03). The form data says the defending champions are not here on sentiment alone.

Four rounds in the last 12 months is a small sample, but both of Chakaria’s 2026 rounds at this level have been clear — only two horses in the field have a 100% 2026 clear rate and multiple starts. Their 2024 Elo coming into the Grand Prix was 730. This year’s Elo is 755. Thieme and Chakaria arrive better than they were when they won.

Marcus Ehning — one win from history

A victory for Marcus Ehning would make him the third rider ever to win the Rolex Grand Prix of Aachen four times, alongside General Piero d’Inzeo and Nick Skelton. His two previous titles came in 2018 on Misanto Pret A Tout and 2023 on Stargold. Three career Aachen podiums. Three different horses. The record is built on consistency across a decade, not one dominant partnership.

Hello Jefferson — a record seventh start

Scott Brash & Hello Jefferson become the first combination on record (since 2010) to start in seven Aachen Grands Prix. Three podiums here together. Brash won Aachen in 2015 on Hello Sanctos and has three podiums at the venue across his career — tied with Ehning as the most of any active rider. Hello Jefferson’s 58% 12-month clear rate from 24 rounds is the deepest data sample in the form table. Twenty-four rounds at this level in one year. That is volume most horses in this field will never reach.

The model says United Touch S and Greya. The form table says Dynastie De Beaufour. The jump-off record says United Touch S. The history says DSP Chakaria. In the toughest Aachen Grand Prix ever staged — who gets the Rolex?